Production Constraints & Planned Production Rates For March-April (as of 1/28/22)

[Suzukiridr14]

Really is all stuff I can do later for cheaper

EXACTLY! and you can do it at your pace!

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[Row Jimmy]

I don’t recall CoPilot 360 being listed in the constraint summaries, I’m guessing it’s a chip/semiconductor shortage issue?

 

[jeffrol48197]

There is a lot of angst over production, but it really isn’t a mystery.

Ford originally said Maverick production would be max 80k in year 1, with a 40%/60% hybrid/EB mix. That was determined by their market forecasting before the first orders were accepted, as was the option mix.

Clearly the forecasting was shown to be way off base as the orders poured in (seems to be a common problem in the pandemic).

The designated Maverick factory is shared with the Bronco Sport and working 2-3 shifts, so there is limited ability to expand capacity, even if the suppliers could ramp up component production.

So Ford took the unusual step of shutting off new ordering when the total backlog approached the planned capacity limit (Hybrid in November, EB in January). It’s probably around 70-75k total to give some wiggle room for fleet orders.

The forecasters were also wrong on the option mix, especially Lux packages. They spotted the SIBL issue early, which is why it was pulled from the XLT Lux package. But I think they are hopeful their suppliers will accommodate most of the other option forecast mismatches.

So if you have a confirmed order, it will get built before 22MY production ends in Sept/Oct. The might be some corner cases where an order can’t be built due a last minute commodity problem and therefore will be rolled into 2023, but those will be few. If they have 75k orders, there will be 75k units built, unless there is a gross supply chain failure, which is unlikely at this point (there were hybrid certification delays, the gas tank problem, and likely a few others, but there don’t appear to be any big issues at this point).

As for when a particular order gets built, that depends entirely on matching batched orders with available supplier commodities in any particular production week. Hard to know, other than the general rule of thumb that earlier orders are more likely to be produced before later orders. But again, if you have a confirmed order, it will probably get built before 22MY close out (if you don’t have a Ford confirmed order, your stealership lied to you).

All in all, perhaps the biggest failure on Ford’s part is to explain and communicate the ongoing production process issues to everyone who placed orders in good faith.

THis is one of the most thoughtful and well-spoken responses I have read on this forum, and very logical also!!! Well explained...

 

[Dun4791]

In the unusual case where Maverick is fully sold out to customer orders, the allocation game becomes moot and Ford will simply match allocations to confirmed customer retail orders. There is no way they will ship unsold units to one place whilst leaving so many unfulfilled confirmed customer orders hanging elsewhere.

How do you know this to be fact? Do you work for Ford?

 

[paneubert]

How do you know this to be fact? Do you work for Ford?

While this person might not work for Ford, Tim Bartz ”fordvideoguy” does, and has said that Ford will not be scheduling any dealer/stock orders while there are still open customer orders. At least now that the order bank is closed for new orders. Perhaps he was only speaking for his own dealership, but he seemed to be saying it would be a nationwide thing. Which makes sense since the few we see listed for sale are usually customers who backed out.

 

[Thumper477]

Velocity blue XLT hybrid lux package.Ordered 10/20.Got Ford email same day.Have not heard anything since from dealer or Ford.Thats ok.I can wait.I don't care if it is a '22 or a '23 model.I will not drop any equipment to try to get it quicker.The whole idea of special ordering a vehicle is so you can get exactly what you want.Be patient folks.Your Mav will come sooner or later.

 

[Eagle11]

Velocity blue XLT hybrid lux package.Ordered 10/20.Got Ford email same day.Have not heard anything since from dealer or Ford.Thats ok.I can wait.I don't care if it is a '22 or a '23 model.I will not drop any equipment to try to get it quicker.The whole idea of special ordering a vehicle is so you can get exactly what you want.Be patient folks.Your Mav will come sooner or later.

You are at the bottom of the totem pole, I ordered my XLT Hybrid on July 7th. Did get an email saying that my Maverick is to start production the week of Feb 7th. Havn't heard of any other issues from Ford. We shall see, 2 more weeks

 

[NewBernWolf]

So, does this mean they WILL be building currently unscheduled hybrids in May ?

Yes.

 

[MLowe05]

There is a lot of angst over production, but it really isn’t a mystery.

Ford originally said Maverick production would be max 80k in year 1, with a 40%/60% hybrid/EB mix. That was determined by their market forecasting before the first orders were accepted, as was the option mix.

Clearly the forecasting was shown to be way off base as the orders poured in (seems to be a common problem in the pandemic).

The designated Maverick factory is shared with the Bronco Sport and working 2-3 shifts, so there is limited ability to expand capacity, even if the suppliers could ramp up component production.

So Ford took the unusual step of shutting off new ordering when the total backlog approached the planned capacity limit (Hybrid in November, EB in January). It’s probably around 70-75k total to give some wiggle room for fleet orders.

The forecasters were also wrong on the option mix, especially Lux packages. They spotted the SIBL issue early, which is why it was pulled from the XLT Lux package. But I think they are hopeful their suppliers will accommodate most of the other option forecast mismatches.

So if you have a confirmed order, it will get built before 22MY production ends in Sept/Oct. The might be some corner cases where an order can’t be built due a last minute commodity problem and therefore will be rolled into 2023, but those will be few. If they have 75k orders, there will be 75k units built, unless there is a gross supply chain failure, which is unlikely at this point (there were hybrid certification delays, the gas tank problem, and likely a few others, but there don’t appear to be any big issues at this point).

As for when a particular order gets built, that depends entirely on matching batched orders with available supplier commodities in any particular production week. Hard to know, other than the general rule of thumb that earlier orders are more likely to be produced before later orders. But again, if you have a confirmed order, it will probably get built before 22MY close out (if you don’t have a Ford confirmed order, your stealership lied to you).

All in all, perhaps the biggest failure on Ford’s part is to explain and communicate the ongoing production process issues to everyone who placed orders in good faith.

Where have you been all my (forum) life? This post needs to be copied/pasted into about 78% of the threads posted here every day.

 

[davnau]

There is a lot of angst over production, but it really isn’t a mystery.

Ford originally said Maverick production would be max 80k in year 1, with a 40%/60% hybrid/EB mix. That was determined by their market forecasting before the first orders were accepted, as was the option mix.

Clearly the forecasting was shown to be way off base as the orders poured in (seems to be a common problem in the pandemic).

The designated Maverick factory is shared with the Bronco Sport and working 2-3 shifts, so there is limited ability to expand capacity, even if the suppliers could ramp up component production.

So Ford took the unusual step of shutting off new ordering when the total backlog approached the planned capacity limit (Hybrid in November, EB in January). It’s probably around 70-75k total to give some wiggle room for fleet orders.

The forecasters were also wrong on the option mix, especially Lux packages. They spotted the SIBL issue early, which is why it was pulled from the XLT Lux package. But I think they are hopeful their suppliers will accommodate most of the other option forecast mismatches.

So if you have a confirmed order, it will get built before 22MY production ends in Sept/Oct. The might be some corner cases where an order can’t be built due a last minute commodity problem and therefore will be rolled into 2023, but those will be few. If they have 75k orders, there will be 75k units built, unless there is a gross supply chain failure, which is unlikely at this point (there were hybrid certification delays, the gas tank problem, and likely a few others, but there don’t appear to be any big issues at this point).

As for when a particular order gets built, that depends entirely on matching batched orders with available supplier commodities in any particular production week. Hard to know, other than the general rule of thumb that earlier orders are more likely to be produced before later orders. But again, if you have a confirmed order, it will probably get built before 22MY close out (if you don’t have a Ford confirmed order, your stealership lied to you).

All in all, perhaps the biggest failure on Ford’s part is to explain and communicate the ongoing production process issues to everyone who placed orders in good faith.

I think Maverstang is right on. I've posted most of the following in another part of this forum, but it seems like it might belong here. It has to do mostly with Hybrid production numbers for the 2022 Maverick. I may be off, but I don't think by too much. We'll see as the year progresses. I think the estimate of 74,000-81,000 Mavericks to be produced posted elsewhere in this forum s right on the money. I'm estimating 75,000 total, but 80,000 could also be correct, with roughly 30,000 of those Maverick Hybrids, based on what Ford has published so far, and taking into account all the delays. It's a very long post, so if you are at all impatient, that's OK, just move on:

Background: I have a basic Maverick XL Hybrid on order with just a few options, all non-constrained. It was ordered with a deposit on June 15, 2021 and I got my email confirmation on June 17, 2021. Mine was the first Maverick order for my dealer (near Akron, OH) and it took them a couple days to figure out how to get the order into Ford properly with ROVP and convert the reservation (lead) to an order. Got my October email from Ford regarding the Hybrid delays with the promise for the FITS accessories once delivered. Also confirmed my order with Ford Customer Service in August, 2021. Dealer also confirmed the long wait for scheduling, with a call from them on January 27, 2022 saying there is an outside chance it might not get scheduled for MY2022. They wanted to know if I wanted to convert to the 2.0EB (since that day was last order day for the 2.0 EB), cancel, or go ahead and stick with the order as is. I am sticking with it and told them to let it ride. So, still good so far, just a very long wait so far. I don't expect to get a "production scheduled" email until maybe July/August 2022 or perhaps even later.. This dealer has only gotten a handful of 2.0 EB models delivered, and just one Hybrid delivered so far.

I've wanted to try to extrapolate production figures for the Maverick for the 2022 model year for a while now, but until the December, 2021 figures were released, I was missing some information to try to do so. It's just an educated guess based on this latest info, but production and sales of cars have been an interest of mine since the '70s. What can I say, I like numbers.

In looking at production so far, it's looking, to me, that about 75,000 Mavericks will be produced for the now extended 2022 model year. Some relatively small number (likely less than 10%) will be Canada/other non-US trucks. Per a previous posting on Ford Authority, it looks like 2022 Mavericks will be produced until about October 7, 2022 or so, an extension by about two months over what was previously expected. The 2023 Maverick production is now scheduled for week of October 24, 2022. (All subject to change, of course.) SInce Ford has consistently said at best about 40% of production will be Hybrids, that means a split of 30,000 Hybrids and 45,000 2.0 EB drivetrains. To me, that makes sense given all the chip shortages, particularly affecting Ford electrified vehicles and those of other manufacturers. This is all based on what has been produced and sold so far. For example, only 27,140 Mustang Mach-E vehicles were sold in 2021..

Ford had no real incentive to produce many Hybrids after the EPA certification delay tool place. It thus made sense to produce some, so the Hermosillo plant workforce kept up on how to produce them. However, it also made perfect sense to focus on what you could sell and thus book for revenue, which was the 2.0 EB trucks. That's why only 2,165 Maverick Hybrids were sold for 2021, with six for November and the rest for December. Ford announced on November 29, 2021 that OK to Buy for Maverick Hybrids was now in effect and they were shipping them.

So, assuming all this, I extrapolated, given the 2,165 Hybrids delivered and thus sold in 2021. I expect that for the 12 months from December, 2021 (including adding the negligible six from November to the December totals) through November, 2022, there will be at best about 2,500 Hybrids sold per month, on average. That adds up to my estimate of 30,000 Hybrid Mavericks and thus 75,000 total Mavericks for the model year. (The other 45,000 will be the 2.0 EB trucks.) I really doubt Ford will hit anywhere near 100,000 total produced, as Ford production has been down about 20% for 2021 where there is a hybrid option (like the Ford Escape and Lincoln Corsair), and the chip shortage is not really expected to start to ease much until late in 2022. Given the plant production is shared with the Bronco Sport, there are limitations on total plant capacity, and because of the various parts shortages, that capacity is lower than normal. Ford can't just add another shift to the two current shifts or schedule much overtime if the parts are not available.

That means, to sum up, there have been relatively few Hybrids delivered so far out of that 30,000, and is consistent why so many Hybrid trucks are not scheduled for production yet. XLT and Lariat Hybrid trucks will likely continue to get some priority for those that are scheduled, to try to maximize profit in these constrained times. This is also consistent with Ford extending the model year to get more 2022 orders produced and also Jim Farley's recent comments to the press. (Note: I expect only about 3,000 or so base-model $19,995 XL Hybrids like mine will be produced for 2022, since overall the XL is only around 10% of production, per both Ford and as reported on this forum. Given there are about 3,000 Ford dealers in the US, and some hybrid trucks will go outside the US, that means that less than one base model 2022 XL Maverick Hybrid will be delivered per dealer, on average. Some dealers have already delivered a number of XL Hybrids, have more yet scheduled to be built, and have even more yet to be scheduled. So, there will likely be quite a number of dealers who will not see ANY Hybrid XL trucks delivered for 2022., and maybe, some dealers who will not see a Hybrid of any trim level.) It's clear to me that Ford really wants to try to keep it's commitment to all those who ordered a truck sight unseen, but is having real trouble doing so, given the industry parts issues. So, I'm thinking that Ford cut off the 2022 Hybrid orders in November, 2021, because it hit my estimated 30,000 (or some other similar number) order limit or was about to exceed it, or maybe did somewhat exceed it and did not want to make the problem worse than it already was. So, taking the next step, this means there may well be a number of Hybrid orders from smaller dealers and some from larger dealers that could well roll over to MY 2023. By taking this actions, more parts shortages later this production year could mean my number (or maybe Ford's) was and is high. As the order banks were open for the MY 2022 Maverick Hybrid for just over 5 months, that means AT LEAST about 6,000 Hybrids were ordered per month, on average. This also makes sense to me, since we know per this forum at least, that the order rate up till then was at least 60% or so for Hybrids, not the 40% originally expected, and might be a bit higher. 2022 Hybrid orders are thus front-loaded. Of course, only Ford knows the real number of orders and their breakdown, so these are all educated guesses on my part.

On production in general, Ford, and others, are having a tough time making enough electrified vehicles. My son has ordered a 2021 PHEV Escape, also in June, 2021. When it was rolled over to the 2022 model year, the order was amended with a new color choice (the original color chosen was no longer available for 2022) and it just recently got scheduled for February 7, 2022 production. (Different dealer than me.) He has also just ordered a 2022 Mustang Mach-E, which may well roll into 2023. He really wants them for his family, but has been stuck waiting, just like so many of us. He figured he better get this stuff on order, because there may never be a time dealers stock such vehicles. (Note: Tesla has a build to order model and the whole industry is gong this way. We are all part of the transition, with the parts and sometimes worker shortages making the transition worse than expected.)

So, I'm frustrated I don't have my truck, but at the same time, I get it. As of December 31, 2021, only 2,165 of my estimated 30,000 2022 Hybrid trucks ordered have been delivered, and thus sold. That's just over 7%, so almost 93% are yet to be delivered. As I said, I think there will be only a few months where more than 2,500 Hybrids will be produced, and it will take until early October, 2022 (and maybe a bit longer) to get them all produced, Yes, I may be off, but I don't think by too much.

Full disclosure: I am retired from 40 years in IT, and have never worked for Ford or any Ford supplier or dealership. The auto industry and cars in general are a hobby of mine, along with classic recreational boats. My Maverick will be used to tow my three boats, all under 2000 pounds rigged, and I was very excited when Ford formally announced the Maverick on June 8, 2021. In my life so far at my retired age of 69, I have owned 37 cars and trucks, with 13 of them Fords, the rest a variety of makes and models. I am selling a 1997 Toyota Paseo convertible (Toyota Tercel-based) and a 2013 Volvo C70 retractable hardtop convertible (loosely Ford Focus-based) to pay for my Maverick XL Hybrid. (The Volvo C70 was one of those rare convertibles rated to tow 2000 lbs.) Will keep my Bright Red 1973 Ford Mustang convertible with a 250 six and C4 transmission. (I'm into smooth and quiet, not fast and loud. The Maverick Hybrid is perfect.). In realty, I realize I will be lucky to get my XL Hybrid by Labor Day, and maybe not until Thanksgiving, 2022, or even later if rolled to MY 2023. But, hoping for it by Labor Day.

That's the reality of the production today of any electrified vehicle. Even Teslas can take any number of months, depending on the model, and they have been doing it for over 10 years. (Elon Musk just announced that Cybertruck production is now delayed until calendar 2023.) Ford F-150 Lightning truck production will ramp up slowly and will likely take at least a year and a half to fill all converted orders. Ford shut down reservations for those on January 4, 2022. (In all cases, do not confuse reservations with orders. The reservation system is nothing more than a lead generation system for dealers, plus it serves as another way for Ford Marketing to gauge interest in new models. Not all reservations will get converted to a hard order.) Mustang Mach-E vehicles will continue to slowly ramp up through 2022-2023, and PHEV Ford Escapes and Lincoln Corsairs will likely be in very short supply against demand for a couple of years. I consider myself lucky that I ordered my Hybrid Maverick when I did, but I won't be surprised if I don't see my truck by Thanksgiving, 2022.

Yeah, it's a long time, but I need to be patient. At least I'm getting it for the $19,995, plus destination, options, doc fees, and sales tax. About $24,000 out the door, less my Farm Bureau $500 coupon. A true bargain in my opinion for a quite capable truck in today's crazy world. Are there more capable trucks out there? Of course. But, for a retired guy like me, the key question to answer is this: Is a 2022 Maverick XL Hybrid enough truck, at a great price? For ME, the answer is a resounding YES. So, I wait.

I can totally understand the parts sourcing delays and problems, I'm an engineer on medical equipment and even we are having parts back ordered for up to a month or more. What I can not get a straight answer on is being that my order only went in 2 weeks ago, if mine doesn't get built before they start production of the 2023MY, is my Maverick going to be a 2022MY? Is my order just going to be dropped? Or am I going to be buying a vehicle that is already considered a year old when I get it? Dealership is totally clueless can not answer these questions, and to be fair to the dealership, I honestly do not think they know and Ford really doesn't seem to communicate anything about this to the dealers.

SInce you just ordered, it must be a 2.0 EB truck, and thus highly likely it will get built for MY2022.

My son ordered a 2021 PHEV Ford Escape last June. It did not get built and was rolled over to 2022. Had to change the order to include a different blue, as the blue color he ordered was dropped for 2022. Just recently got notification that his will build on Feb. 7, supposedly at the 2021 price. So, we'll see.

 

[cjwagner]

So, does this mean they WILL be building currently unscheduled hybrids in May ?

 

[Pop2020]

So if I have ordered a Lariat Lux, which requires the CoPilot360 and comes with spray-in bedliner, then doesn't that mean the only constraint in this list that concerns me is the one regarding Lariats/Lux (12%) and not the ones for the SIB and C360? The SIB and C-360 constraints apply those orders that had them added as options, correct....or is it a case of my Lux Lariat being impact by all three constraints? Am I looking at 1 strike or 3 on my order?

 

[Eagle11]

SO, received an email last night (Sat 1-29) at about 730pm AZ Time, saying my truck is being pushed back 2 weeks, production was to start 2-7, now 2-21, which means the earliest I'll get my truck is Mid March, but not holding my breath until Late March.

 

[Delzona]

SO, received an email last night (Sat 1-29) at about 730pm AZ Time, saying my truck is being pushed back 2 weeks, production was to start 2-7, now 2-21, which means the earliest I'll get my truck is Mid March, but not holding my breath until Late March.

Still, look at the brightside, your Maverick is still on it's way just taking the scenic route!

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