Latest Maverick Production Key Commodity Constraints (8/28/23)

[TrailMaster]

If you have a scheduled build date you should be fine. They still have enough capacity to build 1/3 of them.
Constraints mainly affect scheduling.

Sure hope so. Otherwise it's like Ford dangling a carrot (I hate carrots, make it a cheeseburger) before our mouths, just out of reach enough to keep us drooling.
Ford, I want the truck. If you don't have the plastic widgets now, please send the truck on to the dealer anyway. U can send the widgets when they're back in stock, someday. I promise I won't hold it against you!

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[TxMike64]

Its interesting that front and rear splash guard capacity is different. Were they expecting that people would only install the back ones or something equally idiotic?

I may be wrong, but I believe there are some states that require rear mud flaps on all trucks - so that may be why front and rear are inventoried separately.

 

[Fibrepunk]

I emailed and texted my rep yesterday to delete the splash guard from my XL hybrid order.
He said they couldnt. System wasnt letting them.
I emailed the sales manager this morning.

Ford system freezes the orders on preview/scheduling days. So, if you want to make change to your order, you best bet is to have it done after scheduling day(Thursday).

 

[itzyoboipaul]

Ford system freezes the orders on preview/scheduling days. So, if you want to make change to your order, you best bet is to have it done after scheduling day(Thursday).

Ah OK. I'll tell them remove it after Thursday

 

[Gray Goose]

With demand so low for Tremors, will Ford adjust production to the Trims that are being ordered, or just start dumping extra Tremors at dealers?

 

[Huchipapa]

After 11 months of waiting (I know, I know...minor league compared to some of you...) and getting rolled over to a '24, should I just delete the tri-fold at this point? The constraint has always been a low number; I just thought it wouldn't be hard for them to overcome.....

Apparently there are quite a few aftermarket tri-folds of high quality & lockable....

 

[Mainer500]

Yep, I pulled the Tonneau Cover and Mud Flaps off the 24 Lariat I ordered for my Daughter before I put the formal order in. Did the same for my wife's 22 XLT AWD with the Luxury Package too, and when I made that change for her 22, it finally got scheduled. You can get them from the dealership later or go to one of the many aftermarket stores online. Thanks for the update.

 

[MM Mav]

should I just delete the tri-fold

Yes, delete it. Buy it aftermarket or with your Ford Pass Points.

 

[pdarnellmuilman]

I know there is less profit margin, blah, blah, and companies have to make money.

But when the base/starting price for something is the first price customers see 99% of the time. However, the company only intends to fulfill that base cost for 23% of customers, by strict production coordination not just estimated customer orders, it seems like there are some false advertising issues!

Yeah I'm frustrated cause I'm an XL, and yeah even if I get scheduled next week it doesn't make the above fact less wrong.

I like Ford and what they are "trying" to do with the Maverick. I don't want to hurt that endeavor, but as a consumer who just wants straight forward product for price I feel like that could be grounds for a class action.

I feel you. Im also an XL order. It's especially bad when you see the Tremor Capacity vs order amounts. Realistically I feel most people interested in spending that much on an " off road" truck are going to just going to graduate to a Ranger or something higher. Fx4 4 door ranger is maybe 10% more than a maverick tremor ( apples to oranges, '23 vs '24 I know, but still. ).

 

[40caliber]

I know there is less profit margin, blah, blah, and companies have to make money.

But when the base/starting price for something is the first price customers see 99% of the time. However, the company only intends to fulfill that base cost for 23% of customers, by strict production coordination not just estimated customer orders, it seems like there are some false advertising issues!

Yeah I'm frustrated cause I'm an XL, and yeah even if I get scheduled next week it doesn't make the above fact less wrong.

I like Ford and what they are "trying" to do with the Maverick. I don't want to hurt that endeavor, but as a consumer who just wants straight forward product for price I feel like that could be grounds for a class action.

LOL

 

[prsncat]

I think people are missing the point... Ford still has a bunch of available capacity.

Let's say, for our example that Ford plans on producing 100K Mavericks (conservatively; assumes no impact from the strike).
55% Hybrid capacity = 55K; 69% of 47K = 32.5K => 22.5K additional capacity.
45% EB capacity = 45K; 31% of 47K = 14.6K => 30.5K additional capacity.

It gets interesting in the model breakdowns -- the XL Hybrid in particular. XL at 23% =>
23% * 55% capacity = 12650 XL Hybrids;
36% * 69% USOB = 11,700 XL Hybrids (in theory)
=> Within 1K of estimated capacity... YET, as we figured above, there is 22.5K Hybrid capacity available, which is only an estimate of how many are XL Hybrids.

It says Ford is closing the order banks later in September to ensure all Retail orders are fulfilled. It also allows dealers to place stock orders -- including Hybrids -- during the 2024 Model Year. We should see the end of ADMs during the 2024 Model Year.

Note:
The XL, XLT Luxury, and Lariat Luxury percentages don't add up to 100%. I assume that the rest are XLT non-luxury production. The missing percentages are 23% capacity and 18% USOB.

 

[Bill Quattlebaum]

I got my 45 day email yesterday on Sunday morning. Can you believe they are still having supply chain issues for a basic XL? And the beat goes on?

 

[RedRider]

I think people are missing the point... Ford still has a bunch of available capacity.

Let's say, for our example that Ford plans on producing 100K Mavericks (conservatively; assumes no impact from the strike).
55% Hybrid capacity = 55K; 69% of 47K = 32.5K => 22.5K additional capacity.
45% EB capacity = 45K; 31% of 47K = 14.6K => 30.5K additional capacity.

It gets interesting in the model breakdowns -- the XL Hybrid in particular. XL at 23% =>
23% * 55% capacity = 12650 XL Hybrids;
36% * 69% USOB = 11,700 XL Hybrids (in theory)
=> Within 1K of estimated capacity... YET, as we figured above, there is 22.5K Hybrid capacity available, which is only an estimate of how many are XL Hybrids.

It says Ford is closing the order banks later in September to ensure all Retail orders are fulfilled. It also allows dealers to place stock orders -- including Hybrids -- during the 2024 Model Year. We should see the end of ADMs during the 2024 Model Year.

Note:
The XL, XLT Luxury, and Lariat Luxury percentages don't add up to 100%. I assume that the rest are XLT non-luxury production. The missing percentages are 23% capacity and 18% USOB.

I think that your numbers omitted the most important factor - you forgot to factor in the Bronco Sport numbers, from the same assembly line. For the past two years, the Maverick has only filled about 40% of the line and not the 100% that you are assuming, with the rest being BS models presumably because they are easier to make or higher-priced or something. So in reality, they can probably still make the excessive number of BS models, probably all of the rollover EB models and even a few of the new 2024 EB orders, but is going to be pretty hard pressed to even make the number of rollover hybrids that they want to. IMHO the ony fixes to this problem are to either open up another plant (Louisville or Oakville?) or to almost stop making the BS for a year.

 

[prsncat]

I think that your numbers omitted the most important factor - you forgot to factor in the Bronco Sport numbers, from the same assembly line. For the past two years, the Maverick has only filled about 40% of the line and not the 100% that you are assuming, with the rest being BS models presumably because they are easier to make or higher-priced or something. So in reality, they can probably still make the excessive number of BS models, probably all of the rollover EB models and even a few of the new 2024 EB orders, but is going to be pretty hard pressed to even make the number of rollover hybrids that they want to. IMHO the ony fixes to this problem are to either open up another plant (Louisville or Oakville?) or to almost stop making the BS for a year.

First of all, thank you for reading my post and taking the time to challenge it. Your argument is well thought out and articulate.

I am basing the 100,000 annual production on Maverick sales and production numbers. Take a look at the last several months, and you will see Ford has been producing between 8,000 to 10,000 Mavericks per month for several months. Thus, I based my 100K estimate on a conservative 8,300 per month.

If you look at the production numbers to date, the estimate for rollover orders will be between 10K and 12K units. With only 47K Retail orders in the USOB, there is still plenty of capacity to produce the rollover and new orders.

Ford will want to produce as many Bronco Sports as possible since they are more profitable than the Maverick. Yet, it looks like the Bronco Sport's inventory is climbing. Consequently, Ford might not get the Stock orders needed to keep the production queue full.

If Ford can get the Maverick parts from suppliers necessary to assemble more, I would imagine they would want to keep all three shifts busy by allocating more production to the Maverick than the Bronco Sport.

I am curious, however, if you still think that my original point was incorrect. My hypothesis is that Ford left the order banks open (until September 20 and 21) since they have plenty of capacity to produce all of the rollover and Retail orders. I also contend dealers will be given Stock allocations -- mostly Ecoboost -- too.

 

[BlueXLT]

First of all, thank you for reading my post and taking the time to challenge it. Your argument is well thought out and articulate.

I am basing the 100,000 annual production on Maverick sales and production numbers. Take a look at the last several months, and you will see Ford has been producing between 8,000 to 10,000 Mavericks per month for several months. Thus, I based my 100K estimate on a conservative 8,300 per month.

If you look at the production numbers to date, the estimate for rollover orders will be between 10K and 12K units. With only 47K Retail orders in the USOB, there is still plenty of capacity to produce the rollover and new orders.

Ford will want to produce as many Bronco Sports as possible since they are more profitable than the Maverick. Yet, it looks like the Bronco Sport's inventory is climbing. Consequently, Ford might not get the Stock orders needed to keep the production queue full.

If Ford can get the Maverick parts from suppliers necessary to assemble more, I would imagine they would want to keep all three shifts busy by allocating more production to the Maverick than the Bronco Sport.

I am curious, however, if you still think that my original point was incorrect. My hypothesis is that Ford left the order banks open (until September 20 and 21) since they have plenty of capacity to produce all of the rollover and Retail orders. I also contend dealers will be given Stock allocations -- mostly Ecoboost -- too.

All of this seems correct from what I have seen. There is only a finite demand for this truck, it's been very scarce to this point, but with the number of orders already filled, significant interest rate increases, 2025 refresh looming, and the general cooling of the car market overall I think they're going to catch up this year. I think this is all very intentional on Ford's part. I think they did the math and figured out the exact price increase values that would get supply and demand into equilibrium by the end of the year. With significant changes coming for 2025 (rumored), they likely don't want to be carrying many/any orders over if it can be avoided.

One thing I do wonder is once they start getting closer to building all the orders, will they stop working 3 shifts? Do 2nd and 3rd shift workers get paid more than 1st shift workers? I think it's common to pay a premium for odd-hour shifts, but no idea in Mexico.

I also wonder if the higher than expected XL and Hybrid production is temporary just to clear out the carryover orders and once they get to new orders they'd shift back to prioritizing whatever is most profitable.

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