Latest Maverick Production Key Commodity Constraints (8/28/23)

[prsncat]

All of this seems correct from what I have seen. There is only a finite demand for this truck, it's been very scarce to this point, but with the number of orders already filled, significant interest rate increases, 2025 refresh looming, and the general cooling of the car market overall I think they're going to catch up this year. I think this is all very intentional on Ford's part. I think they did the math and figured out the exact price increase values that would get supply and demand into equilibrium by the end of the year. With significant changes coming for 2025 (rumored), they likely don't want to be carrying many/any orders over if it can be avoided.

One thing I do wonder is once they start getting closer to building all the orders, will they stop working 3 shifts? Do 2nd and 3rd shift workers get paid more than 1st shift workers? I think it's common to pay a premium for odd-hour shifts, but no idea in Mexico.

I also wonder if the higher than expected XL and Hybrid production is temporary just to clear out the carryover orders and once they get to new orders they'd shift back to prioritizing whatever is most profitable.

Wouldn't it be fun to be employed at @Ford Motor Company in a role that is responsible for ERP, allocations, and factory scheduling? They have posted several product manager positions that appear to be part of this team that I have applied to without luck (so far). I think it would be fun to get back into a role solving the challenge of optimizing just-in-time supply and resource planning to maximize profitability (where net promoter scores and customer satisfaction are also considered).

We can all hypothesize and guess what these teams are doing. It would be more fun working at Ford to find ways to improve the process.

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[MatthewPK]

I just want to make sure I'm reading this correctly.
This means that splash guards are a constraint, right?

 

[Kingpin003]

I just want to make sure I'm reading this correctly.
This means that splash guards are a constraint, right?

Yes. Ford says they have enough inventory to cover 4% of Maverick orders. No one knows exactly how many they are capable of producing, but last year they made just over 100,000. 4% would mean approximately 4,000 orders can have splash guards all year.

The order bank has 47,000 orders with 11% asking for splash guards. That tells us about 5,100 orders already want them. So 1,000 trucks more than Ford expects to make.

Also, orders that do get them are more likely to have to wait. Ford is only able to put splash guards on about 308 trucks each month. A lucky few will get made each month, buy many more will not.

 

[MatthewPK]

Yes. Ford says they have enough inventory to cover 4% of Maverick orders. No one knows exactly how many they are capable of producing, but last year they made just over 100,000. 4% would mean approximately 4,000 orders can have splash guards all year.

The order bank has 47,000 orders with 11% asking for splash guards. That tells us about 5,100 orders already want them. So 1,000 trucks more than Ford expects to make.

Also, orders that do get them are more likely to have to wait. Ford is only able to put splash guards on about 308 trucks each month. A lucky few will get made each month, buy many more will not.

Thanks for the explanation. I'll contact my dealer and remove the splash guards.

The other concern is the hitch. Not really a great alternative there.

 

[Kingpin003]

Thanks for the explanation. I'll contact my dealer and remove the splash guards.

The other concern is the hitch. Not really a great alternative there.

True, but you should be ok to leave the hitch. Not every constraint is as drastic as the splash guards.

Hitches have a capacity of 65,000+ while the order bank only calls for 31,000 at the moment.

Each order that wants them should get produced without issue, but it might take a little longer than normal.

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