Current Maverick Constraint List as of 12/19/22

[KevCuRaoi]

Does your version have the 4K or Fx4? Those seem to be missing every time these lists go out. Granted, EBs don't appear to be an issue, but it would be interesting to see those numbers.

No those aren't on my list, so I do assume that those are ok!

My list is almost identical...... but for some reason has 2 XLT Lux pkgs listed?? Something cut off on the PDF for I can't really tell what it says after that. Maybe some are adjusted for certain regions?

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[commadorebob]

No those aren't on my list, so I do assume that those are ok!

My list is almost identical...... but for some reason has 2 XLT Lux pkgs listed?? Something cut off on the PDF for I can't really tell what it says after that. Maybe some are adjusted for certain regions?

Interesting. I figured those were nationwide numbers.

 

[KevCuRaoi]

Interesting. I figured those were nationwide numbers.

I did as well!!

My report came directly from WBDO. Maybe the other was emailed to someone at a dealership from a Ford rep....and they modified a few things on the report? I can't think of how else the report could be different!! I double checked the report I downloaded....both are from 12/19.

 

[jesemd]

No those aren't on my list, so I do assume that those are ok!

My list is almost identical...... but for some reason has 2 XLT Lux pkgs listed?? Something cut off on the PDF for I can't really tell what it says after that. Maybe some are adjusted for certain regions?

In the tradition of 90s Rap artists, Ford has decided that East Coast Lux packages will be slightly different than West Coast Lux packages. The East Coast package includes moderately warmer heated steering wheels and the West Coast packages substitute 7-Way power driver and 7 way manual passenger seats for equality sake.

 

[commadorebob]

I waited a bit to bury this as this math is more analytical and thus some will not fully understand it or care. Feel free to skip if this kind of math is not your cup of tea .

November 1 outstanding order ratio: 65% hybrid and 35% EB
December 19 outstanding order ratio: 72% hybrid and 28% EB

I have been able to pretty much match these with the assumption of a 7,000/month production run and a 35-65 hybrid-to-EB production ratio. But not exactly. In fact, my numbers are a little off favoring the EB. I have it closer to being 75% hybrid and 25% EB. I have not been able to figure out any possible combination of variables except that Ford has actually scheduled more hybrids than they otherwise indicated they would, likely the Cancelled VINs.

That said, it is not a surprise the outstanding order ratio has shifted. If Ford sticks with the 35-65 production ratio at 7,000 per month, in two months we should hear an the order ratio be roughly 81% hybrid and 19% EB. Two months after that, the order ratio will be roughly 96% hybrid and 4% EB. In fact, even if Ford increases production and all of that increase goes to build Hybrid, the ratio will still climb until 100% of the outstanding orders are hybrid.

If Ford can raise their production to 8,000 per month at the 35-65 ratio, half of the original new MY23 hybrids will be built before November 2023. My suggestion for Ford will be to not accept any hybrid orders for MY24 as even at 8,000 per month, MY24 would be accounted for by leftover MY23 orders.

 

[sanpablo]

Let's hope that Ford and the rest of the industry learn from situations like we're experiencing here, and finally let market demand dictate product offering and production planning. Maybe Ford will finally attempt to really increase production of the hybrid. For too long, the big auto manufacturers have been creating the market for their products through marketing. It will be interesting to see what this new Ranchero product will do to Maverick demand if it comes to market in MY24.

no, no, no no!

 

[Flight Test]

I waited a bit to bury this as this math is more analytical and thus some will not fully understand it or care. Feel free to skip if this kind of math is not your cup of tea .

November 1 outstanding order ratio: 65% hybrid and 35% EB
December 19 outstanding order ratio: 72% hybrid and 28% EB

I have been able to pretty much match these with the assumption of a 7,000/month production run and a 35-65 hybrid-to-EB production ratio. But not exactly. In fact, my numbers are a little off favoring the EB. I have it closer to being 75% hybrid and 25% EB. I have not been able to figure out any possible combination of variables except that Ford has actually scheduled more hybrids than they otherwise indicated they would, likely the Cancelled VINs.

That said, it is not a surprise the outstanding order ratio has shifted. If Ford sticks with the 35-65 production ratio at 7,000 per month, in two months we should hear an the order ratio be roughly 81% hybrid and 19% EB. Two months after that, the order ratio will be roughly 96% hybrid and 4% EB. In fact, even if Ford increases production and all of that increase goes to build Hybrid, the ratio will still climb until 100% of the outstanding orders are hybrid.

If Ford can raise their production to 8,000 per month at the 35-65 ratio, half of the original new MY23 hybrids will be built before November 2023. My suggestion for Ford will be to not accept any hybrid orders for MY24 as even at 8,000 per month, MY24 would be accounted for by leftover MY23 orders.

Keep the data coming Commadore! Bottom line for us EB orders is that all if not most orders will be built by end of summer, barring any goofy shit FoMoCo dreams up. (insert saluting emoji here)

 

[commadorebob]

Keep the data coming Commadore! Bottom line for us EB orders is that all if not most orders will be built by end of summer, barring any goofy shit FoMoCo dreams up. (insert saluting emoji here)

Yep. Allocations fall into that category, unfortunately. That said, I can see a case where Ford allows a dealership to go over their allocations to get the last handful of EB orders out the door so they can clear their books..

 

[jesemd]

Let's hope that Ford and the rest of the industry learn from situations like we're experiencing here, and finally let market demand dictate product offering and production planning. Maybe Ford will finally attempt to really increase production of the hybrid. For too long, the big auto manufacturers have been creating the market for their products through marketing. It will be interesting to see what this new Ranchero product will do to Maverick demand if it comes to market in MY24.

The solution is simple. Take orders in September. In October you schedule part deliveries and production slots for December. Deliver Trucks in January. Allow dealers to order only the number of trucks they will receive 4 months later. Repeat 12 times, then change model years. If for some unforeseen reason you don't get a truck built, make it the top of the list for the following month.

If the Ranchero ends up being a 120% scale Maverick and is 120% of the price, it will also sell out in a week. The Ranger seems very unpopular, so maybe it would be a direct replacement?

 

[commadorebob]

The Ranger seems very unpopular, so maybe it would be a direct replacement?

Next Ranger looks like a grown up Maverick. It might do better. Only reason I never seriously considered the current one is how it looks.

 

[ford5]

I appreciate the numbers crunchers in the crowd and I know I'm battling the odds in waiting for my Lariat hybrid. My question involves allocations and mega-dealer orders. If the large dealers have several hundreds of hybrid orders over their allocation then those should never be built this year. I'm guessing this number nationwide is huge. If that is this case, that should significantly help the odds of those of us waiting for a 23 hybrid. Hopefully, this reasoning makes sense to some of you. But... I'm afraid common sense has nothing to do with which orders Ford builds!

 

[brucerob62]

i dont have any constraints on the list but still nothing for my23..oh well

 

[MaverickMom]

So my hybrid XL order canceled vin moved to 2023 order priority 2 still has no build date. However my son's hybrid xlt lux with moonroof, hitch, drop in bed-liner etc... order rollover to 2023 in September... all the bells and whistles has a build date of Jan 3rd. We both ordered October/November of 2021.
I had to drop the moonroof off my XL for 23, so I added 360, 400watt inverter, drop in bed-liner.

 

[Impetus19]

So my hybrid XL order canceled vin moved to 2023 order priority 2 still has no build date. However my son's hybrid xlt lux with moonroof, hitch, drop in bed-liner etc... order rollover to 2023 in September... all the bells and whistles has a build date of Jan 3rd. We both ordered October/November of 2021.
I had to drop the moonroof off my XL for 23, so I added 360, 400watt inverter, drop in bed-liner.

Same dealer?

 

[commadorebob]

I appreciate the numbers crunchers in the crowd and I know I'm battling the odds in waiting for my Lariat hybrid. My question involves allocations and mega-dealer orders. If the large dealers have several hundreds of hybrid orders over their allocation then those should never be built this year. I'm guessing this number nationwide is huge. If that is this case, that should significantly help the odds of those of us waiting for a 23 hybrid. Hopefully, this reasoning makes sense to some of you. But... I'm afraid common sense has nothing to do with which orders Ford builds!

Something to keep in mind about the allocations. If I am understanding the process correctly, once Ford is done with EB retail orders, they will start doing EB stock orders. Even if a dealer has outstanding retail hybrid orders, if Ford can't build them, Ford will roll down to any EB stock orders. Ford is not going to just shutter EB production nor will they just not send trucks to dealers that only have hybrid retail orders left.

But guess what, that stock order still ate an allocation.

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