Latest Maverick Production Key Commodity Constraints + Total Retail Unscheduled Orders (10/16/23)

Newface · Oct 17, 2023

There are currently 35,004 total retail unscheduled orders as of 10/16/23.

Retail USOB: Is the current mix of retail orders in the unscheduled order bank (USOB) at the time the report was run. The report only looks at orders that are “clean”, meaning they do not have a compatibility error, material hold or on 99 priority code.

Ford Maverick Latest Maverick Production Key Commodity Constraints + Total Retail Unscheduled Orders (10/16/23) page 11

huunvubu · Oct 17, 2023

Newface said:
There are currently 35,004 total retail unscheduled orders as of 10/16/23.

Retail USOB: Is the current mix of retail orders in the unscheduled order bank (USOB) at the time the report was run. The report only looks at orders that are “clean”, meaning they do not have a compatibility error, material hold or on 99 priority code.

NICE: Over 8,025 reduction in outstanding orders since just 7 days ago.

There are currently 43,029 total retail unscheduled orders as of 10/9/23

Latest Maverick Production Key Commodity Constraints + Total Retail Unscheduled Orders (10/9/23)

At this and last months scheduling rate it looks like by April/May 2024 Ford will be caught up on all outstanding orders.

commadorebob · Oct 17, 2023

How to read:

Order Banks on 10/10
Estimated scheduling based on the max VIN reported and Ford's prior scheduling planning.
The difference between the order banks and the calculated reduction based on VIN.
Order Banks on 10/17
Difference between order banks on 10/10 and 10/17. Use to see if Ford's actual matched their planned from column 3.

Slightly fewer vehicles based on the max VIN, but it could be a new orders were added to the banks last week especially since even with scheduling, the number of XLs went up.

Ford Maverick Latest Maverick Production Key Commodity Constraints + Total Retail Unscheduled Orders (10/16/23) 1697551494027

Observations:

Ford Scheduled fewer hybrids than expected.
Ford's limitation on XL is obvious.
EB orders will be cleaned out by the end of February if current trends continue.
I would not be surprised if Ford closes out hybrid order banks very soon.
Tremor wait should be minimal by this point as Ford scheduled 90% of their outstanding orders last week. Allocations are king at this point.

Thundercougarfalconbird · Oct 17, 2023

huunvubu said:
At this and last months scheduling rate it looks like by April/May 2024 Ford will be caught up on all outstanding orders.

Numbers wise, yes, but allocations could have those at-capacity dealers receiving some of their current orders over a year from now.

Jman79 · Oct 17, 2023

At what point does Ford say "ohh crap, we should order some more XL trim pieces from factory X"?

Are there items for XL trim that are hard to get vs XLT or was it just their yearly estimation?

I know there are thoughts that they are doing this to push people toward higher margin vehicles, but that makes no sense from a making $$$ standpoint. Why let so many customers go unfulfilled and lead to poor brand sentiment. The XLT can't be that much higher margin without addition options. Bump the base XL price $500. Those who are going to option up will do so regardless.

Seems weird, and a business oversight, to not adjust production to meet those orders.

commadorebob · Oct 17, 2023

Jman79 said:
At what point does Ford say "ohh crap, we should order some more XL trim pieces from factory X"? Are there items for XL trim that are hard to get vs XLT or was it just their yearly estimation?

I know there are thoughts that they are doing this to push people toward higher margin vehicles, but that makes no sense from a making $$$ standpoint. Why let so many customers go unfulfilled and lead to poor brand sentiment. The XLT can't be that much higher margin without addition options. Bump the base XL price $500. Those who are going to option up will do so regardless.

Seems weird, and a business oversight, to not adjust production to meet those orders.

No reason to panic yet. Assuming Ford only builds 120,000 MY24 Mavericks, with XL making up 23% of that that still means Ford plans to build over 27,000 XL Mavericks this year. Ford was clear the XL would be short this month, but that may flip next month. That said, I think we can clearly see why Ford cut off any further XL orders.

This is the current build rate if you simply take the difference between the original USOB numbers and compare them to the current one. This doesn't capture any new orders since the original numbers but as you can see, Ford is pretty much right on their targets with hybrids being a little over sampled in scheduling. An given that Ford appears to have taken on new XL orders this month the math would indicate the XLs were scheduled at a higher rate than expected until this month.

Ford Maverick Latest Maverick Production Key Commodity Constraints + Total Retail Unscheduled Orders (10/16/23) 1697556552927

Thundercougarfalconbird · Oct 17, 2023

commadorebob said:
I would not be surprised if Ford closes out hybrid order banks very soon.

Why would that be? 55% capacity for the year suggests 82,500 hybrids (assuming 150k total capacity). We started with around 32,500 orders in August - have there been that many new hybrid orders?

Compare that with the 23% XL around 34,500 capacity for the year. The year started at about 17,000, add in the new orders over the past few constraint reports and we're fairly close to that capacity. It makes sense why those were closed out completely last Friday, regardless of engine.

Perhaps I'm just missing something - I haven't been keeping a spreadsheet

commadorebob · Oct 17, 2023

Thundercougarfalconbird said:
Why would that be? 55% capacity for the year suggests 82,500 hybrids (assuming 150k total capacity). We started with around 32,500 orders in August - have there been that many new hybrid orders?

Compare that with the 23% XL around 34,500 capacity for the year. The year started at about 17,000, add in the new orders over the past few constraint reports and we're fairly close to that capacity. It makes sense why those were closed out completely last Friday, regardless of engine.

Perhaps I'm just missing something - I haven't been keeping a spreadsheet

One thing to keep in mind is Ford has also gained roughly 6,000 new orders since August. Max VIN indicates 24,000 total scheduled but USOB shows a difference of only 18,000 since August. Some months have shown obvious increases in the total number of orders in the bank such as XL for this month.

Through three months of scheduling, Ford has scheduled roughly 1/3 of hybrid orders which would indicated Ford has two more quarters of hybrids left to schedule. And this with Ford oversampling the hybrids when scheduling retail orders.

So, I can see Ford wanting to leave a quarter of capacity available to either A) flip the model year early or B) ensure with 100% certainty there are no more outstanding retail orders when the model year does flip given everyone expects MY25 to be a minor refresh.

dusty1787 · Oct 17, 2023

@commadorebob , for the newer members on this site that might be viewing this....if you happen to have a link or anything relating to it, could you explain what your almost slogan of "allocations are king"...means. It seems like we may be starting to get to that point where dealership allocations are going to be the issue/delay.

commadorebob · Oct 17, 2023

dusty1787 said:
@commadorebob , for the newer members on this site that might be viewing this....if you happen to have a link or anything relating to it, could you explain what your almost slogan of "allocations are king"...means. It seems like we may be starting to get to that point where dealership allocations are going to be the issue/delay.

Done.

ilikebike · Oct 17, 2023

Wonder if they're constrained on XL orders because they have committed fleet orders still outstanding. Those tend to be overwhelmingly base model XLs.

Derwood · Oct 17, 2023

Newface said:
There are currently 35,004 total retail unscheduled orders as of 10/16/23.

Retail USOB: Is the current mix of retail orders in the unscheduled order bank (USOB) at the time the report was run. The report only looks at orders that are “clean”, meaning they do not have a compatibility error, material hold or on 99 priority code.

Boy, those red values keep increasing all the time. Glad I managed to find a Maverick locally...I'd prob be here this time NEXT year still waiting for my original pre ordered one. Lol

LSchicago · Oct 17, 2023

Holy crap, 47% of orders are XL?

TheShark · Oct 17, 2023

LSchicago said:
Holy crap, 47% of orders are XL?

It's interesting looking at those numbers to see what people are ordering. The Mav really lives up to it's inexpensive reputation with the number of XL orders.

LSchicago · Oct 17, 2023

TheShark said:
It's interesting looking at those numbers to see what people are ordering. The Mav really lives up to it's inexpensive reputation with the number of XL orders.

I ordered and waited for an XL Hybrid. So glad I did! I only NEEDED to change the wheels. The rest I'm very happy with.

Latest Maverick Production Key Commodity Constraints + Total Retail Unscheduled Orders (10/16/23)

Newface

Well-known member

huunvubu

Well-known member

commadorebob

Well-known member

Thundercougarfalconbird

Well-known member

Jman79

Well-known member

commadorebob

Well-known member

Thundercougarfalconbird

Well-known member

commadorebob

Well-known member

dusty1787

Well-known member

commadorebob

Well-known member

ilikebike

Well-known member

Derwood

Well-known member

LSchicago

Well-known member

TheShark

Well-known member

LSchicago

Well-known member

Similar threads