🗓️ Maverick scheduling on 2/2/23 for production weeks through 3/27 (+ Current Constraints List)

[Becker300]

Nope. My estimates are based on the following public information:

• Ford stating 77,800 outstanding total orders as of November 1 with 65% of them being Hybrid.
• Estimated +6900 Cancelled VIN hybrids added to the list in January
• Estimated +3,400 fleet EBs
• 7,536 production total Mavericks built in December (based on public data) at Ford's announced 35-65 ratio
  • 35% hybrid and 65% EB
• 2022 production numbers carried over to 2023 on the assumption Ford can at least match that
  • Given they are adding a new shift in July, a safer assumption than before
• The largest announced VIN on this website and the week it is scheduled
• The outstanding hybrid to EB order ratio
  • Which is where I got the ~3,400 fleet EBs

I keep a spreadsheet up to date on my laptop as new information comes out. So, my numbers are purely estimates. I suspect they will get a little more accurate in the next week as the January production numbers are made public.

Things it cannot account for are things like allocations, unannounced constraints, and non-retail production. So, unless Ford comes out next week and says, "we are done scheduling for March and we have XX,XXX number of retail orders remaining with XX% of them being hybrid," we can only go off of what we have available to us.

Thank you for great information.

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[jesemd]

I had Tim's livestream on while I was just mindlessly playing Xbox last night. He spoke a good deal about how the process works. Part of it is how well a particular vehicle class sells in an area is factored as well as how well a dealer does. So, for instance, a dealership in Texas will get more pick-ups while a dealer in California will get more EVs simply because that is how those local markets generally operate. It sucks if you live in Texas and want an EV or California and want a truck. But dealerships can work their way to getting favorable allocation numbers as Tim's dealership has done with EVs despite their more rural (aka non-green) market.

Also, he did say Ford admitted to dealerships they screwed up the Maverick allocation estimates. Dealerships were supposed to know their annual allotments before order banks opened so that dealerships would only take that many. Good dealerships knew about how many they could expect assuming flat growth and only took that many.

It will likely impact hybrid orders more as that is where the vast overage is. Ford is doing their best to make it right, but at the end of the day the Laws of Physics wins. Ford can only make so many trucks at a time.

It seems that all dealers who are willing to disclose anything claim they were given less allocations than their 2023 orders. It also seems that Ford received total Mav orders approximately equal to the number built last year. So, either there are quiet dealers out there with more allocations than orders or Ford is sandbagging allocations.

Is the difference to account for fleet orders? If so, some of us wont be getting our trucks.

If not, what will Ford do when the dealer runs out of allocations?
Keep the line running and build random dealer stock? If so, some of us wont be getting our trucks.
Increase allocations and fulfill as many orders as possible? Fingers Crossed.
Build Bronco Sports? If so, some of us wont be getting our trucks.

 

[commadorebob]

I chose the dealer that was a 5 mile drive over the one that was a 12 mile drive because I went at lunch time during the brief window of the order banks being open. I couldn't get there over the weekend because I was camping with the Scouts, and then I heard rumors of the order banks being closed much earlier than expected, so I ran out on Monday at noon to the closest dealer...Hopefully, since I ordered an EB, it will get built eventually, but I might have been scheduled already if I had gone to the other dealership.

I used the same logic to pick my dealership. I'm sure the larger one could get it to me sooner, but the one I chose is 1.5 miles from the house and has been great so far.

Allocations still remains king, but I have to think once Ford runs out of EB orders to build they might start shuffling some of the allocations around just to get those last remaining retail EBs built to clear the books. But that is just speculation.

I hope you are enjoying your "one hour per week." I just finished the coursework of Wood Badge myself.

It seems that all dealers who are willing to disclose anything claim they were given less allocations than their 2023 orders. It also seems that Ford received total Mav orders approximately equal to the number built last year. So, either there are quiet dealers out there with more allocations than orders or Ford is sandbagging allocations.

Is the difference to account for fleet orders? If so, some of us wont be getting our trucks.

If not, what will Ford do when the dealer runs out of allocations?
Keep the line running and build random dealer stock? If so, some of us wont be getting our trucks.
Increase allocations and fulfill as many orders as possible? Fingers Crossed.
Build Bronco Sports? If so, some of us wont be getting our trucks.

The problem is the 65% of orders being hybrid when only 35% of production capacity being hybrid. If the order and production capacity matched, it would just be a matter of time before they are all built and Ford would likely be closer to a FIFO retail approach. But since there is no way to build all of the hybrids, Ford has no choice but to fall back on allocations.

See above on theory with EBs.

 

[jesemd]

The problem is the 65% of orders being hybrid when only 35% of production capacity being hybrid. If the order and production capacity matched, it would just be a matter of time before they are all built and Ford would likely be closer to a FIFO retail approach. But since there is no way to build all of the hybrids, Ford has no choice but to fall back on allocations.

See above on theory with EBs.

Without separate allocations for Hybrid and EB, I don't see how it matters.

 

[commadorebob]

Without separate allocations for Hybrid and EB, I don't see how it matters.

Only that for most dealerships they will run out of EB orders before they run out of allocations. So, for the dealerships that run out of allocations before any they run out of EBs, will Ford shift allocations around to allow those EBs to be built to clear the books because Ford has to have 65% of production be EB anyway?

I'm thinking we will find out this summer as, on paper, Ford should be most done scheduling EBs by late spring.

 

[Onceforall]

Build Bronco Sports? If so, some of us wont be getting our trucks.

Unlikely, inventory on BS is building significantly. My Dec 22 order is already scheduled for this month. Dealer discounting on MSRP already starting. Granger has 23 BS in their inventory, the most of any other Ford model. All under MSRP.

Perhaps there will be more Mavs running on the BS line? Hope so.

 

[Maverstang]

That model should work for STOCK orders, but not for retail. All it does is penalize the buyer because he chose to go to his local small-town mom and pop Ford dealer who isn't expected to get many.

Why should a dealer with no allocation be able to sell a sold order ahead of yours? Because that order was placed before yours! It's not rocket science. That is what people on this forum hate the most about the system. I've been waiting since October 2021 for my Maverick. There are plenty who ordered in September 22 with a similar build who are scheduled and/or built already. Why? Because of the stupid allocation system. Even at my own dealership it screwed me.

There is a member on here who ordered at the same dealer as me one day before me. The only difference between the builds is his was an XLT Lux and mine was a Lariat Lux. Sure there are a couple extra chips on a Lariat Lux, but not an extreme difference. His was scheduled Feb 2022 and received it in April. Mine wasn't scheduled until August 2022 and then was eventually canceled.

TLDR; Ford's system sucks

Yes, custom orders is where the allocation system breaks down.

Ford advertises directly to you: Buy a Maverick, visit your local Ford dealer to order. But nothing is mentioned about choosing a dealer based on hidden criteria, including a secretive allocations game.

The only solution is to build in accordance with received order dates, then send to the dealer closest to the originators address for delivery.

I believe Ford is trying to set this up for EVs, but Ford Blue customers are stuck with the old allocation system.

 

[odin0425]

I dont know why, but I feel unusually lucky this week.

 

[Last Truck Ever]

I dont know why, but I feel unusually lucky this week.

I used to feel that.
I don't anymore.

 

[TheWizziard]

 

[commadorebob]

I dont know why, but I feel unusually lucky this week.

Don't get hopes up. This is apparently still January allocations clean-up and there shouldn't be that many left. Next week is supposed to be a lot bigger... in theory.

 

[TheSEARCH]

Yes, custom orders is where the allocation system breaks down.

Ford advertises directly to you: Buy a Maverick, visit your local Ford dealer to order. But nothing is mentioned about choosing a dealer based on hidden criteria, including a secretive allocations game.

The only solution is to build in accordance with received order dates, then send to the dealer closest to the originators address for delivery.

I believe Ford is trying to set this up for EVs, but Ford Blue customers are stuck with the old allocation system.

What this encourages is for people to go out and place orders from multiple dealers since there is no way of knowing which dealer has allocations. Its plain STUPID on Fords part.

 

[Lonnie gee]

Allocations are assigned monthly so a dealer won't know what they annual allocation is when they take orders. Granted, they have a full year history so if they only got 10 allocations last year, they shouldn't expect for it to go to 100 this year.

Still think allocations are a joke for retail orders. These are already guaranteed sales so it won't be extra merchandise sitting on lots waiting for buyers. The only reason they wouldn't have a buyer already is because the person got tired of waiting 10 months for the allocation and moved on.

A stagnant order ,with allocations ,perhaps waiting for nothing or till 2024

 

[Yvonne Federowicz]

There is just not enough room in my personal budget for the alcohol needs on any given Thursday anymore. Ford should supply drinking subsidies to unscheduled order holders.

What is the most helpful beverage for this?

 

[billbillw]

My son got his Eagle back in 2020. Less and less involved these days. I only camped with them once last year. I still like to go out for the adult companionship more than anything now. We have a bunch of great leaders in my Troop.

I hope you are enjoying your "one hour per week." I just finished the coursework of Wood Badge myself.

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