Current Maverick Constraint List as of 12/19/22

[gator_dub]

It's so crazy how Ford has worked out these allocations.
I ordered a Hybrid and Ecoboost both XLT Luxury packages on the first day orders were open from one of the largest dealers in my area.
Then you see the first orders go through scheduling and there are XL Hybrid non-rollovers ... what the heck? lol
IMO if this is what Ford was going to do they should have prioritized Rollovers, then Ecoboosts, then new 2023 Hybrids.
Right now it seems like a crapshoot as to if your vehicle gets scheduled regardless of constraints.

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[NJBob]

I am still amazed that the splash guards are still a constraint. Stupid molded plastic part.

 

[Flight Test]

Based on what matters to me in my world, I'm glad I chose the EB and DIBL. At least on paper, I should, I repeat should have my EB Mav delivered in 2023.

 

[commadorebob]

Back of the napkin math, so feel free to take it for what it is worth:

November 1, Ford announces 77,800 outstanding orders with 65% being hybrid and 35% being EB. Since then, they have rolled over roughly 6,900 cancelled VINs and done scheduling for December and January. So, for the sake of this discussion, let's assume they filled up January (we will also ignore allocations for the sake of math).

Assuming Ford has a production of just 7,000 per month (based generously on the 6,614 they made in November) and based on the percentages provided above, Ford is actually going backwards with hybrid due to the cancelled VINs while they already have a quarter of the EB orders scheduled.

Math:
77,800 (known value on November 1)
+ 6,900 (estimated Cancelled VINs)
- 14,000 (estimated scheduled for Dec & January based on November production data)

=70,700 estimate remaining orders to be scheduled starting Feb 1... again assuming Ford is done with January.

At a production of 7,000 per month, Ford can build 4,550 EBs and only 2,450 Hybrids. That means that based on a production of just 7,000 per month, the last EB order will be scheduled for June 2023 while Ford has enough Hybrids to last them until they start the 2025 model year.

Here is hoping they can ramp up.

Edit: corrected the dates

 

[TexasHybrid]

Not ditching the Hybrid, that is a required feature on my Maverick. If not built and market starts to offer true competitors then I may adjust. Otherwise, off to 2024 model. I did add the SIBL and tie down rails as $500 is a great deal on this. I am not in a bind with vehicles and have the luxury of waiting. If built, am anticipating many years of reliable service.

 

[Gardner79]

Interesting observation on the hitch situation. The build plan actually implies 100% of Mavericks could be built with hitches based on the commodity plan:
- 30% XLT Lux, which includes a hitch
- 25% Lariat Lux, which includes a hitch
- 45% Stand-alone hitch

The problem is too many standalone hitch orders. So if you want the standalone hitch, add the Lux package. I know it sounds illogical since clearly there are enough hitch parts for 100% of builds, but we’re talking Ford market planning here.

This is exactly what I did. The hitch just adds too much utility to the truck to go without. So I guess Ford got me, but the other items in the lux package will be nice. But not everyone may be able to pay for the lux package.

 

[Impetus19]

Back of the napkin math, so feel free to take it for what it is worth:

November 1, Ford announces 77,800 outstanding orders with 65% being hybrid and 35% being EB. Since then, they have rolled over roughly 6,900 cancelled VINs and done scheduling for December and January. So, for the sake of this discussion, let's assume they filled up January (we will also ignore allocations for the sake of math).

Assuming Ford has a production of just 7,000 per month (based generously on the 6,614 they made in November) and based on the percentages provided above, Ford is actually going backwards with hybrid due to the cancelled VINs while they already have a quarter of the EB orders scheduled.

Math:
77,800 (known value on November 1)
+ 6,900 (estimated Cancelled VINs)
- 14,000 (estimated scheduled for Dec & January based on November production data)

=70,700 estimate remaining orders to be scheduled starting Feb 1... again assuming Ford is done with January.

At a production of 7,000 per month, Ford can build 4,550 EBs and only 2,450 Hybrids. That means that based on a production of just 7,000 per month, the last EB order will be scheduled for June 2024 while Ford has enough Hybrids to last them until they announce the 2025 model year.

Here is hoping they can ramp up.

View attachment 80371

June-23 is what you meant for Ford to finish building EB orders i believe?
But they do essentially have hybrid orders for 2 years of builds. Which i just don't understand how they could sit back and not do anything on those (other than letting people switch to EB).

 

[dalola]

That trailer tow hitch has me worried. My order has FX4 and 4K. I wonder if they count each "need" separately as opposed to by vehicle. My truck would use up 2 of the hitches in that case and the overall capacity shortage won't be as severe.

And yes, I live in laa-laa land...

Good question....my thought would be the constrained hitches would be factored AFTER any package-included hitches, which would be included in the package constraint. You should be OK, but this is just my guess on how Ford might organize their data. But I agree, it's probably not as "bad" as it appears from an actual parts-available perspective.

 

[jesemd]

That trailer tow hitch has me worried. My order has FX4 and 4K. I wonder if they count each "need" separately as opposed to by vehicle. My truck would use up 2 of the hitches in that case and the overall capacity shortage won't be as severe.

And yes, I live in laa-laa land...

I have XLT Lux, FX4 and 4K. I fully expect my truck to come with one hitch installed and two in the bed as I paid for three hitches. And two upgraded radiators.

So does Ford count my truck as three hitches or one?

Remember, the situation is always worse than you hoped, but better than you expect.

 

[commadorebob]

June-23 is what you meant for Ford to finish building EB orders i believe?
But they do essentially have hybrid orders for 2 years of builds. Which i just don't understand how they could sit back and not do anything on those (other than letting people switch to EB).

You are correct. I added a note as I already closed my spreadsheet. But the point does remain the same: EBs will be done by the summer while Ford cannot hope to build all of the hybrids if current production remains as they are today. So, the hope is Ford finds a way to ramp up.

 

[jesemd]

Back of the napkin math, so feel free to take it for what it is worth:

November 1, Ford announces 77,800 outstanding orders with 65% being hybrid and 35% being EB. Since then, they have rolled over roughly 6,900 cancelled VINs and done scheduling for December and January. So, for the sake of this discussion, let's assume they filled up January (we will also ignore allocations for the sake of math).

Assuming Ford has a production of just 7,000 per month (based generously on the 6,614 they made in November) and based on the percentages provided above, Ford is actually going backwards with hybrid due to the cancelled VINs while they already have a quarter of the EB orders scheduled.

Math:
77,800 (known value on November 1)
+ 6,900 (estimated Cancelled VINs)
- 14,000 (estimated scheduled for Dec & January based on November production data)

=70,700 estimate remaining orders to be scheduled starting Feb 1... again assuming Ford is done with January.

At a production of 7,000 per month, Ford can build 4,550 EBs and only 2,450 Hybrids. That means that based on a production of just 7,000 per month, the last EB order will be scheduled for June 2024 while Ford has enough Hybrids to last them until they announce the 2025 model year.

Here is hoping they can ramp up.

View attachment 80371

We all know you have one of those massive boards in your basement where you work this out with red string, Mexican cargo train schedules and pictures of LM Tim and Jim Farley...

 

[mktmgrjrm]

Not casting aspersions on your math, but there's got to be something besides production numbers at work here. FORD has scheduled out January and part of February, and was supposed to give priority to the rolled orders. My order is one of the ~6,900 that had a VIN# and a production date. It's been sitting at priority 2 since FORD put it there at the end of November. No new info, and 'Unscheduled - Clean' through two rounds of scheduling. No constraint items other than the hybrid powertrain. And if you believe the posts on this forum, there are brand new MY23 orders for hybrids being scheduled and built. I'm beginning to think that there is a dark room somewhere at FORD HQ where a snot-nosed kid is rolling a pair of dice to see who's truck gets built.

 

[commadorebob]

We all know you have one of those massive boards in your basement where you work this out with red string, Mexican cargo train schedules and pictures of LM Tim and Jim Farley...

I don't have a basement. Mexican cargo train schedules, however....

 

[KevCuRaoi]

I like the "Tommy was here!" with the Lariat "Ultimate Package." LOL

I'm rather disappointed that there's no "Tommy was here" on the copy I got from WBDO!

 

[commadorebob]

Not casting aspersions on your math, but there's got to be something besides production numbers at work here. FORD has scheduled out January and part of February, and was supposed to give priority to the rolled orders. My order is one of the ~6,900 that had a VIN# and a production date. It's been sitting at priority 2 since FORD put it there at the end of November. No new info, and 'Unscheduled - Clean' through two rounds of scheduling. No constraint items other than the hybrid powertrain. And if you believe the posts on this forum, there are brand new MY23 orders for hybrids being scheduled and built. I'm beginning to think that there is a dark room somewhere at FORD HQ where a snot-nosed kid is rolling a pair of dice to see who's truck gets built.

I ignored the allocations in the first paragraph to make the math easier. But the fact the total number of hybrid orders left went up means not all of the 6,900 were scheduled and Ford was scheduling new hybrid orders at the time the November 1 numbers came out. It does check out on that regard.

Again, I based it on the published production numbers from November. If Ford does more or less, you can just shred the entire thing.

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