Elephant in room: Around 80% of orders are Hybrids.

[Deleted member 5597]

With the way the economy is, no wonder why over 80% orders are hybrids. I currently have a hybrid XLT lux, and ordered a hybrid Lariat, Lux, CP, CP Assist, and BAP. I know our current administration is pushing EV’s, and they should be pushing hybrids. Our infrastructure isn’t ready for EV’s, and what average American can afford one anyway? The hybrid is more economical price wise.

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[SuperDave71]

My daily is a diesel superduty. I drive 4-5000 miles a month for work, which pays me the $.64 the government allows for reimbursemen, average mpg is 19 calculate. I have other needs for a big truck outside of work. I can justify the Maverick just on savings of fuel alone, but if you factor in depreciatio, it pays for itself in 18 months or so.

My quandary is this. With so many highway miles, will I never really see the benefit of the hybrid? and is it worth the risk of a significant production delay to just go for the ecoboost?

Definately first world problems….

 

[Bob The Builder]

Different story up here north of the woodchucks. My dealer states only about 25% of his Maverick orders were hybrid. People up here want AWD, including me.

 

[Darnon]

My quandary is this. With so many highway miles, will I never really see the benefit of the hybrid?

Don't let all of the 'well, the hybrid is only rated for 33 mpg highway' coping from the EcoBoost buyers fool you. The hybrid still gets better mileage (and for cheaper up front) especially in real world numbers if that's your biggest motivator.

 

[bigshmoop]

The percentages don't really mean much to me without having the total number of orders entered and what Ford expects to build.

Quick math:

Let's assume there's been 25,000 orders put in the last 4 business days. 80% of them are Hybrid so that's 18,000. I remember seeing somewhere that Ford built close to 50,000 22's. Since they've claimed to increase production let's give them the benefit of the doubt and say they'll get 60,000 out this year. 35% of the 60,000 is 21,000 Hybrids. Even with heavy early orders they're still under their proposed allotment.

I know my numbers are vague, but the idea is hard to get excited when I don't have all the info.

 

[commadorebob]

Different story up here north of the woodchucks. My dealer states only about 25% of his Maverick orders were hybrid. People up here want AWD, including me.

Funny enough, same down here down South. Not that we need AWD. But registering a hybrid with the state costs $200 more a year.

 

[RockHoundTX]

No matter how you look at it, the numbers don't add up. For MY22, Ford is making roughly 115,000 Mavericks based on the latest VINs and this is over a 15 month period. For MY23, assume roughly 8-10 months of builds. Even if they ramp up production, that equates out to maybe 100,000 MY23 Mavericks. Take into account the 35% hybrid constraint and you are looking at only 35k hybrids. My estimate is that probably 15,000 - 20,000 MY22 hybrid orders did not get built and were rolled over (I was one of them).

So how many orders were placed? Per Ford's website, there are over 3000 Ford dealers. Even the smallest of the small dealers (I went with one of these last year) likely have 10-20 orders. Mid-sized dealers on here are reporting 150-250 orders and large dealers are already reporting 500+ orders. Averaging everything out and being slightly conservative, and you are looking at probably 50-75 orders per dealer. That means 150,000 - 225,000 orders. If 80% of these are hybrids, then you are looking at 120,000 to 180,000 hybrid orders. Thus, only 20%-30% of hybrid orders will get filled in a best-case scenario. Even if my estimates are off, it is safe to say that more than 50% of hybrid orders will not get built.

Needless to say, I am not feeling very optimistic on my Hybrid XL (roughly 5250 to be built based on 15% hybrid XL constraint) that got rolled over from Oct, 2021 order :-/

 

[Bob The Builder]

Funny enough, same down here down South. Not that we need AWD. But registering a hybrid with the state costs $200 more a year.

Given the few miles I drive a year, that $200 bucks would take a huge bite out of the gas savings over a EB. Like almost most of it. Back in the day when I drove 25K a year, the hybrid would have been a no brainer for me.

 

[commadorebob]

Given the few miles I drive a year, that $200 bucks would take a huge bite out of the gas savings over a EB. Like almost most of it. Back in the day when I drove 25K a year, the hybrid would have been a no brainer for me.

Same here. I did the numbers and gas would have to stay at over $6 a gallon for a hybrid to make sense due to me working from home and if it is $6 a gallon here, the current administration would voluntarily step down.

 

[RockHoundTX]

The percentages don't really mean much to me without having the total number of orders entered and what Ford expects to build.

Quick math:

Let's assume there's been 25,000 orders put in the last 4 business days. 80% of them are Hybrid so that's 18,000. I remember seeing somewhere that Ford built close to 50,000 22's. Since they've claimed to increase production let's give them the benefit of the doubt and say they'll get 60,000 out this year. 35% of the 60,000 is 21,000 Hybrids. Even with heavy early orders they're still under their proposed allotment.

I know my numbers are vague, but the idea is hard to get excited when I don't have all the info.

Unfortunately, I think your numbers are way, way off. If you just add up the amounts of the dealers that hang out on MTC have already reported, you are already in the 5k-10k range (and these dealers make up only 1% of Ford's dealer network but probably have an above-average number of orders). I can say with confidence that over 1000 orders were placed just in the Austin, TX area in the last 4 days (and probably closer to 2k). MY guess is that there were more than 25,000 orders just in Texas alone.

 

[Greg_in_GA]

My daily is a diesel superduty. I drive 4-5000 miles a month for work, which pays me the $.64 the government allows for reimbursemen, average mpg is 19 calculate. I have other needs for a big truck outside of work. I can justify the Maverick just on savings of fuel alone, but if you factor in depreciatio, it pays for itself in 18 months or so.

My quandary is this. With so many highway miles, will I never really see the benefit of the hybrid? and is it worth the risk of a significant production delay to just go for the ecoboost?

Definately first world problems….

With those numbers I would look at buying an Ecoboost with no constraints so you would get it as quickly as possible and also ordering a hybrid that you might not get in for a year. When the Hybrid comes in you can declide if you want to sell the Ecoboost or keep it.

 

[LSchicago]

I think we should start referring to them as "attempted orders". Calling them orders gives the misplaced confidence that they will be filled.

At least I know my order was accepted by Ford. That's a good first step.

 

[gator_dub]

With those numbers I would look at buying an Ecoboost with no constraints so you would get it as quickly as possible and also ordering a hybrid that you might not get in for a year. When the Hybrid comes in you can declide if you want to sell the Ecoboost or keep it.

That is what I did.
With all of the Hybrid orders I'm not confident that mine will get scheduled or produced this year.
I ordered the Hybrid I wanted and then a basic Ecoboost FWD.
I need a truck this year and if the Ecoboost gets scheduled first I can drive it until my Hybird order gets fulfilled then trade it in.

 

[atomguy245]

So basically 2023 ordering is at least as big a fiasco as 2022, possibly worse. No wonder Ford shut off the orders already.

 

[Bbot]

That's the thing though. A Day 3 order might as well be a day 300 order given how quickly there were going in. My dealer put in 112 the first night and they aren't a huge dealer. If you waited until day 3, you will be waiting a while. So, the hope is Ford set the retail limits to be what they can actually build.

And everything is dependent on dealer allocation so the first day 112 orders may be all they will be allowed in total.

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