Elephant in room: Around 80% of orders are Hybrids.

[davnau]

My dealer is fighting me on my COVP order status (It DEFINITELY was seeing as my Bronco was ordered the same day and had to be COVP in order to be built - which it was built).

But it isn't just about me - Ford marketed a $20k truck and really never delivered. It would be interesting to see the number of XL Maverick hybrids produced but I would bet it doesn't eclipse 10k. That's not a mass market vehicle.

The reality is that in early 2021 Ford marketed a $20k truck they never really intended to build. Now the next model year it is $2k more, and if you actually want to get a hybrid you need to order the XLT which makes it a $25k truck.

The truck is 25% more expensive than what they marketed.

I estimate for 2022 that only about 3600 XL Hybrids will be built and half of those will be fleet vehicles. So, yes, retail XL Hybrids are unicorns. Mine ordered 6/15/2021 and delivered 6/17/2022, with only the trailer hitch as an option. So I figure less than 2000 retail XL Hybrids for 2022 and a similar number for 2023. It’s just a tough time for HEV, PHEV, and full EV vehicles.

Everything works fine after over 8000 miles, with 40 MPG around town and a consistent 37 MPG HWY. I really like the Velocity Blue color. What’s not to like?

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[710-oil-614]

Completely understand and agree with you, it was the same deal with 40k lightning, except some people actually got an xl mav. But I kinda already expected that in 2023 , only reason I went with xlt, and then I went BAP , because I hate xlt interior.

I hope you get your 22 rebate!

I placed my order and wrote on my signed order sheet I was requesting the COVP private offer. I also have every e-mail and communication dating back to last August when my ride with Ford began.

We'll fight that fight if the truck ever arrives. I'll still buy it, and I'm not going to get all nasty on my dealer before the conversation ever happens. Especially because I know my sales guy kicks around these parts. Hey Justin!

 

[Xjeepguy]

Hybrid more reliable than an 2.0 eco?? My , are you new to this forum or to this planet? only reason is ,, its less expensive on gas and less expensive (cheaper) to buy than Fx4 AWD. Or maybe its that people just hate 250hp, 277 LBS of torque and AWD and 4K towing Capacity?? Hell I maybe wrong on this , but I dont think so!

If the FX4 AWD 4K 2.0 eco was cheaper than the front wheel drive hybrid, I wonder what folks would buy

 

[Squanch_Lopez]

How do you find out what your order number is

I arrived a few minutes after orders bank opened, was told that my order was the 6th or 7th(at this dealership of course), there were other people there at same time, but I knew exactly what I was going to order so my order got submitted pretty quickly and they gave me the preview order, it says 2006 so I'm assuming they started at 2000 for the mavericks.

So I really don't know, I'm assuming and hoping it's#6, but of course, even if I'm right the rollovers have higher priority, I don't know how many allocations they'll get, so who knows if I'll win the maverick lottery

I will call my dealer on Friday to confirm the order number and other things

 

[Hkak45]

I think more people have had Yeti sightings than Maverick sightings. I won't believe Mavericks really exist until I'm sitting in one.

Until then, I'm just going to ride piggyback on my pet Yeti to work each morning.

Surprisingly I see some almost daily and I'm in a small town

 

[Debbiebugsy]

Should be on the agreement from the dealer.

Thanks

 

[Old Ranchero]

My dealer is fighting me on my COVP order status (It DEFINITELY was seeing as my Bronco was ordered the same day and had to be COVP in order to be built - which it was built).

But it isn't just about me - Ford marketed a $20k truck and really never delivered. It would be interesting to see the number of XL Maverick hybrids produced but I would bet it doesn't eclipse 10k. That's not a mass market vehicle.

The reality is that in early 2021 Ford marketed a $20k truck they never really intended to build. Now the next model year it is $2k more, and if you actually want to get a hybrid you need to order the XLT which makes it a $25k truck.

The truck is 25% more expensive than what they marketed.

That's odd, I really wanted the XL ECOboost and ordered it. Then I added some goodies like 4k tow and it still barely became a $25k truck (still under my budget of $30k, meh) Did somebody FORCE or COERCE you into buying a $25k truck when you really wanted a $20k truck?

 

[Squanch_Lopez]

The other thing to consider here is that maybe Ford learned from there mistakes from last year.

From what I understand, pretty much every Maverick built last year was for retail orders. Sure there were a few made for fleets and demos, but I don't remember seeing any stock orders sitting on lots (unless they were cancelled retail orders, but those were not original stock orders) So, what I'm saying, minus fleet and demos, 100% of all orders were for retail orders for customers.

With all that being said, maybe.. just maybe.. Ford had an internal (no public knowledge) cap on retail orders for MY23. Lets use some totally hypothetical numbers here and say that they plan to build 120,000 Mavericks for MY23. And they put a pre-determined cap at 50% or 60,000 retail orders. They have already said that there will be Stock orders available for dealerships to put on their lots, after the order banks close, so this is not a far fetched idea. So, they planned to close the order banks after this cap was reached, which took all of 5 days. If 80% of the retail orders are Hybrids and 20% EB's, that means that the remaining 60,000 (50%) of the builds can all be EB's and the numbers will work out.

120,000 - Total builds
60,000 - Retail
60,000 - Stock

REATIL ORDERS:
60,000 x 80% (Hybrid, Retail) = 48,000 Hybrids
60,000 x 20% (EB, Retail) = 12,000 EB

STOCK ORDERS:
60,000 X 100% (EB, Stock) = 60,000 EB

that equals:

48,000 Hybrids - TOTAL (40% of the total)
72,000 EB - TOTAL (60% of the total)

60%/40% is close to the 35%/65% numbers that have been thrown around, so my numbers may be a little off, but I did say that they are hypothetical and were used only show my point that maybe the future Stock orders will ALL be EB and even the numbers out.

This make sense, otherwise why would Ford close retail EB orders just 1 day after hybrids if the ratio is something like 70/30 or 80/20 for Hybrids/EBs. Ford could have kept receiving EB orders for a few more days. Unless they're hoping they can convince a good chunk of customers to switch their orders to EB.

 

[strtrkstr]

Regular hybrids used to have a federal credit of $3400 but that expired way back in 2010.

Plug in Hybrids have a tax credit, but that doesn’t help us!

 

[onetequilatwo]

Eco Boosts will get schedule twice as fast and some hybrids could be bumped.

My feeling is Ford cut-off the ordering to leave room for Dealers Stock to order EcoBoost, which is not in the same stratosphere of orders.

 

[F1PRB22GA]

Currently in an Atlanta dealership and the sales person confirmed the majority of their orders are for the Hybrid.

 

[LushRoller]

I don't want to trigger anyone or play the troll. But I've thought from the start that the base hybrid was a loss-leader and a compliance car. I don't expect Ford to ever offer it beyond a limited quantity each year. I should add I have zero evidence to support that claim.

If I'm right, then you folks who are buying hybrids are going to have a very valuable commodity in your garages. A car a lot of people want to buy but can't. Because Ford will only make 50,000 of them each year for the next few years.

I repeat that I have zero evidence to support that claim.

Yeah, I suspect you're right. I think Ford's goal is to make as many as necessary for CAFE purposes (to offset gas hogging F-150s, Broncos, etc.) but also not use up too much of the Hermosillo capacity for more profitable Bronco sports.

 

[MakinDoForNow]

No matter how you look at it, the numbers don't add up. For MY22, Ford is making roughly 115,000 Mavericks based on the latest VINs and this is over a 15 month period. For MY23, assume roughly 8-10 months of builds. Even if they ramp up production, that equates out to maybe 100,000 MY23 Mavericks. Take into account the 35% hybrid constraint and you are looking at only 35k hybrids. My estimate is that probably 15,000 - 20,000 MY22 hybrid orders did not get built and were rolled over (I was one of them).

So how many orders were placed? Per Ford's website, there are over 3000 Ford dealers. Even the smallest of the small dealers (I went with one of these last year) likely have 10-20 orders. Mid-sized dealers on here are reporting 150-250 orders and large dealers are already reporting 500+ orders. Averaging everything out and being slightly conservative, and you are looking at probably 50-75 orders per dealer. That means 150,000 - 225,000 orders. If 80% of these are hybrids, then you are looking at 120,000 to 180,000 hybrid orders. Thus, only 20%-30% of hybrid orders will get filled in a best-case scenario. Even if my estimates are off, it is safe to say that more than 50% of hybrid orders will not get built.

Needless to say, I am not feeling very optimistic on my Hybrid XL (roughly 5250 to be built based on 15% hybrid XL constraint) that got rolled over from Oct, 2021 order :-/

Since there is a lot of whatever this/that going on, consider that Ford does not want the rollovering poop to continue and will structure the 2023 production to be the 65% Ecoboost 35% hybrid. Say the 35% hybrid will be built subject to constraints as 2022 retail reorders then 2023 retail orders. If in one weeks production any open retail hybrid slots will be built as dealer stock subject to constraints of course. The 65% Ecoboost orders production likewise. Maybe a few hybrids could be built if all weekly Ecoboost orders cannot be built, but I would expect that. Large percentage variation of the 65/35% would not occur often due to delivery scheduling of parts etc

 

[ListedGuru]

Because it goes allocation then priority then timestamp. Given the truck was sold out in four days, being on day three puts you way down the list due to your order timestamp. Unless a constraint prevents orders above you from being worked, they have priority.

Well it looks like my two Mav orders (1 hybrid, 1 EB) are both marked 15 for priority. I have no idea how many rollovers or new orders my very large dealership has so I guess 15 is what it is. Probably would be lucky to ever see the hybrid get build but hopefully the EB makes it

 

[NJBob]

This is my hope as well. My wife and I were Day 3 Bronco reservation holders for 2+ years and never got built. We were the lowest unfulfilled reservation number our dealer had for a 4-door for MONTHS and never got scheduled. We gave up on it and ordered an Explorer with took 3 months (to the day) order to delivery. Really hoping this isn't gonna be Bronco round 2 for me, haha. I'll wait for a year, but I'm not sure about 2. Going to need a car for myself eventually; our Escape's HV battery is on its last legs.

With that record I would have bailed on Ford. Good luck!

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