So that would be multiplicative, right? .4 X .05 X .03 X .16 = .0096%
I mean, to make it simple, if there were two constraints of 50% each it wold be .5 X .5 = .25 = 25% - is my logic correct or am I missing something?
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I mean, to make it simple, if there were two constraints of 50% each it wold be .5 X .5 = .25 = 25% - is my logic correct or am I missing something?
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Damn, my odds of getting a build date are still narrow with my order having XLT LUX package and a Hybrid!! I'm still not dropping anything because I want my Maverick as I ordered it!! Pick me Ford! Pick me! I've been waiting since July 5th!! 
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Not stacked. You could be selected with the 40% of them but get screwed on the 3% one. Like scratch tickets at this point on commodity LOL
It's not a random selection (and you can't really define each constraint as "independent"), so it's not as simple as compounding odds. If they need an allocation here or there, and you happen to be here or there, your odds would jump significantly.
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I reached out to my dealer about a month ago and requested to have the spray-in liner removed. I was informed that it wasn't an issue. Just reached out again today. I'm sure this can be done through the dealership or aftermarket, after I take delivery. I don't quite understand why spray-in liners sold as part of a package are not a constraint. Same process, same materials, same labor.
They're going to have to step it up quite a bit then since they only built 5600 Mavs in all of September and 7300 since Day 1. No idea what October will look like. Even making 15,000 per month may not be enough to work through the backlog.
My hybrid order, even though done recently, has no real constraints other than the fact it's a hybrid. Looking to just go with a 2.0 engine AND AWD may be looking better though. My dealer has 80+ orders in and only 4 have gone to in production status - meaning the next 2 months. Patience is not my virtue.
I think we have to understand what ford anticipated the sales numbers of each package and option to be before making assumptions about how far behind production is.
Did Ford intend for 40% of all vehicles sold to be hybrids? Great, then you're right on target for having what you need on hand MONTHLY to build the hybrids they projected.
Did ford expect for 20% of all trucks sold to be lariats with the luxury package, regardless of engine config? Ok cool, not too far behind there.
What about 3% of total orders to be with a tonneau? Historically, how many people bought tonneaus on their F150s and rangers from the factory?
I don't think these numbers mean that there is 3% of the total number of tonneau covers ordered on hand. That would mean that if there were 100,000 pre-orders, and 10,000 trucks ordered covers, then they have 300 covers on hand. These feel more likely to me like, numbers that say 3% of total monthly production can be scheduled with a tonneau vs, I have 3% of what I projected, and my other 97% of the order never showed up.
Did Ford intend for 40% of all vehicles sold to be hybrids? Great, then you're right on target for having what you need on hand MONTHLY to build the hybrids they projected.
Did ford expect for 20% of all trucks sold to be lariats with the luxury package, regardless of engine config? Ok cool, not too far behind there.
What about 3% of total orders to be with a tonneau? Historically, how many people bought tonneaus on their F150s and rangers from the factory?
I don't think these numbers mean that there is 3% of the total number of tonneau covers ordered on hand. That would mean that if there were 100,000 pre-orders, and 10,000 trucks ordered covers, then they have 300 covers on hand. These feel more likely to me like, numbers that say 3% of total monthly production can be scheduled with a tonneau vs, I have 3% of what I projected, and my other 97% of the order never showed up.
I'm just screwing myself. Hybrid, Lariat Lux and hard folding. Damn...Received list this AM.
Be advised a Spray in Bedliner included in a package is not affected by the "Bedliner 3%"... If you can live without one of these items, have it removed to help expedite your order. Note that each dealer is affected differently.
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That's not wrong, but all production requires a ramp up period. Some of it is definitely constraints, but there have to be issues to work through on a new line. What did bronco sport start up numbers look like?
No idea on the Bronco but there is a Bronco for sale here near Cincinnati for $124,000 - they doubled the MSRP. I'm a new customer for Ford (from Honda). This is my first experience actually ordering a vehicle as a brand new model, and may be the last, lol. I completely understand the ramp-up of anything new, been in BD and NPD all my life. I just think they (Ford) may still have some rosy colored glasses on in terms of fulfilling all of 2022 orders since the ramping is taking a wee bit longer than expected. Basing that last comment on what I have gleaned here in the past few weeks, not my personal opinion.
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Well I'm half of that list.Received list this AM.
Be advised a Spray in Bedliner included in a package is not affected by the "Bedliner 3%"... If you can live without one of these items, have it removed to help expedite your order. Note that each dealer is affected differently.
More hopes and dreams.
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