Analysis of January Scheduling

[JBnorthTX]

I was told by my salesman that part of the problem is that Ford was projecting the hybrid would constitute about 40% of orders and the others 60%. It ended up being the opposite.

Yes, that's why there has been a 40% constraint on hybrid production.

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[Delzona]

We probably can't infer from these numbers that Ford is scheduling more hybrids than Ecos. We might have a greater ratio of hybrid to Eco here than the general population.

One thing I've noticed is people with July orders don't like seeing August orders scheduled, but people with June orders don't seem to complain when July orders get scheduled.

That's a good about the sample of eco vs hybrid on the forum.
Ues, I've noticed that about June order have complained as much about July folks getting orders before them. I do think there's a smaller June group on the forum which has shrunk since hybrid builds has risen a lot lately. I think the reason you see more July folks complain is because July has the largest group of people who ordered (I think). I certainly haven't complained about a June order getting a build date because each one them scheduled puts me another tiny closer to my order

 

[Bootstrap6]

pretty neat little stat sheet. Guess i can "expect" my order ( Oct 26) around September.

 

[JBnorthTX]

Hell, at that build rate we'll be lucky to get a truck by 2024.

You can't conclude much about the overall build rate from this. If we knew that everyone who initially posted info in the tracker is also posting in the scheduling email threads then we might have an idea, but it's highly doubtful that's the case.

 

[JBnorthTX]

pretty neat little stat sheet. Guess i can "expect" my order ( Oct 26) around September.

Hybrid? If so probably no sooner than a June build date. I'm hoping for an April build date for my August order.

 

[Lucarl]

The next email you should receive is notifying you that the truck is built. Given we are just into that week now, I don't think there's anything to be worried about yet.

At what point does the dealer request a deposit? I haven't heard from them and my sales person is no longer there

 

[JBnorthTX]

At what point does the dealer request a deposit? I haven't heard from them and my sales person is no longer there

Policies on deposits are dealer specific. If the dealer requires a deposit it would be at the time the order is made. (I've never heard of it done any other way.) My dealer did not require one.

 

[Lone Star Proud]

I was told by my salesman that part of the problem is that Ford was projecting the hybrid would constitute about 40% of orders and the others 60%. It ended up being the opposite.

Ford screwed that projection all too he

You can't conclude much about the overall build rate from this. If we knew that everyone who initially posted info in the tracker is also posting in the scheduling email threads then we might have an idea, but it's highly doubtful that's the case.

I agree with you, but it surprises me that a larger number of members aren't entering their good news here.

 

[BG43017]

JB, Thank you for the analysis. Much appreciated. Pls keep it up!

 

[ttthhasdf]

Ford screwed that projection all to hell

I suggest that they knew how many they wanted to sell to met cafe standards and the number planned to produce was set at that. I believe that when they hit that number for hybrids they cut the hybrids off, and now they have hit the number for ecoboosts to cut it off, too. My bet would be that the end numbers look in the range of 40% hybrid.

 

[zBernie]

From the 1/13 and 1/20 scheduling email threads, here are totals by order date. I'll edit and add what gets scheduled this week, but given it's "cleanup" it's probably not going to be very many. Just like last month (except for one September outlier), the hybrid orders scheduled were all from June, July and August. However, orders from August were the greatest number scheduled whereas last month July orders were the highest number. Also, there was a shift to orders from later in August getting scheduled. Last month, no hybrids ordered after 8/12 were scheduled. This month, 14 of the 25 August hybrid orders were made after 8/15.

Ecoboost orders scheduled were nearly all August or later orders, and over 1/3 of them were made in December and January.

	June​	July​	Aug​	Sept​	Oct​	Nov​	Dec​	Jan​	Total​
Hybrid	21​	19​	25​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​	65
Ecoboost	1​	1​	8​	4​	5​	0​	8​	4​	31
Not Stated	2​	1​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​	3

Here's how the scheduled builds shake out by trim level:

Lariat​	Lariat Lux​	XLT​	XLT Lux​	XL​
3​	40​	19​	26​	11​

With all the talk of spray-in bedliners holding things up, it's interesting that the majority of trucks scheduled were Lariat Lux and XLT Lux packages.

Thank you for the information! I ordered my XLT/hybrid July 29th. This information suggests I'm getting close!

 

[TooManyVehicles]

I suggest that they knew how many they wanted to sell to met cafe standards and the number planned to produce was set at that. I believe that when they hit that number for hybrids they cut the hybrids off, and now they have hit the number for ecoboosts to cut it off, too. My bet would be that the end numbers look in the range of 40% hybrid.

This is an interesting hypothesis which we should explore. Let’s say for argument sake that Ford knew up front that there would be strong demand for the hybrid variant given the aggressive pricing and expected mpg values. Perhaps even a “loss leader” (or close to it). So price it to get a real vibe going, take orders, and when enough to meet tone corporate cafe number is met...stop taking orders. It also plays Into the crew cab setup (vs. regular cab with longer bed).

 

[Wawesson]

My Lariat FX Ecoboost was ordered in June. Production started Jan 3. Ford tracking had delivery Feb 1, no data on production status. Today delivery to UT changed to Feb 19. Still no data on production status. Something is holding it up.

 

[NOLAguy]

Good info, even with small sample size it probably accurately reflects trends- thanks

 

[djd3]

Sorry, I only tracked scheduling by order date last month. Trim level was an addition this month.

No worries - thanks though.
Ford CEO jim Farley just said on FOX "We’re still in the teeth of it," Farley said. "I think this year will be very challenging for semiconductor availability. We’re maximizing production in our most profitable vehicles. That’s helping offset the loss in production, but it’s a very persistent problem.

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