Analysis of February Scheduling

[Watchman]

I don't think that's what the tracker indicates. The question was posed to everyone, not just Lariat customers. So I guess what that really means is 68% of all Mavericks do not have the Lariat Lux package. That would include all XLTs and XLs.

You could be correct but gee, that would be a strange question to ask if you didn't order a Lariat?

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[JBnorthTX]

You could be correct but gee, that would be a strange question to ask if you didn't order a Lariat?

Agree it's a strange question to answer if you didn't order a Lariat. Some may have answered no, some may have ignored it. The key is what number is used in the denominator of the percentage calculation. All orders or just Lariat orders?

 

[chuckles]

correcting sheet for errors and duplicates:

​	​	ecoboost​	ecoboost​
​	hybrid​	fwd​	awd/fx4​
xl​	387​	105​	162​
xlt​	495​	159​	302​
xlt lux​	847​	159​	641​
lariat​	94​	24​	59​
lariat lux​	642​	129​	495​
first edition​	223​	19​	67​

 

[JBnorthTX]

correcting sheet for errors and duplicates:

​	​	ecoboost​	ecoboost​
​	hybrid​	fwd​	awd/fx4​
xl​	387​	105​	162​
xlt​	495​	159​	302​
xlt lux​	847​	159​	641​
lariat​	94​	24​	59​
lariat lux​	642​	129​	495​
first edition​	223​	19​	67​

Thank you! These numbers look realistic regarding Lariat Lux vs. Lariat non Lux and consistent with the scheduling data.

 

[Watchman]

Agree it's a strange question to answer if you didn't order a Lariat. Some may have answered no, some may have ignored it. The key is what number is used in the denominator of the percentage calculation. All orders or just Lariat orders?

I was looking at this?

 

[JBnorthTX]

I was looking at this?

I don't know how the percentages in those charts were calculated, but they have always looked way off to me and are in no way consistent with the numbers presented by @chuckles in his post.

 

[chuckles]

Yes, the forum's charts seem to be simply feature vs total entries. Not exactly useful.

I took the spreadsheet (on TWOsday) and eliminated duplicates and nonsensical order dates.
I then forced (arbitrarily) 4K towing and FX4 to ecoboost. I dropped Lariat Lux on XLT trims. Given my desired result was rough percentages and not IRS audit precision, this was good enough.

Finally, it was simply a matter of counting individual trim and powertrain combinations.

I believe this to be far more accurate than the simple and incorrect graphs published by the forum.

 

[JBnorthTX]

Yes, the forum's charts seem to be simply feature vs total entries. Not exactly useful.

I took the spreadsheet (on TWOsday) and eliminated duplicates and nonsensical order dates.
I then forced (arbitrarily) 4K towing and FX4 to ecoboost. I dropped Lariat Lux on XLT trims. Given my desired result was rough percentages and not IRS audit precision, this was good enough.

Finally, it was simply a matter of counting individual trim and powertrain combinations.

I believe this to be far more accurate than the simple and incorrect graphs published by the forum.

Good stuff!

 

[Watchman]

Yes, the forum's charts seem to be simply feature vs total entries. Not exactly useful.

I took the spreadsheet (on TWOsday) and eliminated duplicates and nonsensical order dates.
I then forced (arbitrarily) 4K towing and FX4 to ecoboost. I dropped Lariat Lux on XLT trims. Given my desired result was rough percentages and not IRS audit precision, this was good enough.

Finally, it was simply a matter of counting individual trim and powertrain combinations.

I believe this to be far more accurate than the simple and incorrect graphs published by the forum.

Thanks
How hard would it be to arrange the orders by "order date"?

Personally I believe it may help members who have not been scheduled.

 

[chuckles]

Thanks
How hard would it be to arrange the orders by "order date"?

Personally I believe it may help members who have not been scheduled.

like this?

 

[Watchman]

like this?

Oh crap, that's awesome! Thanks, and we'll take anything you throw at us.

 

[Delzona]

like this?

So this looks like Ford did the smart thing by deciding to building 60% Ecoboost even though Hybrid orders are nearly doubled!

 

[chuckles]

What is academically fun is projecting to a universe population.

If we were to assume that our dataset represents 1/16 (6.3%) of the total population, we would be seeing a total of 80,000 units ordered. Currently broken down as an estimated ~54% hybrid/46%ecoboost or ~43,000hybrid/~37,000ecoboost units ordered.

If we then assume nominal build rates of 6000/month produced of ~4000/~2000 hybrid/ecoboost split we end the model year with an estimate of ~40% hybrid built at ~36000/45000 units produced. This would represent a ~7000 unit carryover into my23 for hybrids and an additional dealer stock of 7000 my22 ecoboost units. (really rounding heavily here).

Aside from overselling CoPilot-360 by 10% and other constraint issues that may come up, I hardly see the sky falling. Of course, this is terribly simplistic projection perhaps completely uncoupled from reality.

Cheers, and best of luck!

 

[BlueOval5.0]

@chuckies thank you for taking the time to do this. It sheds some light on the current situation. Keep it coming. Good luck to all those waiting. We will have more build data next week, should start seeing more if the puzzle pieces start falling into place.

 

[mamboman777]

So what's up with the snub of lariat hybrids without lux? Consistent theme for past two months. I specifically switched a while back from xlt lux to lariat no-lux because of constraints (SIBL). Ugh. Can't win. Did only 10% of the lariat customers get no-lux?

It wouldn't surprise me if the hold up is controllers for power seats or some such thing.

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