Latest Maverick Production Key Commodity Constraints + Total Retail Unscheduled Orders (9/25/23)

[lajlmt]

WOW, even the price increase for Hybrids didn't dampen demand for them much.

Probably because dealer markups were making them look less expensive?

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[prsncat]

This report is missing helpful information, and the variance should be against the US capacity for the entire model year forecast.

The missing information is the cumulative orders -- Retail, Fleet, and Stock. I assume rollover orders are included in the current USOB Retail quantity.

The US capacities should have a cumulative production estimate for the 2024 Model Year so we can calculate how many of each category Ford is forecasting for the year. I will use the XL/Hybrid to illustrate what I mean.

Before I do... I hypothesize that my order for an XL Hybrid Trailer Hitch/CP360/SPIBL will be built during the model year.

• Suppose we use the last 9 months of production to estimate the number of Mavericks produced during the 2024 Model Year (8,415/month). In that case, the estimate is that Ford plans to produce approximately 101K units.
• US Capacity is 55%, or 55.5K units will be Hybrids.
• The XL Capacity is 23% of this, or 12.7K units.
• 41.5K USOB Retail Orders, of which 68% are Hybrids, means 28.2K Mavericks -- well below the 55.5K US Capacity.
• If the 68% of Hybrid is split based on the current model percentages, the XL at 40% and Hybrid at 68% for 41.5K USOB Retail Orders means there are about 11.3K Retail Orders.

In theory, Ford can produce 12.7K XL Hybrids, and approximately 11.3K of the 41.5K Mavericks are XL Hybrids. Ford is still within the capacity to produce what is ordered.

Yet... We don't know what the Fleet orders look like. I would imagine a majority of them are XL Hybrids. Thus, the XL Hybrid is near or over the capacity, not by much.

The other models seem to be well within the US Capacities. And, as many have observed, the Lariat Hybrid might be your best bet if you want your Hybrid Maverick quickly.

 

[LSchicago]

Hybrid XL orders specifically--if you look at the rest of the capacities it looks like there's still excess for XLT/Lariats (albeit by a small amount). The overage is almost entirely XL hybrid orders.

But importantly, like you mentioned, the drop in total demand means that all of us with non-xl hybrid 2024 orders should be seeing our vehicles by spring at the latest (pending no major supply chain/production disruptions of course). Huge change from years past.

And all 2024 orders should be built during the year. They still need a lot more Ecoboost orders to fill out the year's orders though!

 

[Thundercougarfalconbird]

• Suppose we use the last 9 months of production to estimate the number of Mavericks produced during the 2024 Model Year (8,415/month). In that case, the estimate is that Ford plans to produce approximately 101K units.

Don't forget there's a third shift now and the model year is going to be 13 months. Based on a 19,3XX highest VIN for the first 6 weeks so far, looking at 12,866 a month or 167,258 for the year. Take out 4 weeks for the plant shutdowns and you're around 154k as your starting total. You can probably round that down to 150k to be more conservative, but still a big jump from past years' numbers to consider.

 

[Automate]

Don't forget there's a third shift now and the model year is going to be 13 months. Based on a 19,3XX highest VIN for the first 6 weeks so far, looking at 12,866 a month or 167,258 for the year. Take out 4 weeks for the plant shutdowns and you're around 154k as your starting total. You can probably round that down to 150k to be more conservative, but still a big jump from past years' numbers to consider.

All true except Ford has scheduled 7 weeks not 6 (10/16 through 11/27). So around 12K per month.

 

[Thundercougarfalconbird]

All true except Ford has scheduled 7 weeks not 6 (10/16 through 11/27). So around 12K per month.

Ah yup, miscounted there. We also don't know what higher non-member VIN could be out there right now. Still on a decent trajectory upwards of 150k.

 

[Automate]

Ah yup, miscounted there. We also don't know what higher non-member VIN could be out there right now. Still on a decent trajectory upwards of 150k.

Yep, it will be interesting to see September's production numbers. Should show the full impact of the 3rd shift.

 

[Bill Quattlebaum]

Projections are not always accurate. How about continued supply chain issues, which are already being mentioned this year? If the 22 and 23 models were really getting priority, they would get built first!

 

[Automate]

Projections are not always accurate. How about continued supply chain issues, which are already being mentioned this year? If the 22 and 23 models were really getting priority, they would get built first!

Priority only matters within orders from your dealer. Dealer allocation is still king.

 

[mdsalemi]

Huge drop in demand vs. last year, but the hybrid orders are still hoping and praying 2024 is the year!

I'm kind of locked in for family and personal reasons. Many of my neighbors here, and friends in other places, have ZERO allegiance to any one car brand or manufacturer. They'd just assume by a Jeep as a Ford, or a Mercedes as a Tesla...and they do.

What these unaligned and unaffiliated people do have is a low tolerance for BS and excuses. So, when you can pick up your phone, order a Tesla without human intervention, and have this new order scheduled and delivered in 60 days or less, or you can pick up any number of good vehicles off the lot, they are not interested in waiting lists, materials supply excuses, blah blah blah. It's all old and tired now.

I'm STILL waiting for the idiots at the CSX Automotive Services facility to simply get my Maverick off their &^%$ lot, put it on a *&^%$# truck, and deliver it the last 12 miles to my dealer! It's going on 2 weeks sitting doing nothing there now, and we're very close to having to extend the lease on my Flex for a 6th time if we cannot get delivery of the Maverick in the next 12 days...If we do that the dealer will have to delay delivery a month since I'm sure as heck not going to make TWO lease payments based on other's inability to simply do their jobs.

 

[Bill Quattlebaum]

Priority only matters within orders from your dealer. Dealer allocation is still king.

Yep, Ford didn't explain that when they said the old orders would get priority! The truth hurts, especially for those of us that ordered from small dealerships.

 

[LSchicago]

I'm kind of locked in for family and personal reasons. Many of my neighbors here, and friends in other places, have ZERO allegiance to any one car brand or manufacturer. They'd just assume by a Jeep as a Ford, or a Mercedes as a Tesla...and they do.

What these unaligned and unaffiliated people do have is a low tolerance for BS and excuses. So, when you can pick up your phone, order a Tesla without human intervention, and have this new order scheduled and delivered in 60 days or less, or you can pick up any number of good vehicles off the lot, they are not interested in waiting lists, materials supply excuses, blah blah blah. It's all old and tired now.

I'm STILL waiting for the idiots at the CSX Automotive Services facility to simply get my Maverick off their &^%$ lot, put it on a *&^%$# truck, and deliver it the last 12 miles to my dealer! It's going on 2 weeks sitting doing nothing there now, and we're very close to having to extend the lease on my Flex for a 6th time if we cannot get delivery of the Maverick in the next 12 days...If we do that the dealer will have to delay delivery a month since I'm sure as heck not going to make TWO lease payments based on other's inability to simply do their jobs.

I have bought 9 new Fords, and 2 new Chevies since 2000. Five of those were work trucks. I knew the Maverick was going to take a year before I ordered it. I was OK with that because I didn't need it. It took 49 weeks. Longest I waited previously was for a 2009 Lariat F550 with a couple "late availability" options. That one took 6 months.

I have zero interest in buying direct from a manufacturer, and I'm fine with the way cars have been sold since I was born. Tesla is OK, but more for those who need an appliance to drive to work. They have no soul, style, or character in my opinion. They simply don't appeal to me.

In my 23 Years of Towing, both of the Chevy trucks I owned had engines replaced. None of the 8 Ford trucks ever did. Ford's were just much better suited to the HD demands of that industry. I tried one Freightliner in 2000. I sold it back to the dealer in 2002 with 40K miles on it after 3 brake failures.

In the End, no one makes a small hybrid truck like the Maverick. No other choice meant the wait time was OK to me. I was driving my truck 20 days after the build date. After getting it, I like it so much I sold my Ford Van back up vehicle. I am down to 3 vehicles again.

 

[Bill Quattlebaum]

It should just be retail, but Ford might have scheduled 4,000 fleet orders.

That might explain why there are supply shortages for the XL orders.

 

[RDRahn]

There are currently 41,486 total retail unscheduled orders as of 9/25/23.

Retail USOB: Is the current mix of retail orders in the unscheduled order bank (USOB) at the time the report was run. The report only looks at orders that are “clean”, meaning they do not have a compatibility error, material hold or on 99 priority code.

Tim (FordVideoGuyj put together a great explanation of this report.

 

[Molsholl]

Yep, Ford didn't explain that when they said the old orders would get priority! The truth hurts, especially for those of us that ordered from small dealerships.

So true! I had an order in at a dealership for a year! Hedged my bets and ordered from a second and apparently larger dealer in July. It was scheduled in 2 months. Crickets about the original 2023 rollover order. It remains to be seen if I can actually afford it though because same model (XL hybrid) currently on the lot is 7,000 over msrp. Price gouge much dudes?!?!?

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