Elephant in room: Around 80% of orders are Hybrids.

[BigB]

I like your thinking Milqueman. I’m going to stop reading all these other posts about allocations etc.. and stick with this until it’s debunked by Ford. It gives me hope and I like that.

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[paneubert]

While I appreciate the time you took to make this post, it is based on a false premise.

Your red text above is not a sure thing. That quote from the memo DOES NOT clearly mean that Ford is reserving a portion of their total builds for Dealer Stock. It means exactly what it actually says. Dealers will not be prevented from putting in as many "pretty please build this for me big daddy Ford" stock orders after the retail order banks close to us private citizens. It does not mean ANY of them will be built. They could all balance out at the end of the 2023 run and Ford will tell the dealers "sorry, we could not build any of the stock orders you entered". Or not. Maybe dealers will enter 50K stock orders and Ford will build 50K stock orders. Either situation is possible. But the memo above does not definitively support either claim.

 

[Milqueman]

Also you are assuming in your numbers that Ford received 35k hybrid orders. My feeling is that they received far more than that.

What you are missing is that Ford did not stop the Order Banks at 35k orders. Their are likely somewhere on the order of 150k-200k orders that were put in over the last 5 days. There are over 3000 Ford dealers and even the smallest of the small placed 10-20 orders. Mid-size dealers placed several hundred and larger dealers were placing over 700. Just the dealers here on MTC placed well in excess of 5k orders (and they represent less than 1% of all Ford dealers).

Maybe, but like I said, nobody knows for sure what the actual numbers are. I feel were all just guessing and getting all worked up.

My hope is that the STOCK orders will all be EcoBoost and that will drive the Hybrid percentages back down and closer to the 35% projection.

 

[Esteban88]

Hate to say it, but I"m wondering why Ford didn't just raise the price 4 or 5 thousand dollars for 2023's. Would have increased their profits and still have plant running at capacity. Instead they're going to have thousands of dissatisfied customers whose orders got canceled.

 

[athertonbt]

If you don't like the numbers now, just wait awhile. Ford changes this formula more often than some folks change their underwear. We went from dealer allocations based on sales volume, to first in first out, to 'whatever we can build without constraints', to whatever the flavor of the month is now. 2023 model year was going to start production on this day, but then it was going to start on that day, and now it will maybe probably start on some other day. Until it doesn't. No reason to place any value on what's being said now, except as a conversation starter. Time will tell.

 

[commadorebob]

Hate to say it, but I"m wondering why Ford didn't just raise the price 4 or 5 thousand dollars for 2023's. Would have increased their profits and still have plant running at capacity. Instead they're going to have thousands of dissatisfied customers whose orders got canceled.

Ranger.

Raise it too high and then the question becomes what is the value proposition compared to the Ranger? It has to be far enough away to justify its existence.

 

[581u812]

So far I have heard from three sources that somewhere around 80% of the orders for 2023 Mavericks are for hybrids.

The Ford Video Guy said that about 80% of their hundreds of orders were for hybrids. That was covered well in this post.

https://www.mavericktruckclub.com/f...xlt-206-lariat-with-80-of-them-hybrids.20750/

There is a poll here that says that 72.9% of the 480 members that answered the poll had ordered hybrids

https://www.mavericktruckclub.com/forum/threads/is-your-2023-order-a-hybrid-or-ecoboost.20390/

There was also a post in the Facebook Maverick group by someone at a smaller dealership that said that 21 of their 25 orders (84%) were for hybrids.

Ford has said that they expect that about 35% of the 2023 Mavericks can be built as hybrids.

Despite some of the wild numbers being thrown out no one really knows how many 2023 orders have been entered but I think that it is pretty safe to say that they have a lot more hybrid orders than they can fill.

It could be that Ford managing the orders well and closed the Hybrid order book before there were way more hybrid orders than they could fill but when you hear about dealerships with hundreds of customer orders I tend to doubt that.

Ford has already said not to expect any sort of price protection like they did for 2022 orders if you do not get a 2023 order. The tone of that memo which also said they would close the order books early sounded a bit panicked.

I set up my preorder in July for my ideal hybrid when the order book was scheduled for August when little of this was known. By Monday it was pretty clear that even with long wait that the odds of me getting that 2023 hybrid were not good so I set up a second order for an Ecoboost with a different dealer. I hope I will get the Ecoboost by next spring if not even by this winter since only 20% of the orders are for Ecoboosts.

We will not be driving a lot of miles each year on our Maverick so the lower MPG does not have a huge impact on us and the Ecoboost will still get better MPGs than the pickup it is replacing so that can work for us.

It is not clear to me if you will be allowed to change your order from Hybrid to Ecoboost after the order banks close. If someone knows for sure it would be good if you could clarify that.

If not then today(9/21/22) is the last day that you can set up an Ecoboost order so you might want to consider if you should change your order to Ecoboost or enter a backup Ecoboost order if not getting your hybrid would be a problem for you.

Any thoughts about this elephant?

My dealer told me today that Ford took around 100k orders total before they shut it down.

Anyone hear anything different?

 

[Esteban88]

Regarding the ranger, there is no ranger hybrid. That's the big draw of the maverick.

 

[commadorebob]

My dealer told me today that Ford took around 100k orders total before they shut it down.

Anyone hear anything different?

If 80% of those are Hybrids, then yes, Hybrid orders have cause for concern.

Regarding the ranger, there is no ranger hybrid. That's the big draw of the maverick.

Fair. But then the question from Ford's stockholders become, "why didn't you just put it in the Ranger if you were going to charge the same?"

 

[Greg_in_GA]

My dealer told me today that Ford took around 100k orders total before they shut it down.

That would actually be relatively good news.

Ecoboost orders would easily be filled.

If there are 80K hybrid orders they could make about half of them which is better than many people are expecting.

That would also leave around 50,000 Ecoboosts that could be sent to dealer lots and that would eliminate a lot of the crazy markups and flipping. With 3,000+ dealerships that is only about 15 per dealer on average but that is better than what they have been getting.

 

[Landric]

I wonder what percentage of orders of the Ecoboosts were with the Tremor package? The only reason I ordered an EB again for 2023 was the Tremor. Otherwise I would have (and originally did) ordered a hybrid. Of course I am in the position have having a 2022 EB Maverick in production, if the only choice was EB for 2023 and there was no Tremor I wouldn't have ordered at all.

 

[Timothyd]

I think we should start referring to them as "attempted orders". Calling them orders gives the misplaced confidence that they will be filled.

Confidence? That ship sailed a long time ago. It sailed with the ships called Optimism, Trust, and Peace.

 

[wblynch]

Hate to say it, but I"m wondering why Ford didn't just raise the price 4 or 5 thousand dollars for 2023's. Would have increased their profits and still have plant running at capacity. Instead they're going to have thousands of dissatisfied customers whose orders got canceled.

If they raise the price now, during a constrained time, then when production catches up (or competition arrives) they’ll have to justify a steep price decrease. That would anger previous buyers to where they could be lost customers, and it would look like a weakness to the general market. Essentially not worth it.

 

[wblynch]

That would actually be relatively good news.

Ecoboost orders would easily be filled.

If there are 80K hybrid orders they could make about half of them which is better than many people are expecting.

That would also leave around 50,000 Ecoboosts that could be sent to dealer lots and that would eliminate a lot of the crazy markups and flipping. With 3,000+ dealerships that is only about 15 per dealer on average but that is better than what they have been getting.

Or they could offer hybrid customers the choice to switch to an EB. I would take that rather than no truck at all.

 

[theway-yay-ting]

If they raise the price now, during a constrained time, then when production catches up (or competition arrives) they’ll have to justify a steep price decrease. That would anger previous buyers to where they could be lost customers, and it would look like a weakness to the general market. Essentially not worth it.

Judging by actions over the past couple years now on Bronco and Maverick, Ford isn't too concerned about losing customers...

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