Elephant in room: Around 80% of orders are Hybrids.

[Scott Asheville]

I don't want to trigger anyone or play the troll. But I've thought from the start that the base hybrid was a loss-leader and a compliance car. I don't expect Ford to ever offer it beyond a limited quantity each year. I should add I have zero evidence to support that claim.

If I'm right, then you folks who are buying hybrids are going to have a very valuable commodity in your garages. A car a lot of people want to buy but can't. Because Ford will only make 50,000 of them each year for the next few years.

I repeat that I have zero evidence to support that claim.

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[Connect]

Yeah it seems like there is a lot of room for more frustration this year. Hopefully the ones who had 22 MY orders are going to get taken care of ASAP with scheduling etc.

As long as something doesn't happen to my current car I'm fine with waiting for a Hybrid. I anticipated not receiving till summer next year. It will hopefully give me time to find out more information on the new Ranger and Tacoma and anything else that may come out in the meantime. It also gives me more time to save towards a larger down payment.

 

[Old Ranchero]

That's the thing though. A Day 3 order might as well be a day 300 order given how quickly there were going in. My dealer put in 112 the first night and they aren't a huge dealer. If you waited until day 3, you will be waiting a while. So, the hope is Ford set the retail limits to be what they can actually build.

I don't think that is possible. My local small town dealer took 30 minutes to enter and confirm my order back in Dec 2021. The sales floor manager was the only person allowed to enter orders in WBDO. Hypothetically, 1 person working an 8 hour shift with no breaks at all doing nothing but ordering Mavericks, that's 16 orders max entered. You could play the multiples game; 2 people x 16 = 32, etc. but doesn't seem likely a small dealer will have multiple people to commit to that single task and train them all on using WBDO ordering tool.

Also, there were multiple reports of system and Ford website crashes the 1st day to take into account. The math just doesn't favor entering 100s of Maverick orders per day per average Ford dealer, IMO.

 

[Old Ranchero]

Yeah it seems like there is a lot of room for more frustration this year. Hopefully the ones who had 22 MY orders are going to get taken care of ASAP with scheduling etc.

As long as something doesn't happen to my current car I'm fine with waiting for a Hybrid. I anticipated not receiving till summer next year. It will hopefully give me time to find out more information on the new Ranger and Tacoma and anything else that may come out in the meantime. It also gives me more time to save towards a larger down payment.

I got another official Ford email last night informing me my simple XL ECO boost with 4K tow production week was pushed back a 3rd time to Oct 3. I expect it will get built at some point since I have my VIN, but probably not ASAP.

 

[Greg_in_GA]

So basically 2023 ordering is at least as big a fiasco as 2022, possibly worse. No wonder Ford shut off the orders already.

It really depends on the details and there is no way to say how many orders were placed and Ford is unlikely to say that.

One silver lining is that by seeing the demand with the number of orders surging Ford may be able to justify spending money to add Maverick manufacturing capability when the supply constraints get better.

 

[TdotMav]

No matter how you look at it, the numbers don't add up. For MY22, Ford is making roughly 115,000 Mavericks based on the latest VINs and this is over a 15 month period. For MY23, assume roughly 8-10 months of builds. Even if they ramp up production, that equates out to maybe 100,000 MY23 Mavericks. Take into account the 35% hybrid constraint and you are looking at only 35k hybrids. My estimate is that probably 15,000 - 20,000 MY22 hybrid orders did not get built and were rolled over (I was one of them).

So how many orders were placed? Per Ford's website, there are over 3000 Ford dealers. Even the smallest of the small dealers (I went with one of these last year) likely have 10-20 orders. Mid-sized dealers on here are reporting 150-250 orders and large dealers are already reporting 500+ orders. Averaging everything out and being slightly conservative, and you are looking at probably 50-75 orders per dealer. That means 150,000 - 225,000 orders. If 80% of these are hybrids, then you are looking at 120,000 to 180,000 hybrid orders. Thus, only 20%-30% of hybrid orders will get filled in a best-case scenario. Even if my estimates are off, it is safe to say that more than 50% of hybrid orders will not get built.

Needless to say, I am not feeling very optimistic on my Hybrid XL (roughly 5250 to be built based on 15% hybrid XL constraint) that got rolled over from Oct, 2021 order :-/

Would it be safe to assume that Ecoboost orders would get pushed ahead of Hybrids and better chance to get Ecoboosts sooner due to chip constraints and lower allocations for hybrid orders?

 

[mtd14]

So far in this poll, the XLT hybrid looks like the least over-ordered trim for Hybrids at a 60/40 vs Lariat (65/35) and XL (75/25). It'll be interesting to see how they handle production planning, and if we see a disproportionate amount of higher profit Hybrids produced, despite demand pointing to producing more low profit hybrids.

 

[Greg_in_GA]

I don't think that is possible. My local small town dealer took 30 minutes to enter and confirm my order back in Dec 2021. The sales floor manager was the only person allowed to enter orders in WBDO. Hypothetically, 1 person working an 8 hour shift with no breaks at all doing nothing but ordering Mavericks, that's 16 orders max entered. You could play the multiples game; 2 people x 16 = 32, etc. but doesn't seem likely a small dealer will have multiple people to commit to that single task and train them all on using WBDO ordering tool.

Also, there were multiple reports of system and Ford website crashes the 1st day to take into account. The math just doesn't favor entering 100s of Maverick orders per day per average Ford dealer, IMO.

When the computer is not being finicky it goes a lot quicker.

I was at a dealership Saturday morning and the salesperson took my information over to the sales manager to enter it and it took less than five minutes for him to come back with the printout for me to sign. That was at maybe 9:30 am on the east coast which was probably before the rest of the country was open.

When I set up the second order on Monday morning at about 11:00 AM it also took about five minutes for the manager to enter the information.

I don't know if they entered the COVP info at the same time or not.

 

[mtd14]

Would it be safe to assume that Ecoboost orders would get pushed ahead of Hybrids and better chance to get Ecoboosts sooner due to chip constraints and lower allocations for hybrid orders?

I think this is a safe assumption, admittedly not knowing their production plan. My rough guess is they plan to produce 35% hyrbids each month and 65% EB each month, to keep part purchasing even across the year.

If we pretend they took 120k orders and plan to produce 120k in a year for easy maths, they would produce 3.5k hybrids a month and 6.5k EBs. Assuming 80/20 (96k/24k orders) holds true for Hybrid vs EB, it would mean all the EBs get their orders in the first 4 months while only 44% of Hybrid orders have been fulfilled come the end of the year.

Other constraints will play into it, but assuming level production planning and some production numbers that would be the outcome. Also assuming they took as many orders as they could product on a total basis, and not that they're stopping it early because they hit their hybrid quota or anything along those lines.

 

[Impetus19]

So far in this poll, the XLT hybrid looks like the least over-ordered trim for Hybrids at a 60/40 vs Lariat (65/35) and XL (75/25). It'll be interesting to see how they handle production planning, and if we see a disproportionate amount of higher profit Hybrids produced, despite demand pointing to producing more low profit hybrids.

I don't quite understand how Ford released those % allocations without seeing the actual orders. I think they were more of a forecasted allotment that probably will be updated as orders are processed.

 

[GTBuzz]

Aand this is why I ordered an EcoBoost.

Yep hybrid last year but mainly because it was lower cost option, but when I saw the constraints were worse this year for hybrid and the EB was same price I switched. So maybe I have better chance this year, even with XL and copilot.

 

[aitch-2-oh]

I don't want to trigger anyone or play the troll. But I've thought from the start that the base hybrid was a loss-leader and a compliance car. I don't expect Ford to ever offer it beyond a limited quantity each year. I should add I have zero evidence to support that claim.

If I'm right, then you folks who are buying hybrids are going to have a very valuable commodity in your garages. A car a lot of people want to buy but can't. Because Ford will only make 50,000 of them each year for the next few years.

I repeat that I have zero evidence to support that claim.

It’s not even “in the garage” yet and I believe this Hybrid Lariat is a valuable truck.

If only FoMoCo could find it and get it unstuck from the “In Production “ rut it’s been in since 8-10…

Ugh.

 

[Darnon]

I don't want to trigger anyone or play the troll. But I've thought from the start that the base hybrid was a loss-leader and a compliance car. I don't expect Ford to ever offer it beyond a limited quantity each year. I should add I have zero evidence to support that claim.

Being a compliance car to be produced in limited numbers in the face of unfulfillable demand is somewhat contradictory to being positioned as a loss leader. Ford could probably easily charge as much for the Hybrid as an AWD or more and still sell out.

 

[ClemsonU88]

Same here. I did the numbers and gas would have to stay at over $6 a gallon for a hybrid to make sense due to me working from home and if it is $6 a gallon here, the current administration would voluntarily step down.

I drive about 250 miles per week (1,000/month). My Frontier got 18 mpg (at $3.33/gal that's $185/month). My Maverick gets 46 mpg ($72/month). That's about $110/month savings. I expect gas to go up after the election in November, so my savings should increase.

At $110/month, that's about $1,200/year. That more than offsets the $200 hybrid fee, which I don't think NC has. PLUS the Federal Gov't is giving me a $4,500 tax credit for buying a hybrid! It would take 22.5 years for the State's $200 fee to add up to the Fed's $4,500 credit.

 

[Greg_in_GA]

Would it be safe to assume that Ecoboost orders would get pushed ahead of Hybrids and better chance to get Ecoboosts sooner due to chip constraints and lower allocations for hybrid orders?

I don't know that "pushed" would be the right word the Ecoboosts should be a lot easier to get.

You also need to consider when the needed parts will be available.

In made up numbers if they plan on making 36,000 hybrids in the next year because that is all the parts they can get then the parts for 3,000 hybrids may be delivered each month. If the plant has a capacity to make 10,000 Mavericks a month then they will be able to make 7,000 Ecoboosts a month assume that they have all the parts for it.

Again in made up numbers, if there were 100,000 orders just entered and 80% of them were for hybrids then 20%, or 20,000 were for Ecobosts. If they do not run into other supply constraints then at 7K a month they could build all the ordered Ecoboosts in less than three months.

I don't know if that is right or not but that is why I am relatively optimistic about getting my Ecoboost order relatively quickly.

Ford could then reopen the order book for Ecoboosts or build Ecoboosts to send to dealers to sell off their lots. People might also decide to switch hybrid orders to Ecoboosts which might be part of the reason why they did not mind taking so many orders.

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