March Maverick Production - 5,400 Units

[fordvideoguy]

I intended to ORDER a Maverick back in June, 21. How do I know if I ordered one or simply reserved one?

Contact your dealer. Did you give a build configuration to your dealer?

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[fordvideoguy]

@fordvideoguy Do you think Ford will give people an option of pushing their order to MY23. Perhaps something like a request to use a special priority code as say 23. This will allow some late orders, who had to select the eco but really want the hybrid to make those changes during the MY23 review time with their dealers and not lose their place in line before all new MY23 orders.

They use priority 99 for those orders.

 

[huunvubu]

If a Vin number already exists that is over 63,000 for units to be built (reference post by Watchman), it seems orders must be greater than 63,000. Now, what we do not know are how many orders exist that do not yet have build dates???

VIN numbers assigned at the Hermosillo plant are for all vehicles made there which are the Ford Bronco Sport and the Maverick so you cannot use the VIN number sequence to determine how many Mavericks were/are built because a lot of the VIN's lower that the 63,000 you quote are for the Ford Bronco Sport.

 

[theway-yay-ting]

If you go down the list of the MTC order list you'll see the highest VIN number is a little over 63,000 for units scheduled through April. Although there is certainly higher VIN numbers out there, if we just use 63k as the base for this calculation, we're already over the the 50k order estimate. So if we use 5,400 units per month for May through December there would be at least 106,000 total orders scheduled in MY22. To estimate the total units ordered we would have to add the existing orders (unknown) that Ford won't be able to build in MY22. I have previously posted before about these numbers and believe the total will end up being 110,000-125,000 Maverick orders to date.

FYI, as of December 31, 2021 Hermosillo built 159,920 Total units in 2021 which 25,880 were Mavericks. 366 Mavericks in June and July with the balance of 25,514 in the last five months of 2021.

I agree with the VIN numbers suggesting there are already 63k scheduled for production through Apr 2022. The 106k number is high, though, as they will only be producing MY22 through Sept (or very early Oct) at the latest, as they have already announced they're switching over to MY23 production on 24 October.

If that monthly number is indeed 5400 for the remainder of the MY22 production run, we'd be looking at 5400/month for roughly 5.5 more months of production, or another 29700 (we'll say 30k) - so a grand total of ~93k Mavericks for MY22.

 

[Watchman]

VIN numbers assigned at the Hermosillo plant are for all vehicles made there which are the Ford Bronco Sport and the Maverick so you cannot use the VIN number sequence to determine how many Mavericks were/are built because a lot of the VIN's lower that the 63,000 you quote are for the Ford Bronco Sport.

As of December 31, 2021 Hermosillo built 159,920 Total units in 2021 which 25,880 were Mavericks. 366 Mavericks in June and July with the balance of 25,514 in the last five months of 2021.

I'm interested in your source as I have a retired Uncle who has worked at most all Ford plants in the US and Mexico and he will strongly disagree. Show me a VIN for a Maverick anywhere near #159,000. VIN numbers are sequential to model, not plant.

 

[RR - All the way]

As of December 31, 2021 Hermosillo built 159,920 Total units in 2021 which 25,880 were Mavericks. 366 Mavericks in June and July with the balance of 25,514 in the last five months of 2021.

I'm interested in your source as I have a retired Uncle who has worked at most all Ford plants in the US and Mexico and he will strongly disagree. Show me a VIN for a Maverick anywhere near #159,000. VIN numbers are sequential to model, not plant.

Agreed. VIN are sequential to model. Bronco Sport VIN's are preceded by initials NRD, whereas Maverick VIN's are preceded by initials NRA

 

[Old Ranchero]

They had 100,000 orders by the end of last August. There are lots of article about it. My guess, they had at LEAST 100,000 more since then. Worst case scenario...25,000 backed put and canceled.

How is Ford going to finish making 175,000 Mavericks before the Fall? They aren't. What's the total number? Have they hit HALF that yet.

your numbers are way off. There was at 1 point 100k RESERVATIONS, but not orders. Back in the fall when full production and shipping started, there were dealers reporting conversion rate of reservations to orders was something in the range of 30-50%. Ford cut off new hybrid orders mid- November and new ECOboost orders end of January. Yesterday I read a post here from Tim the Fordvideo guy where he answered a question about orders they had, and I *think* -( so don't quote me go search for yourself) he said they had 900 reservations of which ~500 actually converted to real orders. If I'm doing the math right, that is a 55% conversion rate. If that is representative of the entire universe of converted orders it would be a total of around 55,000 to fulfill MY22 orders. Ford has already built/delivered ~23k- so that leaves ~32k more to build and deliver for MY22. They seem to be capable of building 5k per month if not limited by constrained parts and that rate would finish MY22 production in maybe end of September. Of course I could be wrong on part or all of that

 

[RR - All the way]

As mentioned earlier, a VIN of over 63,000 has already been assigned. What am I missing here???????? I realize assigning VIN does not guarantee production but it is very very likely!!

 

[Old Ranchero]

As mentioned earlier, a VIN of over 63,000 has already been assigned. What am I missing here???????? I realize assigning VIN does not guarantee production but it is very very likely!!

they have already built and delivered +23k per their own filings. That leaves 40k of the above 63k to complete.

 

[fordvideoguy]

No, we have some orders for a business and we put them as 11 so they were below our retail orders.

 

[RR - All the way]

they have already built and delivered +23k per their own filings. That leaves 40k of the above 63k to complete.

Thank you for your response. In the past with "normal" constraints, production was fairly close to build date with delivery about a month later. Do we agree that these 40k have been assigned build dates? If so, they should hopefully be built by MY23. Now I would hope that future build dates up to or into September will also be built as MY22's. I am not guessing on total production because of constraint unknowns. Just saying 68

they have already built and delivered +23k per their own filings. That leaves 40k of the above 63k to complete.

Thank you for your response. We agree then that at least 63k were ordered. I think it is also at least the number that have been assigned build dates. If constraints do not get worse, we can assume, and only assume, that these will get built and, hopefully, more at the monthly rate we have seen up to now. I am not sure when production will cease for MY22, and if constraints will worsen so I will not attempt to guess at final production

 

[Watchman]

It should be noted that at the end of May, 2021 Ford Hermosillo rolled off the line 59,703 units. I'm sure they all had a VIN number right? Well, this is BEFORE Maverick was even on their production list! So this is yet another fact proving that VIN numbers are Model specific.

 

[Kickstart61]

One interesting tidbit from last night's YouTube live stream with @fordvideoguy was the number of Mavericks Ford intends to produce this month. Tim said it is 5,400 units, which is down from February and also down from a previously stated goal of 6,000.

As Tim noted in the video, if you assume roughly the same production level for the six months remaining in MY22, Ford will produce another 30,000-32,000 Mavericks before switching over to MY23 production.

Bottom line for guys like me who ordered in January: not optimistic about receiving a truck this year. Granted, none of us know exactly how many orders Ford has, but I have to believe the number was FAR in excess of 45,000-50,000, which looks like the total number of MY22 Mavericks Ford will produce.

THX for the info! I'm a january order as well. Thinking of cancelling, but the vehicle market in general is brutal out there.

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