March Maverick Production - 5,400 Units

[JBL14]

6/10 RR FE hybrid, tomorrow it will be 9 months of silence.
One question I have now is if I do not receive my Maverick before the my/23's go into production will I get a discount for taking a truck from the previous model year?

Haha, I've heard over and over you First Editions are almost guaranteed a MY22 build. I think you are in a great position in reality. Envy you a tiny bit, but see the June order. Long wait for you, sorry. 🥲

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[Bbot]

The way I look at it is I'd rather be in line right now than to order a 23 and be to the back of the line at that time. I would get my vehicle a lot sooner if I keep my 22 order that gets moved to 23 then to cancel it and then wait for all the orders to be made which may never happen if it continues like the Bronco did and getting more orders for 23 than you're gonna be way behind the ball game when it comes to having your vehicle built in 2023 model year.

Also the brand manager told me that if there were no constraints they could build all of the current 22 model year orders by the end of 2022 production. But the reason orders will get pushed to 23 is because of the orders that have the Luxury package and the co pilot 360 package and other bed accessories.

Hey Tim, Thanks for the information. How is your Maverick doing?
Mileage, any bugs?

 

[fordvideoguy]

Hey Tim, Thanks for the information. How is your Maverick doing?
Mileage, any bugs?

I don't have a Maverick, my daughter has one. 1k miles, Ecoboost AWD, no bugs.

 

[Steelywilly]

I am a January order. I don't care to to wait. It shows up when it shows up. I have a barebones XL ordered. So who knows.

Same here, I'm thinking about signing mine over to the dealer when it comes in, and ordering the hybrid, which is what I wanted in ttthe first place

 

[Turtle]

One interesting tidbit from last night's YouTube live stream with @fordvideoguy was the number of Mavericks Ford intends to produce this month. Tim said it is 5,400 units, which is down from February and also down from a previously stated goal of 6,000.

As Tim noted in the video, if you assume roughly the same production level for the six months remaining in MY22, Ford will produce another 30,000-32,000 Mavericks before switching over to MY23 production.

Bottom line for guys like me who ordered in January: not optimistic about receiving a truck this year. Granted, none of us know exactly how many orders Ford has, but I have to believe the number was FAR in excess of 45,000-50,000, which looks like the total number of MY22 Mavericks Ford will produce.

Think of it this way you may get a peak at the new Dakota before your truck arrives.

 

[Turtle]

Wow! At this rate I'm going to have to revise down my MY 2022 Maverick sales estimate of 75,000, split 30,000 Hybrid and 45,000 EB. May not hit that, unless Ford extends MY 2022 production again beyond the current early October, 2022 timeframe. This truck is going to turn into a boutique vehicle (i.e. low volume) soon at these low production rates, much like the Hyundai Santa Cruz already is.

This confirms even more why I'm predicting that the EB 1.5L 3 cyl becomes a third engine choice for MY 2023, while keeping the existing Hybrid and EB 2.0L 4 cyl engines. In researching, I find the vast majority of Bronco Sports and Escapes sold today use the 3 cyl engine, so I know it will sell. I know it's a bit of a raspy, and at low rpms, vibration-prone engine. But it's there and would be an easy swap for a base FWD Maverick. Of course, keep the Hybrid, but add this one as an alternative base engine. I know a lot of folks have chimed in that a 3 cyl Maverick would be underpowered, but if you look at the specs, the 3 cyl is very comparable to the Hybrid in power and torque. It has significantly less gas mileage, but still better than the EB 2.0L 4 cyl. Heck, I could see the EB 2.0L switching to only being offered in AWD, much like it is today with the Escape and Bronco Sport and offer the Hybrid and the 3 cyl for FWD only. This would make the difference in MPG between the EB 3 cyl and EB 4 cyl even more evident. It assumes the Ford Chihuahua Engine Plant could produce enough of those 3 cyl engines for all three models, but only Ford knows that. They could possibly import extra engines from the Ford Romania plant that also makes that engine. After all, many of the EB 2.0L 4 cyl engines come from Europe already from the Valencia, Spain plant, supplementing the Cleveland, Ohio plant as a source.

It's all speculation on my part, but we are living in strange times, times I have not seen since the late '70s. Crazy high gas prices and high vehicle prices in many cases. (Inflation was crazy then, too.) I still think the F-150 gas models are going to take a hit in sales from here on out, given $4-5 per gallon gas, and hope Ford can ramp up the F-150 Lightning production quickly. I know lots of folks think this prediction of a 3 cyl Maverick is crazy and will never happen, but we'll see. Stranger things have happened.

In the meantime, I will continue to wait for the scheduling of my June-ordered XL Hybrid, and if need be, roll it to MY 2023. Gas prices are likely to be elevated for a long time.

There are AWD Hybrid Escapes - i have one.

 

[pigsareus]

One interesting tidbit from last night's YouTube live stream with @fordvideoguy was the number of Mavericks Ford intends to produce this month. Tim said it is 5,400 units, which is down from February and also down from a previously stated goal of 6,000.

As Tim noted in the video, if you assume roughly the same production level for the six months remaining in MY22, Ford will produce another 30,000-32,000 Mavericks before switching over to MY23 production.

Bottom line for guys like me who ordered in January: not optimistic about receiving a truck this year. Granted, none of us know exactly how many orders Ford has, but I have to believe the number was FAR in excess of 45,000-50,000, which looks like the total number of MY22 Mavericks Ford will produce.

well if that ends up being the case then Ford needs to alert any person putting in an August '22 order that they won't be getting their vehicle until likely 2024, most people aren't going to be knowingly signing up to anticipate a vehicle 1.5+ years in the future. Most people who ordered last year were anticipating that they'd have their trucks by April or May for sure - in that Ford didn't put out any warning that they were in for a long wait buyers kept putting in orders not knowing that they were entering a black hole of a wait....

 

[pigsareus]

Wow! At this rate I'm going to have to revise down my MY 2022 Maverick sales estimate of 75,000, split 30,000 Hybrid and 45,000 EB. May not hit that, unless Ford extends MY 2022 production again beyond the current early October, 2022 timeframe. This truck is going to turn into a boutique vehicle (i.e. low volume) soon at these low production rates, much like the Hyundai Santa Cruz already is.

This confirms even more why I'm predicting that the EB 1.5L 3 cyl becomes a third engine choice for MY 2023, while keeping the existing Hybrid and EB 2.0L 4 cyl engines. In researching, I find the vast majority of Bronco Sports and Escapes sold today use the 3 cyl engine, so I know it will sell. I know it's a bit of a raspy, and at low rpms, vibration-prone engine. But it's there and would be an easy swap for a base FWD Maverick. Of course, keep the Hybrid, but add this one as an alternative base engine. I know a lot of folks have chimed in that a 3 cyl Maverick would be underpowered, but if you look at the specs, the 3 cyl is very comparable to the Hybrid in power and torque. It has significantly less gas mileage, but still better than the EB 2.0L 4 cyl. Heck, I could see the EB 2.0L switching to only being offered in AWD, much like it is today with the Escape and Bronco Sport and offer the Hybrid and the 3 cyl for FWD only. This would make the difference in MPG between the EB 3 cyl and EB 4 cyl even more evident. It assumes the Ford Chihuahua Engine Plant could produce enough of those 3 cyl engines for all three models, but only Ford knows that. They could possibly import extra engines from the Ford Romania plant that also makes that engine. After all, many of the EB 2.0L 4 cyl engines come from Europe already from the Valencia, Spain plant, supplementing the Cleveland, Ohio plant as a source.

It's all speculation on my part, but we are living in strange times, times I have not seen since the late '70s. Crazy high gas prices and high vehicle prices in many cases. (Inflation was crazy then, too.) I still think the F-150 gas models are going to take a hit in sales from here on out, given $4-5 per gallon gas, and hope Ford can ramp up the F-150 Lightning production quickly. I know lots of folks think this prediction of a 3 cyl Maverick is crazy and will never happen, but we'll see. Stranger things have happened.

In the meantime, I will continue to wait for the scheduling of my June-ordered XL Hybrid, and if need be, roll it to MY 2023. Gas prices are likely to be elevated for a long time.

adding another engine choice isn't going to get the production lines moving any faster, nobody wants a 3 banger gas engine, I wouldn't put that in a Chevette.

 

[pigsareus]

No. We must remind again. That 100,000 number was not orders, it was reservations. Way different than orders. It's estimated that only about 30% of those reservations were converted to orders. That's been well discussed and documented here on the forums and in the press.

probably higher than a 30 percent rate but....what is the big deal with Ford not reporting the actual order numbers? They obviously have the numbers so what's the downside to sharing them? Eventually when the August ordering window opens up people are going to know that there are still many people waiting for their '22 orders and will likely be hesitant about ordering one of these considering it might be more than 18 months until they show up.

 

[projectvortex]

probably higher than a 30 percent rate but....what is the big deal with Ford not reporting the actual order numbers? They obviously have the numbers so what's the downside to sharing them? Eventually when the August ordering window opens up people are going to know that there are still many people waiting for their '22 orders and will likely be hesitant about ordering one of these considering it might be more than 18 months until they show up.

While I agree with others that Ford is under no obligation to disclose how many actual orders they have, you do have to ask.....why don't they? They certainly were quick to point out last year that they had met or exceeded 100,000 reservations. What is different? The answer to that is - they are trying to keep as many people on the hook as possible, waiting on their trucks. If they actually disclosed true order numbers and the obvious fact that many, many more will be waiting a year or more, it would make people bolt and affect their actual sales and stock price. There are a LOT of folks who cannot afford to wait that long. If this is Ford's new and only way of doing business, I would not be investing in their stock.

 

[Watchman]

Bottom line for guys like me who ordered in January: not optimistic about receiving a truck this year. Granted, none of us know exactly how many orders Ford has, but I have to believe the number was FAR in excess of 45,000-50,000, which looks like the total number of MY22 Mavericks Ford will produce.

If you go down the list of the MTC order list you'll see the highest VIN number is a little over 63,000 for units scheduled through April. Although there is certainly higher VIN numbers out there, if we just use 63k as the base for this calculation, we're already over the the 50k order estimate. So if we use 5,400 units per month for May through December there would be at least 106,000 total orders scheduled in MY22. To estimate the total units ordered we would have to add the existing orders (unknown) that Ford won't be able to build in MY22. I have previously posted before about these numbers and believe the total will end up being 110,000-125,000 Maverick orders to date.

FYI, as of December 31, 2021 Hermosillo built 159,920 Total units in 2021 which 25,880 were Mavericks. 366 Mavericks in June and July with the balance of 25,514 in the last five months of 2021.

 

[BradG]

I agree with you on that, Tim. There is absolutely ZERO reason to cancel an order. You have nothing to lose riding it out. Better to hold your place in line than leave and start over in the back. You can always decline your truck when it arrives (whenever that is), but if you give up, you'll never get that chance. Besides, dealers are never going to "cancel" the order anyway. They'll just take the truck when it arrives and sell to the highest bidder.

I find your comment from the Maverick brand manager interesting. If he's telling you the truth -- no reason to believe he isn't -- then perhaps Ford did not have the 80,000-100,000 orders everyone is assuming. Maybe it really is only 50,000-60,000 orders. But unless/until Ford lets that information out of the bag, we are all left to speculate...

The brand manager doesn't know how many orders there are, he's just guessing like the rest of us...... that's a corporate level secret, if we knew that number, we could quickly do the math and calculate how many mavericks WONT get built.

 

[JoeEd]

There are AWD Hybrid Escapes - i have one.

Hello "Turtle". Been scrolling through the site a bit this morning, reading everything from X pricing to number of Mavericks sold, etc. I'm in Maryland, too and am wondering if you have received your Maverick, if you had an issues with the X plan, and do you know the transportation trail that goes from Mexico to Baltimore? Mine was built on 2/27, supposedly shipped on 2/28 and "expected" delivery at the end of the month. Thanks!

 

[theway-yay-ting]

While I agree with others that Ford is under no obligation to disclose how many actual orders they have, you do have to ask.....why don't they? They certainly were quick to point out last year that they had met or exceeded 100,000 reservations. What is different? The answer to that is - they are trying to keep as many people on the hook as possible, waiting on their trucks. If they actually disclosed true order numbers and the obvious fact that many, many more will be waiting a year or more, it would make people bolt and affect their actual sales and stock price. There are a LOT of folks who cannot afford to wait that long. If this is Ford's new and only way of doing business, I would not be investing in their stock.

People "bolting" will not impact Ford's sales of Mavericks at all - Ford sells to the dealership, and the dealership sells to the public. Ford cutoff orders of the Hybrid in Nov and the EB in Jan because they already had confirmed orders for as many as they could make over the rest of the MY22 production year.

Every Maverick that gets produced will sell within days of hitting the dealer's lot. For every person with a Maverick order that decides to walk away, the dealer can add whatever ADM they like, and present demand is driving $5k to $10k over MSRP.

 

[Old Ranchero]

adding another engine choice isn't going to get the production lines moving any faster, nobody wants a 3 banger gas engine, I wouldn't put that in a Chevette.

especially a 3 cyl with automatic cylinder de-activation! I can't imagine that being a satisfying driving experience with auto start/stop and 1 cylinder dropping in and out. Would probably constantly hunt for the most MPG efficient gear and drive me crazy in the process

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