March Maverick Production - 5,400 Units

[DJF]

they have already built and delivered +23k per their own filings. That leaves 40k of the above 63k to complete.

40K more in the next 6 months at their current pace?

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[VICKY]

Well, I could be wrong. But if I am, someone explain how. Again, you have to make some assumptions here, as Ford will not say how many Maverick orders exist. However, if you assume at least 100,000 orders on the books, and only 50,000 units being produced for a year, then 18 months is a very reasonable time frame.

And remember, that's for those of us who have orders on the books TODAY. For those who begin ordering MY23s when the order banks open in August, they will go to the back of the line, and if production levels can't ever rise above order levels, the lead times will only get worse as time goes on. It's a pretty depressing outlook, to be honest...

@fordvideoguy, do you think I'm way off base here?

Yea I'm a December orderer and 18 months make sense, just hope they don't take another 100,000 orders for the 2023 and make them suffer too.

 

[WannaMav]

I am not sure when production will cease for MY22, and if constraints will worsen so I will not attempt to guess at final production

This.

I leave reading tea leaves to storefront "psychics."

 

[theway-yay-ting]

Agreed. VIN are sequential to model. Bronco Sport VIN's are preceded by initials NRD, whereas Maverick VIN's are preceded by initials NRA

Good VIN Decoder ref found here.

 

[VICKY]

You could always order a Cybertruck.

LOL yes life is too short and I have WAY too much patience but I am waiting for mine til death!!!!!!!

 

[Old Ranchero]

40K more in the next 6 months at their current pace?

It's possible they may have inside information on a bunch of deliverables coming that significantly reduces constraints and allows more production. At current pace of ~5k per month you're looking at 8 months. We just started really March (3rd month) + 6 months puts us in 9th month (September). Assuming they have internal information on more expedited parts arriving, they could add a 3rd shift and maybe get 1/3rd more output in the 6 months? It's all guessing and assumptions right now- including that 63k number as opposed to the 55k I was was guesstimating. I have absolutely no insight on how the VIN assignments work, so I just took the other poster's numbers and built off that. Remember they are also trying to get people to drop items from their orders to expedite builds, so that may play a part too. Time will tell

 

[pigsareus]

While I agree with others that Ford is under no obligation to disclose how many actual orders they have, you do have to ask.....why don't they? They certainly were quick to point out last year that they had met or exceeded 100,000 reservations. What is different? The answer to that is - they are trying to keep as many people on the hook as possible, waiting on their trucks. If they actually disclosed true order numbers and the obvious fact that many, many more will be waiting a year or more, it would make people bolt and affect their actual sales and stock price. There are a LOT of folks who cannot afford to wait that long. If this is Ford's new and only way of doing business, I would not be investing in their stock.

well eventually buyers on the hook are going to be seen by other fish in the sea who are wondering wow that guy looks distressed waiting for his truck, he sure has been stuck going nowhere for a long time, i for sure am not going to be biting on that hook. Or something like that :}

 

[pigsareus]

When I put in my August 2021 order I was told by the dealer to expect a Nov or Dec delivery lol. Hybrids didn't even start being built until December and I had 100,000 reservations ahead of me. I assumed they would build 100,000 in a month like they did with the F-150. Mine and the dealer's assumptions were a little off. And we all know what happens when we ass-u-me.

Dealer should have known that the plant only has capacity of 300k a year - so there would be no way they'd be pumping out 100k a month, not to mention they make the Bronco sport there. I am an October order, salesman guessed maybe late spring or early summer...I was/am good with that but now it looks like likely later...not too thrilled with that...

 

[Old Ranchero]

I agree with the VIN numbers suggesting there are already 63k scheduled for production through Apr 2022. The 106k number is high, though, as they will only be producing MY22 through Sept (or very early Oct) at the latest, as they have already announced they're switching over to MY23 production on 24 October.

If that monthly number is indeed 5400 for the remainder of the MY22 production run, we'd be looking at 5400/month for roughly 5.5 more months of production, or another 29700 (we'll say 30k) - so a grand total of ~93k Mavericks for MY22.

I have no clue on the VIN assignment process, but I don't think they are going to get anywhere near 93k Mavericks produced this year. I just took your 63k number and used that for modeling a projection. Is it possible some of those 63k are for units built for South America? I'm sure there are several thousand at least going there. Also, I saw references to Ford possibly continuing to build MY22 units all the way to end of 2022 if needed. They have at least 2 assembly lines in Hermosillo factory right? They probably have contingency plans in place to build Mavericks on both part of the time if warranted I would expect.

 

[Kickstart61]

They plan to schedule those at 50%

Is a simple drop in bedliner a constraint? I've removed everything else.

 

[Watchman]

It's all guessing and assumptions right now- including that 63k number as opposed to the 55k I was was guesstimating. I have absolutely no insight on how the VIN assignments work.

That 63,000 number is not guessing or an assumption. It comes from more that one VIN number entered in the list by members on this forum. I also used the more conservative 5,400 per month rather that 6,000 so based on the latest average builds per month, I believe my numbers are as close to were we'll be December 31 as anything I've seen posted. Ford has over eight months to increase that average. There also could be unforseen events that could reduce the average builds per month. We'll know more when August 24th comes to see if Ford adjusts that projected open order date for MY23 Mavericks.

 

[onetequilatwo]

Using math on your numbers results in this:

500 orders / 900 reservations gives us 55.56% reservations to actual orders.

80,000 reservations at 55.56% is 44,444 orders
and 100,000 reservations at 55.56% is 55,555 orders

Yes, that is reservation, but there are orders from people, who never did a reservation. Considering the June July orders are the heavy months will go with the 80-90k range as orders continued to Jan 27 for eco and Nov 15th for hybrid.

Another way of saying it is just double the lower conversion to orders or 88,888 Mavericks.

 

[Old Ranchero]

That 63,000 number is not guessing or an assumption. It comes from more that one VIN number entered in the list by members on this forum. I also used the more conservative 5,400 per month rather that 6,000 so based on the latest average builds per month, I believe my numbers are as close to were we'll be December 31 as anything I've seen posted. Ford has over eight months to increase that average. There also could be unforseen events that could reduce the average builds per month. We'll know more when August 24th comes to see if Ford adjusts that projected open order date for MY23 Mavericks.

you're assuming you've correctly decoded Ford's digit assignments making up the VIN and that each 1 is valid for a retail unit and that they are building them sequentially based on numerical order of VINs from #1 to whatever is the highest you saw reported here instead of assigning blocks of numbers for different purposes. Maybe yes, maybe no- I have no clue or dog in this fight- and am content to wait and see how Ford pulls this off.

 

[DJF]

That 63,000 number is not guessing or an assumption. It comes from more that one VIN number entered in the list by members on this forum. I also used the more conservative 5,400 per month rather that 6,000 so based on the latest average builds per month, I believe my numbers are as close to were we'll be December 31 as anything I've seen posted. Ford has over eight months to increase that average. There also could be unforseen events that could reduce the average builds per month. We'll know more when August 24th comes to see if Ford adjusts that projected open order date for MY23 Mavericks.

How do you figure over 8 months to increase production, at least for 22s? Everything I've seen indicates 22s will be built until late September.

 

[James L. Harrison]

The way I look at it is I'd rather be in line right now than to order a 23 and be to the back of the line at that time. I would get my vehicle a lot sooner if I keep my 22 order that gets moved to 23 then to cancel it and then wait for all the orders to be made which may never happen if it continues like the Bronco did and getting more orders for 23 than you're gonna be way behind the ball game when it comes to having your vehicle built in 2023 model year.

Also the brand manager told me that if there were no constraints they could build all of the current 22 model year orders by the end of 2022 production. But the reason orders will get pushed to 23 is because of the orders that have the Luxury package and the co pilot 360 package and other bed accessories.

As always: Thank You...

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