March Maverick Production - 5,400 Units

[davnau]

One interesting tidbit from last night's YouTube live stream with @fordvideoguy was the number of Mavericks Ford intends to produce this month. Tim said it is 5,400 units, which is down from February and also down from a previously stated goal of 6,000.

As Tim noted in the video, if you assume roughly the same production level for the six months remaining in MY22, Ford will produce another 30,000-32,000 Mavericks before switching over to MY23 production.

Bottom line for guys like me who ordered in January: not optimistic about receiving a truck this year. Granted, none of us know exactly how many orders Ford has, but I have to believe the number was FAR in excess of 45,000-50,000, which looks like the total number of MY22 Mavericks Ford will produce.

Wow! At this rate I'm going to have to revise down my MY 2022 Maverick sales estimate of 75,000, split 30,000 Hybrid and 45,000 EB. May not hit that, unless Ford extends MY 2022 production again beyond the current early October, 2022 timeframe. This truck is going to turn into a boutique vehicle (i.e. low volume) soon at these low production rates, much like the Hyundai Santa Cruz already is.

This confirms even more why I'm predicting that the EB 1.5L 3 cyl becomes a third engine choice for MY 2023, while keeping the existing Hybrid and EB 2.0L 4 cyl engines. In researching, I find the vast majority of Bronco Sports and Escapes sold today use the 3 cyl engine, so I know it will sell. I know it's a bit of a raspy, and at low rpms, vibration-prone engine. But it's there and would be an easy swap for a base FWD Maverick. Of course, keep the Hybrid, but add this one as an alternative base engine. I know a lot of folks have chimed in that a 3 cyl Maverick would be underpowered, but if you look at the specs, the 3 cyl is very comparable to the Hybrid in power and torque. It has significantly less gas mileage, but still better than the EB 2.0L 4 cyl. Heck, I could see the EB 2.0L switching to only being offered in AWD, much like it is today with the Escape and Bronco Sport and offer the Hybrid and the 3 cyl for FWD only. This would make the difference in MPG between the EB 3 cyl and EB 4 cyl even more evident. It assumes the Ford Chihuahua Engine Plant could produce enough of those 3 cyl engines for all three models, but only Ford knows that. They could possibly import extra engines from the Ford Romania plant that also makes that engine. After all, many of the EB 2.0L 4 cyl engines come from Europe already from the Valencia, Spain plant, supplementing the Cleveland, Ohio plant as a source.

It's all speculation on my part, but we are living in strange times, times I have not seen since the late '70s. Crazy high gas prices and high vehicle prices in many cases. (Inflation was crazy then, too.) I still think the F-150 gas models are going to take a hit in sales from here on out, given $4-5 per gallon gas, and hope Ford can ramp up the F-150 Lightning production quickly. I know lots of folks think this prediction of a 3 cyl Maverick is crazy and will never happen, but we'll see. Stranger things have happened.

In the meantime, I will continue to wait for the scheduling of my June-ordered XL Hybrid, and if need be, roll it to MY 2023. Gas prices are likely to be elevated for a long time.

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[fordvideoguy]

I agree with you on that, Tim. There is absolutely ZERO reason to cancel an order. You have nothing to lose riding it out. Better to hold your place in line than leave and start over in the back. You can always decline your truck when it arrives (whenever that is), but if you give up, you'll never get that chance. Besides, dealers are never going to "cancel" the order anyway. They'll just take the truck when it arrives and sell to the highest bidder.

I find your comment from the Maverick brand manager interesting. If he's telling you the truth -- no reason to believe he isn't -- then perhaps Ford did not have the 80,000-100,000 orders everyone is assuming. Maybe it really is only 50,000-60,000 orders. But unless/until Ford lets that information out of the bag, we are all left to speculate...

I think the number being thrown around is 80-100,000 RESERVATIONS not orders. Because people reserved but didn't convert to an order. We have 900 reservations but 500 orders.

 

[Jakb]

I think the number being thrown around is 80-100,000 RESERVATIONS not orders. Because people reserved but didn't convert to an order. We have 900 reservations but 500 orders.

Agreed. I see this confusion happening a lot. Ford anounced they had over 100,000 reservations but it takes some work to make it an actual order.

 

[davnau]

I think the number being thrown around is 80-100,000 RESERVATIONS not orders. Because people reserved but didn't convert to an order. We have 900 reservations but 500 orders.

Fair point, and is why I suspect any gap in what can be produced vs existing retail orders will be filled with additional EB 2.0L engine dealer stock orders.

And congratulations, that's a ton of Maverick orders for Long McArthur!

 

[Churaumi]

That would explain why Ford is so quiet about numbers ordered. I figured it was to keep the competition in the dark about how popular this thing is, but it could also be to save face about how few actually got ordered.

(And to save some face that they can't even build that number of them, since Ford seems to be the worst off supply-chain wise according to numerous businesses publications)

 

[theway-yay-ting]

The way I look at it is I'd rather be in line right now than to order a 23 and be to the back of the line at that time. I would get my vehicle a lot sooner if I keep my 22 order that gets moved to 23 then to cancel it and then wait for all the orders to be made which may never happen if it continues like the Bronco did and getting more orders for 23 than you're gonna be way behind the ball game when it comes to having your vehicle built in 2023 model year.

Also the brand manager told me that if there were no constraints they could build all of the current 22 model year orders by the end of 2022 production. But the reason orders will get pushed to 23 is because of the orders that have the Luxury package and the co pilot 360 package and other bed accessories.

Tim (@fordvideoguy ) thanks for another informative video last night! One thing that confused me was the statement that production for MY22 would end with August. If the plan is to start taking MY23 orders in Aug and start production of MY23 Mavs on 24 Oct, wouldn't that mean that MY22 production would likely continue right up until a couple weeks before that 24 Oct date?

 

[Bad Actor]

@fordvideoguy You mentioned earlier about dropping constraints to improve your chances of getting a MY22. Are the hybrids still constrained like they were in January at 40%?

 

[fordvideoguy]

Tim (@fordvideoguy ) thanks for another informative video last night! One thing that confused me was the statement that production for MY22 would end with August. If the plan is to start taking MY23 orders in Aug and start production of MY23 Mavs on 24 Oct, wouldn't that mean that MY22 production would likely continue right up until a couple weeks before that 24 Oct date?

I'm not sure how much they will go into September, I was using through August as a safe bet. I know that they will start producing in October, so more than likely they will have 22MY production in September and possibly all the way through September.

 

[fordvideoguy]

@fordvideoguy You mentioned earlier about dropping constraints to improve your chances of getting a MY22. Are the hybrids still constrained like they were in January at 40%?

They plan to schedule those at 50%

 

[ehauser]

I ordered an hybrid XLT lux/360 in August so hoping to see a build date soon. I too have considered cancelling and going with something else. An elk totaled my daily driver last August and I average about a 100 miles a day for work. I need a commuter and not really a truck (I already have an F250) , but every time I start looking at other vehicles nothing else comes close to the gas mileage, options, appeal or price for the money. Since I'm an August order I'm pretty sure I'll get my truck by this summer, but seeing all the folks who ordered in June and July that are still waiting for a build date is pretty depressing and I feel their pain. Like others I was told by the end of the year when I placed the order. Silly me for assuming they meant the end of 2021!

I ordered a hybrid Lariat Lux/360 in August as well. I also bought a new 22 Frontier in February because I couldn't wait any longer. So if my Maverick gets built in the next 6 months or a year from now as a 2023 I guess it doesn't matter anymore. I will most likely sell the Nissan and keep the Maverick, but at least I will have options.

 

[2022EOW]

18 months???? Geeez, there is no way I'm staying committed to that timeline. Life is too short.

You could always order a Cybertruck.

 

[IwannaMav]

I am a January order. I don't care to to wait. It shows up when it shows up. I have a barebones XL ordered. So who knows.

 

[ehauser]

There is the hocus pocus voodoo black magic blind luck factor in all of this, dealer allocations. To assume my 22 reordered as a 23 will be in the "front of the line" is a gamble at best. And, for the wait, I am not compromising on what I want. CoPilot 360 I can do without as well as the SIBL, but I'm stuck with both as I want everything else in the Lux package.

I agree about the SIBL but I actually want the Blind Spot portion of the CP360. I could do without heated seats and mirrors on the Lux Package, but want the SYNC radio. I wish they made it easier to pick what you want instead of having these packages they can't fulfill.

 

[2022EOW]

Agreed. I see this confusion happening a lot. Ford anounced they had over 100,000 reservations but it takes some work to make it an actual order.

Keep in mind, that was a number from last August. There were still orders taken up until a few weeks ago.

 

[pa-outdoorsman]

Keep in mind, that was a number from last August. There were still orders taken up until a few weeks ago.

Yes. Again, no one other than Ford knows how many orders there really are. Apparently they aren't even telling folks such as @fordvideoguy, though the brand manager's comment that they could build all MY22 orders if not for constraints on certain options at least puts the number in some kind of a ballpark. Probably 60,000-70,000, if you are taking Ford at its word that it plans to produce MOST MY22 Mavericks with a modest number pushed to MY23.

However, keep in mind that all of this remains a moving target based on world events, and continued military conflict in Europe, a resurgence of COVID and/or a host of other things could conspire to further thwart Ford's plans. We are in unprecedented times, and trying to take things any more than week by week or month by month seems almost impossible at this point.

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