March Maverick Production - 5,400 Units

[Eagle11]

I haven't seen or read that from any Ford official spokesperson or media account. IMO it is just paranoia from some posters here taking on a life of it's own. Same way so many people became "afraid" their dealer wouldn't honor pricing or sell their ordered truck out from under them. Has it happened? Yes in a few reported cases but not widespread as posts here might lead you to believe.

Tim stated this in one of his last couple of Videos. So I would take what he says as truth.

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[DJF]

Does anyone know what happens with the unfilled '22 orders when they switch to '23? Do we retain our spot "in line" (if there is such a thing), do we need to do anything at the dealership, re-enter an order? Or just wait and wonder...

You will have to sit down with your dealer, go over any changes and basically reorder your truck for 23. You will still be at the mercy of Ford's allocation system and IMO not necessarily be prioritized any differently than any other 23 order.

 

[pa-outdoorsman]

I am not sure why this forum is still "estimating" MY22 Maverick production as 50 or 55K

We know that the later scheduled builds already have VINs over 61,000. VINs are sequential. Maverick VINs are not shared with Bronco Sport VINs; they are separate and only refer to Mavericks. Feel free to point our the errors in my ways!!!

Simple. We are basing it on Ford's reported production/sales to date, plus future estimates of production for the remainder of the model year. If you take the number of Mavericks Ford has produced to date, and then add another 5,500 Mavericks or so produced each month between now and September, you're going to end up with a number in the ballpark of 60,000.

Ford could assign 200,000 Maverick VIN numbers tomorrow, but until those trucks are actually built and delivered, it doesn't matter. So, it's possible the final tally could be well in excess of 60,000. But we will just have to wait and see. Tim said in his call last week that Ford is planning to schedule 5,400 Mavericks this month (for May production). So again, unless that number rises dramatically, how is Ford going to produce more than about 40,000 additional Mavericks between March and September? Remember, Ford has already said they will commence MY23 Maverick production on Oct. 24. If they build 6,000 trucks a month, from now through September, that's 42,000 trucks.

 

[aitch-2-oh]

Shifting focus, thinking my 9/21/2021 Lariat Lux Hybrid Confirmation may be on the O/U cusp of being either a ‘22 or a ‘23, but that could be because the batteries in my Magic 8-ball may need to be replaced, as it keeps showing “shake me again, fool”.

Approaching 6 months into this journey, my salesman pulled no punches with his prediction of “it’ll be 6 to 9 months, without any glitches”.

Non binding, no deposit, have reaffirmed several times “not changing anything, keep it as is”.

 

[Old Ranchero]

Tim stated this in one of his last couple of Videos. So I would take what he says as truth.

I'll take your word for that since I don't stream video channels or audio podcasts. Seems reasonable on the surface. Having said that, I find it very curious Ford would arbitrarily cut off new MY2022 orders in November 2021 and Jan 2022 if they were not very confident internally that they could complete all those MY2022 orders up to cutoff. There is certainly intricate internal coordination/planning between closing of MY2022 orders and opening MY2023 order banks and the expected overlap of closing MY22 production with MY23 ramp of production and I don't see how not planning to build any orders taken after September 2022 fits the big picture here.

 

[DJF]

I'll take your word for that since I don't stream video channels or audio podcasts. Seems reasonable on the surface. Having said that, I find it very curious Ford would arbitrarily cut off new MY2022 orders in November 2021 and Jan 2022 if they were not very confident internally that they could complete all those MY2022 orders up to cutoff. There is certainly intricate internal coordination/planning between closing of MY2022 orders and opening MY2023 order banks and the expected overlap of closing MY22 production with MY23 ramp of production and I don't see how not planning to build any orders taken after September 2021 fits the big picture here.

I don't think Ford planned for the continued and worsening supply issues. They are begging people to drop constrained items to get these trucks built. Their declining production so far this year is not a good sign for those of us still waiting. I have no hard evidence, but I don't see things improving anytime soon.

 

[Automate]

Tim stated this in one of his last couple of Videos. So I would take what he says as truth.

No, what he has said multiple times is if you have a late order AND your order has constraints AND you don't drop those constraints then you risk your order getting moved to 23.

He was also told by the product manager that if it was not for the constraints they could make every Maverick that has been ordered as a 22. The plant has the capacity they just don't have enough of the parts with chips.

 

[Lunysgwen]

So I got my built email last night after just over a month of waiting in production. I have a Lariat with all the fancy gizmos and chips. I'm a July order, so, if you're July/June and haven't gotten anything, you shouldn't be too far behind me. The only constraint I had removed was splash guards (?).

 

[RR - All the way]

Simple. We are basing it on Ford's reported production/sales to date, plus future estimates of production for the remainder of the model year. If you take the number of Mavericks Ford has produced to date, and then add another 5,500 Mavericks or so produced each month between now and September, you're going to end up with a number in the ballpark of 60,000.

Ford could assign 200,000 Maverick VIN numbers tomorrow, but until those trucks are actually built and delivered, it doesn't matter. So, it's possible the final tally could be well in excess of 60,000. But we will just have to wait and see. Tim said in his call last week that Ford is planning to schedule 5,400 Mavericks this month (for May production). So again, unless that number rises dramatically, how is Ford going to produce more than about 40,000 additional Mavericks between March and September? Remember, Ford has already said they will commence MY23 Maverick production on Oct. 24. If they build 6,000 trucks a month, from now through September, that's 42,000 trucks.

So your ballpark figure is 60k. You are saying that the assignment of a VIN is meaningless until the vehicle is built and delivered. That makes sense. On vehicles scheduled to be built, we see a VIN over 61000. If only 60000 are going to be built does that means Ford will build 1K less than the vehicle builds already assigned? If that is the case they might as well not schedule anymore as they will need the rest of the MY production year to finish the present builds scheduled. Now Ford could assign 200,00 Maverick VINs. Why, I would have no idea. A VIN number directly identifies a specific truck and unless there was going to be 200,000 trucks, why would they??

Your math, in my humble opinion, does look reasonable.. Using your 6k per month added to known production of at the end of January of 33,722 plus your projected Feb-Sept production at 6K per month (although Feb was probably around 5400) equals an estimate of about 81,700. That , to me, seems ballpark.

Of course, unfortunately, all this discussion of production will not really influence when we get "our" truck. Higher projected production numbers do give us a chance to be more optimistic that our orders may get filled in MY22. Sometimes it is nice to have something to optimistic about, especially as applied to our getting our Maverick. Peace!

 

[pa-outdoorsman]

Of course, unfortunately, all this discussion of production will not really influence when we get "our" truck. Higher projected production numbers do give us a chance to be more optimistic that our orders may get filled in MY22. Sometimes it is nice to have something to optimistic about, especially as applied to our getting our Maverick. Peace!

Yes, any reason for optimism would be welcome! If they can indeed build 80,000+, then it's likely "most" of us will receive our orders in MY22...

 

[Watchman]

1. Reservations - immaterial to the conversation
2. Orders - only Ford knows
3. Scheduled units to be built - at least 63,266**
4. Built as of January 31st 2022 - 33,722 (waiting for February numbers)
5. Scheduled to be built in March - 5,400 units
6. Scheduled to be built April through December - Unknown

Ford has only been consistent in not being consistent. Existing scheduled build "dates" will likely follow the trends we've seen for months. The projected 8/24/22 date for MY23 "open orders' is a long ways away and is likely to change. Ford will not wait until all MY22 orders are scheduled or built to take orders for new MY23 units. Ford will be building MY22 units for "months" after the new MY23 orders start. And finally, MY22 units built before the MY23 cut off date still need to be shipped and delivered. So it is certainly possible some MY22 units will be sold in 2023 - both Retail and Stock orders.

That said, NOTHING we know is a done deal except the units Ford has already built. Ford could decide to shut the line down tomorrow morning - not like they haven't done that more than once already. Constraints could get better or worse over the next several months as well as the Geopolitical climate - there "is' a war going on. We are at the mercy of Ford and these other factors. We are all just trying to figure out how long the line is and were we stand in that line.

** Ford; "VIN numbers are generated at the time that an order is “Submitted to Plant” for scheduling. The initial scheduling information will show an order scheduled for a production week".

 

[pa-outdoorsman]

1. Reservations & Sales - immaterial to the conversation
2. Orders - only Ford knows
3. Scheduled units to be built - at least 63,266**
4. Built as of January 31st 2022 - 33,722 (waiting for February numbers)
5. Scheduled to be built in March - 5,400 units
6. Scheduled to be built April through December - Unknown

Just one clarification: The 5,400 units Ford is scheduling this month are for MAY production. Remember, production for March and April was already scheduled in prior weeks. No, IDK how many they scheduled for those months. But again, I just used 6,000 as a best guesstimate for the remainder of the year (through September), which would be 42,000 more trucks.

Remember, Ford already announced they will begin MY23 production on Oct. 24. Could that change? Sure, but I doubt it's likely to go much further into the year, because that's well past the time auto makers are typically cranking out vehicles for the following calendar year's model year.

I'm just saying no matter how many Mavericks is able to make a month -- and we all pray it would be 20,000 -- there is a finite amount of time left for them to make MY22 vehicles. The idea that people will be taking delivery of late-built MY22 trucks in calendar year 2023 seems a bit of stretch to me if MY23 production begins in October. However, I can definitely see the last stragglers rolling off dealer lots around Christmas, so you wouldn't be too far off...

 

[RR - All the way]

1. Reservations - immaterial to the conversation
2. Orders - only Ford knows
3. Scheduled units to be built - at least 63,266**
4. Built as of January 31st 2022 - 33,722 (waiting for February numbers)
5. Scheduled to be built in March - 5,400 units
6. Scheduled to be built April through December - Unknown

Ford has only been consistent in not being consistent. Existing scheduled build "dates" will likely follow the trends we've seen for months. The projected 8/24/22 date for MY23 "open orders' is a long ways away and is likely to change. Ford will not wait until all MY22 orders are scheduled or built to take orders for new MY23 units. Ford will be building MY22 units for "months" after the new MY23 orders start. And finally, MY22 units built before the MY23 cut off date still need to be shipped and delivered. So it is certainly possible some MY22 units will be sold in 2023 - both Retail and Stock orders.

That said, NOTHING we know is a done deal except the units Ford has already built. Ford could decide to shut the line down tomorrow morning - not like they haven't done that more than once already. Constraints could get better or worse over the next several months as well as the Geopolitical climate - there "is' a war going on. We are at the mercy of Ford and these other factors. We are all just trying to figure out how long the line is and were we stand in that line.

** Ford; "VIN numbers are generated at the time that an order is “Submitted to Plant” for scheduling. The initial scheduling information will show an order scheduled for a production week".

I totally agree. We are "playing" with numbers betting on the come. Sort of like counting our chickens before they are hatched!!!!

 

[Watchman]

Just one clarification: The 5,400 units Ford is scheduling this month are for MAY production. Remember, production for March and April was already scheduled in prior weeks. No, IDK how many they scheduled for those months. But again, I just used 6,000 as a best guesstimate for the remainder of the year (through September), which would be 42,000 more trucks.

Remember, Ford already announced they will begin MY23 production on Oct. 24. Could that change? Sure, but I doubt it's likely to go much further into the year, because that's well past the time auto makers are typically cranking out vehicles for the following calendar year's model year.

I would be happy to correct my post but it is correct as posted. The thread is "March Production" right. It's also common knowledge August 24th is what Ford is shooting to "Open MY23 Orders", right. Sorry you didn't read it correctly - thought it was pretty clear?

 

[DJF]

I would be happy to correct my post but it is correct as posted. The thread is "March Production" right. It's also common knowledge August 24th is what Ford is shooting to "Open MY23 Orders", right. Sorry you didn't read it correctly - thought it was pretty clear?

I think 23 orders start 8/16.

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