How Quickly Will The 2023 Maverick Sell Out

[paneubert]

Here's what Ford should do:

Open order banks ~9/12 ONLY for existing Maverick orders that are rolling over. Give those folks a chance to re-order a 2023 before opening the flood gates.

Then Ford can simply open order banks for NEW orders, a month or two later. This would at least give a few more rounds of scheduling in which there are ONLY existing orders to select from. I think once new orders bombard the system along side existing orders that are converted and supposedly getting priority, we will once again, see new orders being scheduled before old orders. Ford has no explanation for why that continues to happen so I genuinely don't believe Ford will prioritize rolled over 2022 orders in any way, other than telling the customer that their order has priority.


And before Admin deletes this one for trolling, I'M NOT TROLLLING. This is my real take on this situation, no need to delete the comment and prevent me from further replies like you've done on the last two threads.

Also known as the "2023 Bronco Plan". This is basically what they have already stated they are going to do for Bronco in 2023. I think the only small variation from your plan is that the "few months" that reordering is only open to rollovers is also meant to supply enough time for them to actually SCHEDULE (not necessarily produce, but at least schedule) all those rollovers as well before they accept (or schedule) any new orders. So in theory we wont "see new orders being scheduled before old orders". Other than the outlier cases where someone is complaining that their 2022 Maverick with every single option and add-on accessory from Ford.com is still not being scheduled, yet a base XL Ecoboost with no add-ons got scheduled.

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[jsus]

It's a loss leader product. New lines and factories cost big money. You spend that money on products that make high margin, not low margin.

Citation needed. Maverick is not a loss-leader. It's a profitable entry level into the Ford lineup in general and Ford trucks in particular.

Bronco Sport was the initial product at Hermosillo post Fusion. It's got good margins, it's based on the same platform as Escape and shares many components as a result.

Maverick is also on the same platform, so Mavericks and Bronco Sports can roll down the same line with minimal retooling. Maverick adds volume, adds scale at the plant.

 

[Old Ranchero]

here's what I expect to happen with Maverick- just like what Ford has done with Mach-E and Lighting. Take a butt load of orders, then close order banks at a specified point based on projections of what they realistically have/expect parts to complete. Then re-open banks at a later date while bumping up the base prices...

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/com...-mach-e-orders-hikes-2023my-price/ar-AA118k9l

 

[Old Ranchero]

Why would it be 6 months for the first delivery? Once production starts, shouldn't it be only 4-6 weeks until those show up at the dealerships?

take into account, they run 1 or more "quality check" production days to check everything is synchronized and ready for full production. Add in they now have a Tremor version in the mix with different front bumper and more. There's a 2 week factory shutdown for Christmas holiday. Winter is coming by then meaning bad weather in many areas that will slow logistics, especially the transport truck part. Supply chains will still not be recovered 1st half of 2023 and still will be a shortage of transport drivers. Possiblity of more recalls and stop ships could add weeks of delays here and there, etc.

 

[JazzyJockJeffcoat]

He who hesitate is lost.

Hesitation is defeat, Sekiro!

 

[DJF]

nobody gave anybody false hope. parts shortages and demand hysteria created a procurement bottleneck. Curious how you came up with 20k unfulfilled orders with 8 weeks of production left?

Tim Bartz said 20 percent of LM's orders will get rolled and replied to my question that he thought it would be a fair indication of the total rollover for all 22 Mavericks.. Lots of that 8 weeks will be dealer stock.

 

[Tirpitz]

Tim Bartz said 20 percent of LM's orders will get rolled and replied to my question that he thought it would be a fair indication of the total rollover for all 22 Mavericks.. Lots of that 8 weeks will be dealer stock.

I think Tim made that statement before the last two weeks when he thought no more hybrids or luxury package orders would be scheduled. It has turned out that was not true as hybrids are getting scheduled (not sure about lux packages). So Ford might be able to whittle that 20% down between now and November.

 

[Charles]

Hesitation is defeat, Sekiro!

you snooze, you loose!

 

[Old Ranchero]

Tim Bartz said 20 percent of LM's orders will get rolled and replied to my question that he thought it would be a fair indication of the total rollover for all 22 Mavericks.. Lots of that 8 weeks will be dealer stock.

I know he has his finger on the pulse of what is going on and don't doubt what he says when he says it, but we have actual numbers to work with across the total universe of how many Mavericks are actually built vs. the total of VINs issued (that we know about). Admin here has been posting monthly numbers (from earnings call I believe?) and it includes exactly how many Mavericks are really built each month. I haven't kept up the last couple times, but I think we were at ~72,000 actually built a couple months ago since start of production. Some of us guesstimated the total manufactured would be 106-115k at end of production. My personal belief is there will be roughly 10% rolled, with many being hybrids and people who refused to remove constraints like CP360 and Lux when given the notice it could keep them from being built this year. Of course I could be wrong.

 

[Mav as heck]

I strongly suspect, with zero evidence to back it up, that Ford is content to keep Hermosillo as-is, build what it can spit out, and be content to invest that money elsewhere. Including maybe the next-gen pure BEV trucks. Which is all you'll be able to buy in several states in less than two model cycles (where a model cycle is 6 years).

LOL. I have an electric bridge to sell anyone who actually thinks new ICE sales will be phased out completely in ANY state of the union by 2035.

 

[pa-outdoorsman]

Tim Bartz said 20 percent of LM's orders will get rolled and replied to my question that he thought it would be a fair indication of the total rollover for all 22 Mavericks.. Lots of that 8 weeks will be dealer stock.

Exactly. See my post here:

https://www.mavericktruckclub.com/forum/threads/my22-carryover-percentage.19452/#post-367563

 

[Timothyd]

The market is cooling down, but gas is still expensive, cars are hard to find and plenty of buyers are fed up with ADM's.

I'm pretty sure dealers promising a no ADM are gonna see a significant amount of orders.

I would be surprised if they don't hit 100k by EOY, especially with 20-30k orders rolling over from MY2022

Ya, or, most people who wanted one already got one. First year is always most demanding, most exciting. I bet demand is same or lower as more and more choices come out.

I wanted one last year. Ordered and still waiting and I'll probably convert to a '23. Just remember, there were a LOT of people from '22 that wanted to order but couldn't. In fact, there was no ordering from almost all of this year and the Maverick is still the most affordable truck.

 

[Scott Asheville]

Citation needed. Maverick is not a loss-leader. It's a profitable entry level into the Ford lineup in general and Ford trucks in particular.

Bronco Sport was the initial product at Hermosillo post Fusion. It's got good margins, it's based on the same platform as Escape and shares many components as a result.

Maverick is also on the same platform, so Mavericks and Bronco Sports can roll down the same line with minimal retooling. Maverick adds volume, adds scale at the plant.

Thanks for giving me a huge chuckle. I love that you demand a citation and then proceed to make margin and profit claims with no citations! Had me ROTFL for a few seconds.

Neither one of us can provide citations, because you'd need to be a Ford accountant to do that. I based my assertion on little or no profit on widely accepted industry norms. If you'd like a citation, watch all 500+ episodes of Autoline After Hours as I have. You'll gain a lot of industry insight from a constant stream of OEM CEOS, Project Managers and Design Chiefs. And also insights from professional industry insiders of all stripes. And also insights from the staffs of auto industry analysis firms. And they'll all tell you the same thing over and over - little or not profit on entry level vehicles. They're built for various reasons. Maybe chasing scale. Often chasing entry level buyers for the brand.

Chuckles are great. I get a lot of them reading the posts on here.

 

[Scott Asheville]

LOL. I have an electric bridge to sell anyone who actually thinks new ICE sales will be phased out completely in ANY state of the union by 2035.

I have to respect that assertion a little bit because none of us can predict the future. We can just watch trends. Having said that, I'll make an even more extreme BEV statement. Here it is: States won't have to ban ICE vehicles by 2035 because only an abject fool will want to buy an ICE vehicle in 2035. Because ICEwill cost vastly more to buy, maintain and operate, and ICE will (already does) offer horrible performance compared to an ICE. I'll qualify that by saying "maybe" ICE will still have a grip on some use cases like interstate hauling or operations in remote and rural areas. Maybe.

I base that on a lot of things. All the analysts I've watched keep correcting their ICE vs BEV sales projections every year. Guess which direction the adjust to? Sooner, not later. Second the simple technical progress that continues unabated: Multiple battery chemistries under development. Improved charging speeds and availability. Lower costs and lighter weight. And the simple fact that more and more makers are simply discontinuing all new ICE development - because they can crunch numbers. My favorite reason for BEV fleets in 2035? Solid state batteries. Which don't catch on fire. Which eventually eliminates 200,000 ICE vehicle fires per year in the USA alone.

Autoline did a great segment on large vehicle fleet operators last week. Fleets are rapidly moving in a big way to all BEV for intermediate range and local operations. Because fleet operators don't get emotional or defensive about gasoline. They crunch numbers and adopt the solution that works better and costs less. And that's increasingly BEV. So watch for those BEV school buses, BEV Amazon and FedEx and UPS and US Mail delivery trucks.

 

[19mustang65]

Seems like alot of people got their 2022s. Hard to say if they will have the same issues in 2023.

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