How many orders will not get built?

[BlueOval5.0]

If the order banks open on August 16th for the 2023 model year and the scheduling begins in mid-to-late October, then the 2022 model will be built right up to the point of the change over as there will not be much to change on the line. My educated guess is that you will see some 2022 Mavericks with a build month of 10/22 on the door tag if the dates published do not change.

What does that mean as far as how many orders will not be filled? I have no idea. I am saying they have almost 8 more months of production left and I expect that most of the orders will be built, especially since it seems many of the folks are removing the constrained items off their build. Will some folks get pushed to the 2023 MY? Yes, so it seems. Hopefully it will be those like me who waited until the last minute to place an order and not someone who ordered in June or July of 2021.

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[DryHeat]

What does that mean as far as how many orders will not be filled? I have no idea. I am saying they have almost 8 more months of production left and I expect that most of the orders will be built, especially since it seems many of the folks are removing the constrained items off their build. Will some folks get pushed to the 2023 MY? Yes, so it seems.

"I have no idea" is probably about the best any of us can do at this point.

We are missing two important pieces of the puzzle: (1) how many Mavericks were ordered, and (2) how many Mavericks Ford plans to build. The reality is that we don't know either number and all the calculations we see on this forum are just guesses -- some of them very bad guesses.

But the recent dealer memo makes me think that Ford has a pretty good handle on both numbers. They know how many orders they have, and it looks like they are closing in on the total production number. The memo's suggestions about what to take off your order seem to me like Ford's way of trying to maximize the number of trucks they can build out of the materials they now expect to have.

So, I think Ford could give us a good estimate of the two missing numbers if they wanted to. I wish they would.

 

[davnau]

"I have no idea" is probably about the best any of us can do at this point.

We are missing two important pieces of the puzzle: (1) how many Mavericks were ordered, and (2) how many Mavericks Ford plans to build. The reality is that we don't know either number and all the calculations we see on this forum are just guesses -- some of them very bad guesses.

But the recent dealer memo makes me think that Ford has a pretty good handle on both numbers. They know how many orders they have, and it looks like they are closing in on the total production number. The memo's suggestions about what to take off your order seem to me like Ford's way of trying to maximize the number of trucks they can build out of the materials they now expect to have.

So, I think Ford could give us a good estimate of the two missing numbers if they wanted to. I wish they would.

You are absolutely right. Only Ford knows how many orders they have taken, and even Ford's MY 2022 production numbers are a Ford internal estimate, because things (parts and labor availability) can change over the next almost eight months of MY2022 Maverick production.

Given all that, based on what Ford has publicly announced so far for production and sales numbers, I'm estimating that for the US, they will produce 75,000 trucks, split 45,000 EB and 30,000 Hybrids. My Maverick order estimate, which is pure speculation, is that they took around 100,000 orders for the US, split 55,000 Hybrid and 45,000 EB. Thus by my reckoning, a lot of mostly Hybrid trucks will slide to MY2023. I expect an additional 7,000 trucks will be built for Canada, and another 2,000 for Mexico, Brazil, and Argentina combined (most of them EB), for a total of 84,000 Ford Maverick trucks produced for MY2022.

I may be off, but that's what I come up with, based on what has happened so far. We'll have to wait and see once year-end numbers are all in.

I do know for a fact that my June 17, 2021 XL Hybrid (only option is trailer hitch) order is still not scheduled. No Ford Scheduling email and double-checked with my dealer yesterday. Not angry, and given there is no other option with the Maverick Hybrid XL's combination of price, overall capability, towing capacity, MPG, and size with four doors, I'll wait however long it takes to get it. It's just a tremendous value in my eyes. Just need to actually take delivery.

On a different note, my son took delivery of his June, 2021 order, rolled to MY 2022, 2022 Ford Escape Plug-in Hybrid yesterday. Even got the new $1000 customer order rebate and .9% Ford Credit financing. (That rebate does not apply to Maverick, Bronco, or F-150 Lightning orders, and the Ford Credit .9% financing expires on February 28, 2022.) His 2022 Mustang Mach-E order will likely get rolled over to MY2023. In any case, I have hope that my Maverick XL Hybrid order will eventually get built and delivered.

 

[T McG]

I don't want to detract from the conversation about "How many wont be built", but.....I need to comment. Haha.

I am a moderator/admin for a couple Facebook groups with 50K+ members. I always smile when people claim "freedom of speech" when talking about having their post or comment removed from a forum owned/paid for by a private company. I don't know who "owns" www.mavericktruckclub.com, but they assuredly do have the right to decide what can and can't be posted.

It does not need to make ANY sense.

Admin doesn't like the color blue? "No comments with the word blue in them" rule.

I never understand when folks think they can post whatever they want to a forum owned and operated by someone else. If the owner/admin/mod doesn't get to set the expectations/limits, who does?

A Ford stock owner is who owns this truck club.

 

[T McG]

I notice that you put "facts" and "reservations" in quotes.

I can understand putting "facts" in quotes. It just means that you suspect these aren't really facts. I get that, and other folks have already agreed with you about that.

But why put "reservations" in quotes? Do you suspect these weren't really reservations? If they weren't reservations, what were they?

Inquiring minds want to know...

Not all reservations are/will ever be converted to actual “orders”.

 

[TopGunGoose]

Except your numbers are not accurate currently. They have been producing much more than that the last two months.

Also, the chip shortage seems to be planned to come to an end. Without getting myself in trouble with "insider trading" issues... some of my company's major manufacturers that all use the chip technology are expecting to have backorders filled as follows: 40% by end of June, 80% by end of August, and 100% by end of year. This is including getting current. Based on this info, I'm assuming that this is going to translate into many more vehicles being built (at least those that are waiting on chips).

Just a tidbit of info.

Your company is optimistically stoned then.

Silicon is never going to be current again.

Ever.

 

[Dun4791]

Your company is optimistically stoned then.

Silicon is never going to be current again.

Ever.

Why not

 

[DryHeat]

Not all reservations are/will ever be converted to actual “orders”.

Really? Gosh... I didn't know that. Nobody knew that. Thanks for the education...

Seriously, that's one of the reasons I poked fun at your opening post. Comparing your guesstimate of "reservations" to production figures didn't really shine much light on the issue.

 

[TopGunGoose]

Why not

Because reasons I can't talk about here without being slapped by Mods.

 

[mamboman777]

I also was deleted by the moderator over using one word because they thought it was political. I thought we had freedom of speech but I guess I was wrong also. I agree with you 100% keep up the good work and thanks for your info.

I believe the proper response to this is, you're free to host your own server and community and say whatever you wish.

I've been deleted and moderated, too.

 

[mamboman777]

 

[Bad Actor]

Not only do we not know the rate at which reservations are converted to orders, but we also do not know fleet sales, dealer stock orders or the number of vehicles being manufactured for foreign markets. Any estimate of the amount to be produced is nothing more than a WAG and probably wrong. Ford said it cut off orders when they reached expected capacity. We have no choice but to believe that, they are far more well informed than we are. Expect a long wait and you won't be disappointed.

 

[Thoron99]

I have reservations about the facts presented in this thread!

 

[Jlemke]

Your company is optimistically stoned then.

Silicon is never going to be current again.

Ever.

They've already caught up 20% with another 10% in production. I'd say they're doing alright. And again, not my company. One of the world's leading manufacturers that uses chips. But ok, you do you.

 

[pa-outdoorsman]

They've already caught up 20% with another 10% in production. I'd say they're doing alright. And again, not my company. One of the world's leading manufacturers that uses chips. But ok, you do you.

What do you base your percentages on, considering no one actually knows how many Maverick orders there are?

Still, conservative estimates of 80,000 are probably at least in the ballpark. Given they have produced a little more than 10,000 through February, they'd have to produce nearly 11,000 Mavericks per month for the next six months to meet that. Not likely...

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