How many orders will not get built?

[T McG]

Consider these “facts”

1- Ford confirmed 100,000+ “Reservations” by middle of August

2- Orders kept rolling in from mid-August until January 27th.

3- Let’s guesstimate a conservative 150,000 “reservations”

4- 24,000 units produced by the end of 2021.

5- The monthly average of production is 6,368 units.

6- Only 4 production months left to be scheduled May thru August and 6 actual months left to produce…today thru end of August.

I’ve posted something similar a few times and each time it’s been deleted. That speaks to the integrity of the “moderator”. A vehicle purchase should absolutely be a fact based decision as it’s the second largest purchase most will ever make. Nothing should be sugarcoated, no thread should be deleted, no one should be misled, communicating should be paramount, all information should be transparent and a customer shouldn’t be left in the dark. Ford receives a huge commitment from a customer when they make the decision to buy.

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[Jlemke]

Except your numbers are not accurate currently. They have been producing much more than that the last two months.

Also, the chip shortage seems to be planned to come to an end. Without getting myself in trouble with "insider trading" issues... some of my company's major manufacturers that all use the chip technology are expecting to have backorders filled as follows: 40% by end of June, 80% by end of August, and 100% by end of year. This is including getting current. Based on this info, I'm assuming that this is going to translate into many more vehicles being built (at least those that are waiting on chips).

Just a tidbit of info.

 

[Swami37]

All of them in due time

 

[T McG]

Except your numbers are not accurate currently. They have been producing much more than that the last two months.

Also, the chip shortage seems to be planned to come to an end. Without getting myself in trouble with "insider trading" issues... some of my company's major manufacturers that all use the chip technology are expecting to have backorders filled as follows: 40% by end of June, 80% by end of August, and 100% by end of year. This is including getting current. Based on this info, I'm assuming that this is going to translate into many more vehicles being built (at least those that are waiting on chips).

Just a tidbit of info.

After recalculating and considering the January bump in production… 6,368 monthly average of production… September 2021 thru January 2022.

 

[Hoagus]

I dunno… 1100? My best guess based on nothing in particular.

 

[paneubert]

“Reservations” are not "orders". That is the first thing you need to realize.

If you change the word “Reservations” to "Orders", 150,000 is nowhere near a "conservative estimate/guesstimate" according to the couple automotive industry/automotive publication estimates. Nobody really knows the total order number other than Ford, but folks who do this for a living are not saying anywhere near 150,000.

 

[AnnieWaits]

Also, the chip shortage seems to be planned to come to an end.

"Hold my vodka and watch this!" - Russia

 

[bbhaag]

Honestly I don't think anyone including Ford knows the answer to this question.

 

[Darnon]

Also there's still something like 6 more months of scheduling and 8 months of production remaining. Way too early to be "certain" your order is in jeopardy of not being MY22.

 

[F1PRB22GA]

Conservatively speaking ...

estimate that at least 50000 reservations will not be built in 22.

 

[Rob Cactus Gray]

There is a reason this thread gets deleted. The data is not sufficient to make a determination. Your question is misleading as reservations are not orders. Any answer won’t take into account: allocations per dealer, cancelled orders, constraints, and future build capacity.

If you ordered late, or have constrained equipment, your order may be a 23.

if you ordered a First Edition late your truck will still be built.

If you cancel your truck. It might be built and sold with a large mark up.

How many Hybrids will ford make in July? Ford doesn’t even know the answer.

 

[Mrkosmoo2]

5-10%

 

[Pickles]

Consider these “facts”

1- Ford confirmed 100,000+ “Reservations” by middle of August

2- Orders kept rolling in from mid-August until January 27th.

3- Let’s guesstimate a conservative 150,000 “reservations”

4- 24,000 units produced by the end of 2021.

5- The monthly average of production is 6,368 units.

6- Only 4 production months left to be scheduled May thru August and 6 actual months left to produce…today thru end of August.

I’ve posted something similar a few times and each time it’s been deleted. That speaks to the integrity of the “moderator”. A vehicle purchase should absolutely be a fact based decision as it’s the second largest purchase most will ever make. Nothing should be sugarcoated, no thread should be deleted, no one should be misled, communicating should be paramount, all information should be transparent and a customer shouldn’t be left in the dark. Ford receives a huge commitment from a customer when they make the decision to buy.

Is it a huge committment? Lol we have at worst, refundable down payments…. they get deleted cuz this post is meaningless lol stop losing your mind. None of us know the answer to your question

 

[huunvubu]

Consider these “facts”

1- Ford confirmed 100,000+ “Reservations” by middle of August

2- Orders kept rolling in from mid-August until January 27th.

3- Let’s guesstimate a conservative 150,000 “reservations”

Your premises is faulty from the get go.

Reservations ARE NOT ORDERS Period.

So the facts you state are in fact not facts. (say that three times fast ).

 

[pa-outdoorsman]

No one knows.

But one thing we DO know is there's a reason Ford will never say how many actual Maverick orders there are. If they did, then we would be able to reasonably estimate how many of them won't get built for MY22, and my guess is the number would be fairly big and piss a lot of us off!

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