Constraints / Commodities For January 2022

[HiHo_Silver]

Here is the list for January on the Maverick:

Tonneau Cover Soft Folding - 5%
Tonneau Cover Hard Trifold - 3%
Tonneau Cover Soft Trifold - 3%
Bed Mat - 3%
Spray-in Bedliner - 3%
Bed Extender - 3%
Protective Fender Film - 3%
XLT Luxury Package with SIBL- 18%
Lariat Luxury Package - 16%
Hybrid - 40%

Tim,

If 40% of production is Hybrid and there is a 40% constraint on Hybrids, does that mean that they will only build 40% of the 40% production (which really equals a total of 16%)? Otherwise wouldn't there also be listed a 60% constraint on Eco-Boost?

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[WannaMav]

The unwritten constraint:

Builds destined for small dealerships whose total orders might number as few as single digits: <1%.

 

[YazYaz]

Here is the list for January on the Maverick:

Tonneau Cover Soft Folding - 5%
Tonneau Cover Hard Trifold - 3%
Tonneau Cover Soft Trifold - 3%
Bed Mat - 3%
Spray-in Bedliner - 3%
Bed Extender - 3%
Protective Fender Film - 3%
XLT Luxury Package with SIBL- 18%
Lariat Luxury Package - 16%
Hybrid - 40%

I'm having trouble understanding how these percentages are useful without knowing the total number of Mavericks being built per month.

 

[DryHeat]

I looked at this calculation a little bit different...

Actually, we performed the calculations exactly the same way.

The difference is that I was calculating the total number of Hybrids with SIBL and you were calculating only the number of Hybrids that match your order (Hybrid XLT Lux w/ SIBL).

So what that really means is that I'm more concerned about my fellow truck not-quite-owners, less self-centered, and an all-around better person.

Also more modest...

[ETA: The good news is that I just plucked the 3000 number out of the air to demonstrate the calculations. The actual number of Mavericks built over the last three months averages about 6000.]

 

[DryHeat]

I'm having trouble understanding how these percentages are useful without knowing the total number of Mavericks being built per month.

You can use them as-is to get an idea of what might be holding up your truck.

Or you could look at the production numbers that have been posted on this forum pretty regularly over the last several months. This thread is the most recent, I think:

https://www.mavericktruckclub.com/f...ction-numbers-sold-2-582-6-311-produced.5745/

 

[Delzona]

This is only true if you still have a dealer priority code. I went to priority 2 ten weeks ago and cannot change from SIBL to DIBL on my Hybrid, XLT, Lux, CP360 that was ordered 7/7. So it appears that people with DIBL ordered in November may get their trucks first. 'Orderers' in June/July are being punished for ordering early.

That's true, so now you're held in scheduling limbo hell! You can get passed over because of the SIBL yet cannot change it if you wanted to!

 

[DryHeat]

That's true, so now [at Priority Code 02] you're held in scheduling limbo hell! You can get passed over because of the SIBL yet cannot change it if you wanted to!

I don't know if you still can, but I was able to drop my spray-in bedliner while my order was at Priority Code 02. Details are in this thread:

https://www.mavericktruckclub.com/f...ter-you-are-already-at-priority-code-02.2496/

 

[aitch-2-oh]

[Now Stubbornly dug in, sticking to original order, as generated]

Fast forward 20 years…

Mecum Auctions, the on air voice saying “this next beauty is the rare Maverick Hybrid Lariat Lux with Ford built Spray In Bed Liner, an option that caused a panic in late 2021 that historians put on a par with Y2K and Comet Kahotek. (On air voice continues…) Love the Carbonized Grey…”

Tongue planted firmly in cheek!

 

[Delzona]

I looked at this calculation a little bit different...

Since I have a Hybrid XLT Lux w/ SIBL on order (7/7/2021), it looks like your assumed 3000 Mavericks built in a month will yield 1200 Hybrids (40%). Of those 1200 Hybrids only 18% will have the XLT Lux w/ SIBL will equal a mere 216 units that meet my criteria. 216 out of 1200 significantly reduces the 'Hope' factor to get scheduled soon. But, I am ready to be surprised.

I think you numbers are still off (I realize that you're just using an assumed total production number to start with), but the 1200 hybrids that could be produced you're assuming that all 1200 have the Lux package, which wouldn't be the case. Unless you knew the total number of Lux packages for the 1200 you wouldn't be able to accurately calculate the 18% total to be selected for build dates. If only 200 of the 1200 had Lux package then all would be selected therefore no constraint or (as likely the case) say 400 have Lux packages then only 18% (72, if my math is correct) would be selected for build dates. I will say that math is NOT my strength so I could be wrong.

 

[jhud042002]

It is even worse next year as they start selling the MAV in South America built from the same plant in Mexico

Yep-going to take line space from US Hybrid orders b/c they can only build so many (Eco or Hybrid) at a time. And I don't see them ramping up production in the new year at all....It'll be Fall till most of us get our orders built and shipped.

 

[James L. Harrison]

I ordered one Monday and got the order confirmation.

My rep told me today the 4k tow package finally "took"; and they submitted my order for a Lariat EcoBoost with AWD, 360, 4k tow, spare tire, sprayed bedliner, 120v outlet and Hot Pepper Red paint. Ford confirmed the order today. And expected delivery is 6 to 12 months...

 

[jhud042002]

My rep told me today the 4k tow package finally "took"; and they submitted my order for a Lariat EcoBoost with AWD, 360, 4k tow, spare tire, sprayed bedliner, 120v outlet and Hot Pepper Red paint. Ford confirmed the order today. And expected delivery is 6 to 12 months...

With an Ecoboost, the way things are going you'll get it before my July 7 order. lol

 

[BradG]

I'm having trouble understanding how these percentages are useful without knowing the total number of Mavericks being built per month.

They are building about 6000 trucks a month.....but nobody knows how many trucks Ford has on their backlog, that's a corporate level secret....I guessing Ford doesn't want customers to do the 3rd grade math and come to the realization that their truck might be 10 or 11 months out.

 

[DryHeat]

Unless you knew the total number of Lux packages for the 1200 you wouldn't be able to accurately calculate the 18% total to be selected for build dates. If only 200 of the 1200 had Lux package then all would be selected therefore no constraint or (as likely the case) say 400 have Lux packages then only 18% (72, if my math is correct) would be selected for build dates.

I don't think that's how it works. Instead, I think the percentages relate to how many of the total number of trucks built in the period can have whatever the option is.

So, for example, "Tonneau Cover Soft Folding - 5%" means they have enough soft Tonneau covers for 5% of the trucks that will be built. So if, for example, they were planning on building 3000 trucks, that means they have 150 soft Tonneau covers.

Similarly, the "XLT Luxury Package with SIBL- 18%" means that they have the materials to make 18% of the trucks into XLT Lux packages with SIBL. So, on a base of 3000 trucks, that means they have the materials to make 540 XLTs with Lux packages with SIBL.

The key idea is that the percentages are not based on the number of a particular option ordered. They are based on the amount of materials Ford has available to actually build trucks.

You can see my earlier interpretation and Tim Bartz evaluation of it here:
https://www.mavericktruckclub.com/f...commodities-for-january-2022.6547/post-138261

[NOTE: I use 3000 in the calculations because that is what I used in the previous example. Actual production is likely to be twice that.]

 

[Delzona]

I don't think that's how it works. Instead, I think the percentages relate to how many of the total number of trucks built in the period can have whatever the option is.

So, for example, "Tonneau Cover Soft Folding - 5%" means they have enough soft Tonneau covers for 5% of the trucks that will be built. So if, for example, they were planning on building 3000 trucks, that means they have 150 soft Tonneau covers.

Similarly, the "XLT Luxury Package with SIBL- 18%" means that they have the materials to make 18% of the trucks into XLT Lux packages with SIBL. So, on a base of 3000 trucks, that means they have the materials to make 540 XLTs with Lux packages.

The key idea is that the percentages are not based on the number of a particular option ordered. They are based on the amount of materials Ford has available to actually build trucks.

You can see my earlier interpretation and Tim Bartz evaluation of it here:
https://www.mavericktruckclub.com/f...commodities-for-january-2022.6547/post-138261

[NOTE: I use 3000 in the calculations because that is what I used in the previous example. Actual production is likely to be twice that.]

OK that makes sense. Thanks for breaking it down. Of course now I can see how small my chances are for my XLT Hybrid with Lux package getting scheduled, slim to none and Slim's left town!

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