Analysis of February Scheduling

[Trippleplay]

So what's up with the snub of lariat hybrids without lux? Consistent theme for past two months. I specifically switched a while back from xlt lux to lariat no-lux because of constraints (SIBL). Ugh. Can't win. Did only 10% of the lariat customers get no-lux?

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[Dangro]

My totally back of the envelope ball-park estimates based on very limited and imperfect data.
For hybrids:
65% of orders were placed by August 31st.
Of those, 80% have been scheduled for production.
So if you add in the smattering of September and later orders scheduled, I'm estimating that 60% of hybrid orders have been scheduled through mid-April. So they have maybe 5 months of MY22 production left to schedule and produce the remaining 40%.
Seems doable to me, so long as new constraints don't emerge and Ecoboost and Bronco Sport demands don't squeeze hybrids off the lines.

So I'm fairly confident that Ford can and will produce all MY22 hybrid orders on time EXCEPT for certain orders with specific restraints that they can't work through in time.
I wouldn't even be surprised to see a small number of dealer stock MY22 hybrids sneak onto lots this fall.

Of course all of these numbers are estimates and could be way off reality amongst general public orders. I think the biggest number that may not match up with real numbers is the 65% of orders placed before September.


Edit: I made my guesses based on the database on this site, Reddit, and by looking at these threads. (I personally noticed a number of posters who posted their build date email but did not update the database) so no set of data is perfect, forcing me to make (potentially way off base) projections.

Tim Bartz said in one of his videos that 70% of their orders came in June/July/Aug. Of those orders it was a 60% Hybrid 40% EB. All but 6 of the June/July/Aug EB orders had been scheduled. They had 530ish orders.

 

[JBnorthTX]

Thanks again for doing this. I think it a great way to get a bit of insight into what is happening with build dates. I wish more members would update the stats so the picture would be more accurate. Still the numbers do give a some weight that Ford is working on June and July hybrid orders, but from the last two months it would have be a lot nicer to see those 66 orders from Aug being allocated to June and July. Are you able to capture any First Edition information? I know there has been more of them getting scheduled lately.

The gradual move since December to schedule less June and July hybrid orders and more August orders suggests something is holding up many of the remaining June and July orders. Generally, they have been moving chronologically, as we first saw only early August orders, then later August, and finally some early September orders on 2/17. There were a couple October hybrid orders scheduled, which I think surprised everyone that saw those posts.

I agree there were a lot of 1st Editions but I didn't separate them when I recorded the trim data. The thought did cross my mind, but it was after I was well into it.

 

[DogNamedMaverick]

Tim Bartz said in one of his videos that 70% of their orders came in June/July/Aug. Of those orders it was a 60% Hybrid 40% EB. All but 6 of the June/July/Aug EB orders had been scheduled. They had 530ish orders.

So I'm probably in the ballpark. Maybe 80% of pre-sept orders haven't been scheduled yet, but I'm thinking we are pretty close.

Basically my point of my original post was that they are not really behind the curve that much overall. This was a very popular new launch that probably had 6 months of orders before they even launched production. It was always going to require patience, especially if you ordered in the later months.

 

[Skerry25]

I’m fairly new to this forum, just trying to understand. Is this scheduling in general or just the US? I’m in Canada and ordered my XLT in December.

Based on MTC members' posts in the scheduling email threads of 2/3, 2/10, and 2/17, the table below presents the number of Mavericks scheduled by month ordered. These numbers are not intended to suggest anything regarding Ford's actual scheduling numbers but to identify trends in the age of the orders being scheduled. (It is interesting, though, to see how many more orders were reported scheduled in this forum in December in comparison to January and February.)

As in January, August hybrid orders were the largest number scheduled, but by a larger margin over June and July. There was also a notable increase in September hybrid orders scheduled. Those came at the end of the month, as 12 of the 13 were in the 2/17 thread.

After this table are the January and December numbers from my previous threads for ease of comparison.

February Scheduling by Month Ordered:

	June​	July​	Aug​	Sept​	Oct​	Nov​	Dec​	Jan​	Total​
Hybrid	17​	19​	40​	13​	2​	0​	0​	0​	91​
Ecoboost	0​	0​	3​	4​	8​	5​	6​	7​	33​
Total	17​	19​	43​	17​	10​	5​	6​	7​	124​

January Scheduling by Month Ordered:

	June​	July​	Aug​	Sept​	Oct​	Nov​	Dec​	Jan​	Total​
Hybrid	21​	20​	26​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​	67​
Ecoboost	1​	4​	8​	5​	6​	4​	12​	11​	51​
Not Stated	2​	1​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​	3​
Total	24​	25​	34​	5​	6​	4​	12​	11​	121​

December 2021 Scheduling by Month Ordered:

	June​	July​	Aug​	Sept​	Oct​	Nov​	Dec​	Total *​
Hybrid	41​	79​	27​	1​	0​	0​	0​	151​
Ecoboost	6​	7​	4​	6​	19​	15​	3​	60​
Not Stated	3​	7​	4​	0​	0​	0​	0​	15​
Total	50​	93​	35​	7​	19​	15​	3​	226​

* Four orders (3 hybrids, one unknown engine) are included in the totals but the order date was not specified.


Below is the breakout of trim levels scheduled. I included January for comparison. (Didn't compile this data in December.)

Trim Levels Scheduled in January and February:

	Lariat​	Lariat Lux​	XLT​	XLT Lux​	XL​	Total​
February	3​	52​	30​	25​	14​	124​
January	5​	42​	25​	33​	16​	121​

Based on MTC members' posts in the scheduling email threads of 2/3, 2/10, and 2/17, the table below presents the number of Mavericks scheduled by month ordered. These numbers are not intended to suggest anything regarding Ford's actual scheduling numbers but to identify trends in the age of the orders being scheduled. (It is interesting, though, to see how many more orders were reported scheduled in this forum in December in comparison to January and February.)

As in January, August hybrid orders were the largest number scheduled, but by a larger margin over June and July. There was also a notable increase in September hybrid orders scheduled. Those came at the end of the month, as 12 of the 13 were in the 2/17 thread.

After this table are the January and December numbers from my previous threads for ease of comparison.

February Scheduling by Month Ordered:

	June​	July​	Aug​	Sept​	Oct​	Nov​	Dec​	Jan​	Total​
Hybrid	17​	19​	40​	13​	2​	0​	0​	0​	91​
Ecoboost	0​	0​	3​	4​	8​	5​	6​	7​	33​
Total	17​	19​	43​	17​	10​	5​	6​	7​	124​

January Scheduling by Month Ordered:

	June​	July​	Aug​	Sept​	Oct​	Nov​	Dec​	Jan​	Total​
Hybrid	21​	20​	26​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​	67​
Ecoboost	1​	4​	8​	5​	6​	4​	12​	11​	51​
Not Stated	2​	1​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​	3​
Total	24​	25​	34​	5​	6​	4​	12​	11​	121​

December 2021 Scheduling by Month Ordered:

	June​	July​	Aug​	Sept​	Oct​	Nov​	Dec​	Total *​
Hybrid	41​	79​	27​	1​	0​	0​	0​	151​
Ecoboost	6​	7​	4​	6​	19​	15​	3​	60​
Not Stated	3​	7​	4​	0​	0​	0​	0​	15​
Total	50​	93​	35​	7​	19​	15​	3​	226​

* Four orders (3 hybrids, one unknown engine) are included in the totals but the order date was not specified.


Below is the breakout of trim levels scheduled. I included January for comparison. (Didn't compile this data in December.)

Trim Levels Scheduled in January and February:

	Lariat​	Lariat Lux​	XLT​	XLT Lux​	XL​	Total​
February	3​	52​	30​	25​	14​	124​
January	5​	42​	25​	33​	16​	121​

 

[Wrench77]

I'm too recent to get any info. Just order date, trim etc... No VIN yet so I have no idea. Not complaining. There are people in here that placed orders last July and haven't received there ride yet.
I'm only a month out!

I’m one of those guys 247 days and nothing still

 

[JBnorthTX]

So what's up with the snub of lariat hybrids without lux? Consistent theme for past two months. I specifically switched a while back from xlt lux to lariat no-lux because of constraints (SIBL). Ugh. Can't win. Did only 10% of the lariat customers get no-lux?

I've been wondering, too, since I made the same change. I figure non Lux probably are a fairly low % of Lariat orders, but I doubt it's only 10%!

 

[JBnorthTX]

I’m fairly new to this forum, just trying to understand. Is this scheduling in general or just the US? I’m in Canada and ordered my XLT in December.

It's limited to whoever posted in this forum that their order was scheduled for a build date. The threads are posted on thursdays, when the scheduling emails are sent out. I know Canadan customers don't receive emails from Ford, but I have occasionally seen Canadians post that they were notified by their dealer.

 

[Hoagus]

Ford sold 6513 Mavericks in January 2023 and 25880 in all of 2022. January 2023 was their highest production month so far. They are at a rate of over 60,000 vehicles before they switch to 2023 YM.

I think January sales were high because of all the prebuilt hybrids reaching dealers after OKTB.

 

[Dadmezz]

I also thank you for crunching the trend numbers.
I'm a Nov3 XL hybrid low options order and am happy to see that October has a few scheduled dates.
Hopefully November may sneak in there next update with a count soon and one may be mine.

 

[Delzona]

The gradual move since December to schedule less June and July hybrid orders and more August orders suggests something is holding up many of the remaining June and July orders. Generally, they have been moving chronologically, as we first saw only early August orders, then later August, and finally some early September orders on 2/17. There were a couple October hybrid orders scheduled, which I think surprised everyone that saw those posts.

I agree there were a lot of 1st Editions but I didn't separate them when I recorded the trim data. The thought did cross my mind, but it was after I was well into it.

I'm going to say that those June and July orders probably have the Lux package with SIBL, which is still a constraint if I'm not mistaken. There's been a suggestion to switch to Lux package with DIBL which I did a month ago, but still no love from Ford! I know a lot of what I saw that got scheduled did have SIBL so who knows, well actually Ford knows, but they're not talking

 

[Naranjita]

I've been wondering, too, since I made the same change. I figure non Lux probably are a fairly low % of Lariat orders, but I doubt it's only 10%!

I remember a post that concluded based on surveys that a big majority of Lariat orders included Lux Package. Like 5:1. But I couldn't find it just now searching. And I think I recall that many of our Lariat owners without Lux were dealer purchased and not retail ordered that way.

Most people who wanted top of the line Maverick, didn't stop at Lariat Poverty edition. I know that's the case with me. If I wasn't going all the way, I would have just done XLT.

 

[JBnorthTX]

I remember a post that concluded based on surveys that a big majority of Lariat orders included Lux Package. Like 5:1. But I couldn't find it just now searching. And I think I recall that many of our Lariat owners without Lux were dealer purchased and not retail ordered that way.

Most people who wanted top of the line Maverick, didn't stop at Lariat Poverty edition. I know that's the case with me. If I wasn't going all the way, I would have just done XLT.

I suppose the typical Lariat buyer did go for the Lux package. Ford and their dealers love those customers! I'm probably atypical since I started out with the XLT Lux but switched to Lariat mainly for the seats and to drop the spray in bed liner. If Lariat non Lux is poverty edition what do you call the XL?

 

[Naranjita]

I suppose the typical Lariat buyer did go for the Lux package. Ford and their dealers love those customers! I'm probably atypical since I started out with the XLT Lux but switched to Lariat mainly for the seats and to drop the spray in bed liner. If Lariat non Lux is poverty edition what do you call the XL?

Yeah, Poverty Edition is not my nomenclature. I lifted it from others referring to non Lux XLT and Lariats as 'Poverty Edition' or just Poverty. Kinda catchy though. No judgment here. I love all Mavericks!

 

[mistere213]

I remember a post that concluded based on surveys that a big majority of Lariat orders included Lux Package. Like 5:1. But I couldn't find it just now searching. And I think I recall that many of our Lariat owners without Lux were dealer purchased and not retail ordered that way.

Most people who wanted top of the line Maverick, didn't stop at Lariat Poverty edition. I know that's the case with me. If I wasn't going all the way, I would have just done XLT.

Same for me. I was torn between XLT and Lariat Lux. There simply was no Lariat without the lux pkg in my mind.

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