Unlikely Scenario for MY22 Fulfillment of All Chapman Horsham Orders...

[theway-yay-ting]

So just now I got a schedule e-mail!! My original hybrid order was Aug 2nd but I switched to Ecoboost on Sept 27. Lux and 360 packages included. I'm not sure if I was a March allocation?

Edit: Scheduled for production the week of May 2.

Congrats! Did you get the email from your dealer or from Ford?

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[Sv_real51]

Congrats! Did you get the email from your dealer or from Ford?

I got the email from Ford. Haven't heard from Champan yet but I'll probably email them today to start the buying process. I'm also having it drop shipped to Arizona.

 

[yakefu]

I got the email from Ford. Haven't heard from Champan yet but I'll probably email them today to start the buying process. I'm also having it drop shipped to Arizona.

Congrats! Please share the buying process, price protection, and CD experience. Hope you get the delivery soon.

 

[theway-yay-ting]

I got the email from Ford. Haven't heard from Champan yet but I'll probably email them today to start the buying process. I'm also having it drop shipped to Arizona.

What was the date of the email? From everything we’d heard of late, Ford was no longer directly emailing customers until there was a build DAY (as opposed to the old “scheduled for production the week of …”).
What did the email say?

 

[troynm]

Like your Alfred E Neuman avatar!

 

[Sv_real51]

What was the date of the email? From everything we’d heard of late, Ford was no longer directly emailing customers until there was a build DAY (as opposed to the old “scheduled for production the week of …”).
What did the email say?

Here's the email, received Friday April 8. Definitely says "week of". I have a VIN number as well.

 

[Sv_real51]

Congrats! Please share the buying process, price protection, and CD experience. Hope you get the delivery soon.

Will do!

 

[theway-yay-ting]

Here's the email, received Friday April 8. Definitely says "week of". I have a VIN number as well.

Wow, that’s really interesting! Although since the week of 2 May is relatively soon (I.e, not 5/16 or 5/23, which was supposedly the weeks they were scheduling for this past week) maybe this is the actual latter email.

In any case, congrats! Sounds like you should have your Maverick by early June!

 

[theway-yay-ting]

Got the allocation for the "April cycle" from the team at Chapman-Horsham today, and was really dismayed to hear that it was only 29 (after hearing the huge jumps experienced by Granger & Long-McArthur for their April allocations, I was hoping for a similar bump for Chapman).

That being said, I went ahead and recalculated the forecast chart based on some purely arbitrary guesses. I'd previously used 62.5% of a given month's allocations toward hybrids (based on the overall ratio of the remaining unscheduled models at the start of Feb). I kept that same percentage for this month's scheduling allocations (remember, for June production dates).

However, given the repeated mentions of constraints impacting the Hybrid (not to mention Lux, CP-360, etc.), I went ahead and shifted the May-Aug projections to only use 50% of a given month's allocations for Hybrid builds. Even that may be a bit optimistic.

Further uncertainty stems from Ford's statement that they will be scheduling based on FIFO (first in, first out). I suspect (since dealers are still getting allocations from Ford each month), this means that the allocation numbers will be more heavily (perhaps totally?) dependent on the actual dates that orders were placed (rather than the previous weighted sales volume approach, which was yielding a steady ~45 per month for Chapman over the Nov-Feb scheduling timeframe).

Given that March was 28 and April is 29, I went ahead and just assumed a straight-line of 29 allocations per month going forward. I also added August scheduling (for October builds), since @fordvideoguy mentioned Ford would be building MY22 up until 10/21 (MY23 production starts on 10/24). As you can see, even with the extra month, this would leave a lot (59) of us (late orders for sure, but also some earlier orders if the constraints don't get any better between now & end of summer) disappointed.

Allocations

Unscheduled (as of EOM)

Month	Total	Hybrid	Gas	Total	Hybrid	Gas
Jan	43	(not sure on these)	(not sure on these)	272	170	102
Feb	45	28 41	17 4*	227 233	142129	85104
Mar	28	19	9	204*	110	94
Apr	29	18	11	175	92	83
May	29	15	14	146	77	69
Jun	29	15	14	117	62	55
Jul	29	15	14	88	47	41
Aug	29	15	14	59	32	27

* Based on the previous EOM numbers, if 28 were scheduled in March, the total remaining unscheduled should have been 205, but the number I got from Ashlie at that time was 204. Not sure if a typo, but I just bumped the EOM Mar unscheduled EB number down one (to 94) for now.

However, all is not lost. If the allocation number is indeed driven purely by order date now, we may just be seeing the result of a lull between the early Jun/Jul/Aug orders and the later ones. I know that @Dealerinsider started several 3%-4% under invoice promotions, which surely spurred a lot of buyers to make orders (it sold me!). I know that by late October I was able to order mine, and then the 15 Nov cutoff came for Hybrids, so I'd assume there would be a big spike in orders toward the tail end. I'd expect a similar spike in EB orders right around the 27 Jan cutoff date.

So mayyyyybeeeee, we'll see a jump in scheduling allocations in June (for Aug builds) due to a flurry of sales to the late order hybrid people, and then another EB jump in Aug (for Oct builds) due to the last-minute rush on EB orders. If that were the case, maybe something like this could happen:

Allocations

Unscheduled (as of EOM)

Month	Total	Hybrid	Gas	Total	Hybrid	Gas
Jan	43	(not sure on these)	(not sure on these)	272	170	102
Feb	45	28 41	17 4*	227 233	142129	85104
Mar	28	19	9	204*	110	94
Apr	29	18	11	175	92	83
May	29	15	14	146	77	69
Jun	50	25	25	96	52	44
Jul	29	15	14	67	37	30
Aug	59	29	30	8	8	0

Without data on the distribution of order dates, as well as how many of the earlier orders are still unscheduled due to commodity constraints, this whole exercise is a little silly. Sure, the second chart is probably pretty unlikely and totally disregards remaining constraint issues. But I gotta have something to hope for...

 

[Yar]

@theway-yay-ting Thanks for this week's update. I'm hoping that Ashlie gave you this week's Previews rather than the entire month's allocations. I just don't understand how Chapman's allocation can only be 29 when Long McArthur's is 85. I get there are regional considerations and Chapman has to compete with the NorthEast region's large dealers in places like NYC, DC, etc., but ...pleeease... Chapman has the numbers to compete. Just typing this to keep my sanity...this waiting is very exhausting.

 

[theway-yay-ting]

@theway-yay-ting Thanks for this week's update. I'm hoping that Ashlie gave you this week's Previews rather than the entire month's allocations. I just don't understand how Chapman's allocation can only be 29 when Long McArthur's is 85. I get there are regional considerations and Chapman has to compete with the NorthEast region's large dealers in places like NYC, DC, etc., but ...pleeease... Chapman has the numbers to compete. Just typing this to keep my sanity...this waiting is very exhausting.

I confirmed with her (because I shared the same disbelief), 29 is for the entire month. Previewing as of yesterday were 10 hybrid and 7 EB.

Looking at the order details in your signature, you should be getting scheduled this month. On the other hand, I'm pretty resigned to the fact that unless Ford finds a lost railcar (or warehouse? LOL) full of constrained chips/modules, I'm very likely gonna get rolled over to MY23.

I was late to the party - had never even heard of the Maverick prior to the late Sept timeframe. Wish I would have gotten my order in sooner...

 

[buyacar]

Disappointed again

 

[Yar]

I confirmed with her (because I shared the same disbelief), 29 is for the entire month. Previewing as of yesterday were 10 hybrid and 7 EB.

Looking at the order details in your signature, you should be getting scheduled this month. On the other hand, I'm pretty resigned to the fact that unless Ford finds a lost railcar (or warehouse? LOL) full of constrained chips/modules, I'm very likely gonna get rolled over to MY23.

I was late to the party - had never even heard of the Maverick prior to the late Sept timeframe. Wish I would have gotten my order in sooner...

Thanks for confirming. That is sad. Someone at Ford needs to give Chapman some love.

@Dealerinsider

 

[Maverick2023]

And yet Ford somehow finds enough chips to build those stupid F150 lightning.

 

[Nw_adventure]

Here's the email, received Friday April 8. Definitely says "week of". I have a VIN number as well.

Lots of us received 5/2 build weeks- Looks like they are full throttle down in Hermosillo

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