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(Full disclosure: I have a 10/26 order with Chapman-Horsham, no build date yet, and thus a vested interest in this subject...)
(Also - gonna edit this original post periodically when predictions are right
or wrong...)
Let me start by saying that Chapman-Horsham has been awesome throughout the order process, and @Dealerinsider has been great about posting updates here about their ongoing allocations, scheduled vs. unscheduled, etc. They've additionally answered all my pesky emails along the way. I've heard nothing but great things from others who've already picked up their Mavericks from these guys, so I'm looking forward to eventually driving up there from Northern VA to pick up mine when my time comes!
How long will Ford keep producing the MY22 Mavs? This post from last night gives us the answer - production on MY22 will have to wrap up by late Sept or early Oct so that MY23 production can start in late Oct.
In watching the allocations, it seems that Horsham has received a remarkably consistent number; they got 89 for Nov-Dec (basically 44.5 per month), 43 for Jan, and 45 for Feb. I'm going to round up a little & go with 45 per month - and use that for the rest of the MY22 production year (call me an optimist...)
After January's allocations had been scheduled, Tom posted that they had 272 remaining unscheduled - 170 Hybrid (62.5%) and 102 Gas (37.5%). These numbers track pretty closely to the overall Ford-wide order numbers reported elsewhere (I think by @fordvideoguy) of an approximate 60%/40% hybrid/gas split.
It appears the scheduling rhythm is running with about a 2-month lag:
After the 45 Feb allocations are scheduled, at the end of month (EOM), Chapman Horsham will have 227 unscheduled Mavericks left. Let's assume that the breakdown of how many hybrids vs. gas they get scheduled each month follows their 62.5%/37.5% hybrid/gas split. It seems plausible, as this would allow Ford to be producing each month at close to the overall 60%/40% hybrid/gas split, thus reducing the whole pool evenly as they wind down the MY22 builds.
So let's say that Chapman-Horsham is going to get the same average allocations (45) for the months of March, April, May, June, & July. Based on the 62.5%/37.5% split, the monthly breakdown would come out to 28 Hybrid allocations, and 17 gas allocations. The full breakdown would look like this:
* Ecoboost number went up from 102 after Tom's 21 Jan post (linked above), due to additional EB orders prior to the 27 Jan order cutoff.
# As of 2/24/22, still 2 remaining Feb allocations, so one or both of these numbers will change at actual EOM (Updated with EOM actuals on 3/8/22)
As noted in the build schedule estimate above, by the end of July's allocations, Ford would be sending out the very last "production scheduled" emails, for production taking place in very late September or early October, prior to the switchover to MY23. Those last 2 remaining unscheduled could probably be absorbed somewhere along the line, as this is all just assuming a constant average anyway, both in allocations & production volume (and parts availability!).
@fordvideoguy - Tim, I'd be interested to hear the breakdown on your remaining unscheduled as well as your allocations, to better understand if yours are tracking on a similar path.
Anyway, this exercise gave the spreadsheet geek in me something to play around with while I wait for a build date. I know I'm near the last 20% or so, given my late order date, so following this, I may very well not see a "production scheduled" email until June (which would mean late Aug/early Sep build date, and early-mid Oct for me to actually get the truck). As the famous philosopher Monty Burns once said...
(Also - gonna edit this original post periodically when predictions are right
or Let me start by saying that Chapman-Horsham has been awesome throughout the order process, and @Dealerinsider has been great about posting updates here about their ongoing allocations, scheduled vs. unscheduled, etc. They've additionally answered all my pesky emails along the way. I've heard nothing but great things from others who've already picked up their Mavericks from these guys, so I'm looking forward to eventually driving up there from Northern VA to pick up mine when my time comes!
How long will Ford keep producing the MY22 Mavs? This post from last night gives us the answer - production on MY22 will have to wrap up by late Sept or early Oct so that MY23 production can start in late Oct.
In watching the allocations, it seems that Horsham has received a remarkably consistent number; they got 89 for Nov-Dec (basically 44.5 per month), 43 for Jan, and 45 for Feb. I'm going to round up a little & go with 45 per month - and use that for the rest of the MY22 production year (call me an optimist...)
After January's allocations had been scheduled, Tom posted that they had 272 remaining unscheduled - 170 Hybrid (62.5%) and 102 Gas (37.5%). These numbers track pretty closely to the overall Ford-wide order numbers reported elsewhere (I think by @fordvideoguy) of an approximate 60%/40% hybrid/gas split.
It appears the scheduling rhythm is running with about a 2-month lag:
- Week of 1/17, they were scheduling builds for the week of 3/14
- Week of 1/24, builds for week of 3/21
- Week of 2/7, week of 4/4 or 4/11 (we'll just use 4/11)
| Scheduling Email Week ("week of") | Build Week ("week of") |
|---|---|
| 14 Feb | 18 Apr |
| 28 Feb | |
| 14 Mar | 16 May |
| 21 Mar | 23 May |
| 28 Mar | 30 May |
| 4 Apr | 6 Jun |
| 11 Apr | 13 Jun |
| 18 Apr | 20 Jun |
| 25 Apr | 27 Jun |
| 2 May | 4 Jul |
| 9 May | 11 Jul |
| 16 May | 18 Jul |
| 23 May | 25 Jul |
| 30 May | 1 Aug |
| 6 Jun | 8 Aug |
| 13 Jun | 15 Aug |
| 20 Jun | 22 Aug |
| 27 Jun | 29 Aug |
| 4 Jul | 5 Sep |
| 11 Jul | 12 Sep |
| 18 Jul | 19 Sep |
| 25 Jul | 26 Sep |
| 1 Aug | 3 Oct |
After the 45 Feb allocations are scheduled, at the end of month (EOM), Chapman Horsham will have 227 unscheduled Mavericks left. Let's assume that the breakdown of how many hybrids vs. gas they get scheduled each month follows their 62.5%/37.5% hybrid/gas split. It seems plausible, as this would allow Ford to be producing each month at close to the overall 60%/40% hybrid/gas split, thus reducing the whole pool evenly as they wind down the MY22 builds.
So let's say that Chapman-Horsham is going to get the same average allocations (45) for the months of March, April, May, June, & July. Based on the 62.5%/37.5% split, the monthly breakdown would come out to 28 Hybrid allocations, and 17 gas allocations. The full breakdown would look like this:
Allocations | Unscheduled (as of EOM) |
| Month | Total | Hybrid | Gas | Total | Hybrid | Gas |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 43 | (not sure on these) | (not sure on these) | 272 | 170 | 102 |
| Feb | 45 | | | | | |
| Mar | 45 | 28 | 17 | 182 | 114 | 68 |
| Apr | 45 | 28 | 17 | 137 | 86 | 51 |
| May | 45 | 28 | 17 | 92 | 58 | 34 |
| Jun | 45 | 28 | 17 | 47 | 30 | 17 |
| Jul | 45 | 28 | 17 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
As noted in the build schedule estimate above, by the end of July's allocations, Ford would be sending out the very last "production scheduled" emails, for production taking place in very late September or early October, prior to the switchover to MY23. Those last 2 remaining unscheduled could probably be absorbed somewhere along the line, as this is all just assuming a constant average anyway, both in allocations & production volume (and parts availability!).
@fordvideoguy - Tim, I'd be interested to hear the breakdown on your remaining unscheduled as well as your allocations, to better understand if yours are tracking on a similar path.
Anyway, this exercise gave the spreadsheet geek in me something to play around with while I wait for a build date. I know I'm near the last 20% or so, given my late order date, so following this, I may very well not see a "production scheduled" email until June (which would mean late Aug/early Sep build date, and early-mid Oct for me to actually get the truck). As the famous philosopher Monty Burns once said...
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