Are Hybrids a Constraint Anymore?

[dusty1787]

Hello all!

Just wanted to post a quick question based on the trend I was seeing with yesterdays (1/26/23) emails received post about who and what vehicles were picked. I understand that only Ford knows the issues and numbers/stats/etc, but there appeared to be a ton of Hybrids picked than at any time in the past. From the start Ford made it clear that they only intended to build X Hybrids, yet blew that out of the water and that due to that, hybrids would be a constraint issue and to "change to an EB if you want vehicle this year"...etc. Yet with the many pages of posts on the emailed received 1/26/2023 post yesterday, it appeared that a vast majority of them were all Hybrid orders. Now I completely understand not every person who ordered a Maverick has an account on MTC so it is possible all the others were EB orders, but otherwise, was I the only one that found it odd at the volume of Hybrid vehicles picked yesterday?

That was what pushed me to post/ask this question. Has there been any updates or rumors that Ford has made a ton more hybrid motors/parts over the past months of delay to the point where they are building them at a faster pace now? Or maybe they just got a fresh shipment of hybrid motors in that week and put them right on assembly line that second?

I went into my EB 23' New Order, knowing all of the wait times/constraint/supply chain issues...etc... knowing that I would be waiting some time before it would get built (and from the start I was expecting around May, and anytime after that I would start to get antsy) and I am not keeping my hopes up on any weekly Thursday email until around May, but these weekly posts have normally favored EB (unless it was Hybrid only scheduling) of which seeing the onesidedness of yesterdays post, made me want to reach out to see if anyone has heard anything.

I assume its completely up in the air, nobody knows, Ford Ordering is a mythical creature that nobody has any idea about...etc... but it doesnt hurt to ask f anyone else thought it was odd the sheer number of Hybrids picked yesterday and why that could be.

Thanks all!

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[Jackovalltrades]

You have a legit question at this point that has my head scratching. Tommy Brogan posts scheduling information weekly which listed FHEV as a key constraint for some time. We haven't seen that included lately and everybody just assumes it was an oversight, understood given that Ford allowed the change from Hybrid to Ecoboost. With all of the Hybrid scheduling and now multiple weeks with FHEV missing as key constraint under Additional Notes... could it be that Hybrids really are no longer a constraint?

 

[burger_time]

Yeah we don't know. A couple of weeks now they haven't listed it as a specific constraint whereas they have in the past. They still keep on saying they plan to build 65% EB and 35% Hybrid but it's unclear whether that's still their plan or they just don't bother updating that info. Tons of hybrids got scheduled yesterday. It could be a good sign or maybe they're just getting them all out of the way now and then they'll be back to mostly EB for awhile.

 

[Maverick Life]

One contributing factor could be that ever since the 65/35 EB/hybrid allocation was contrasted with the 28/72 EB/hybrid actual order volume, the order holding customers have had very different behaviors towards weekly emails based on the powertrain they ordered.

If you're holding an EB order you're not worried to much, not following things as closely, not as surprised when your order gets scheduled, etc. On the other hand, if you're holding an order for a hybrid you're watching the scheduling process like a hawk and you probably feel like you won the lottery if you get scheduled. Seems to me the hybrid order holders would be more likely to post updates which might help explain the perception that more are getting scheduled.

I doubt Ford was able to do a major pivot in their supply chain so quickly and while some orders probably switched from hybrid to EB I don't think it happened in droves.

 

[Sirk]

Ford is still trying to push out the backlog of unproduced '22 orders, the vast majority of which were hybrid orders. They still have not completed that mission, based on the posts from '22 order holders who are still waiting for a VIN. I wouldn't make any assumptions based on the recent spate of hybrid orders produced. I suspect the production ratios will settle down to the numbers Ford previously released within a couple of months.

 

[Automate]

You have a legit question at this point that has my head scratching. Tommy Brogan posts scheduling information weekly which listed FHEV as a key constraint for some time. We haven't seen that included lately and everybody just assumes it was an oversight, understood given that Ford allowed the change from Hybrid to Ecoboost. With all of the Hybrid scheduling and now multiple weeks with FHEV missing as key constraint under Additional Notes... could it be that Hybrids really are no longer a constraint?

This list from 1/23 still show Hybrid constraint https://www.mavericktruckclub.com/f...mmodity-constraints-list-as-of-1-23-23.26657/

 

[TCPTX65]

Trim and accessories are also influencing what trucks are being picked for scheduling. Ford makes more money on a Lariat w/ Lux package than on an XL with no add-ons. When you look at the hybrids that were scheduled, they all seemed to be XLTs and Lariats w/ plenty of add-ons. More money for Ford to report to the stockholders for the first quarter of the year.

 

[AznMav]

They also didn't schedule many hybrids up until yesterday which they needed to do if they wanted to clear out the backlog of roll over 22's

 

[Milqueman]

From what I understand, the Hybrid was never "Constrained" Per Se.. Rather it was a self imposed restriction by Ford themselves.

When Ford initially introduced the Maverick as a "Compact" pickup truck, there was no market for it. Trucks have been getting bigger and bigger every year. What used to be a Compact truck in the 90's, for example the Ford Ranger, Toyota Pickup Truck (which is now the Tacoma), Chevy S-10 and Colorado, etc... is now a mid sized truck. Full sized trucks in the 90's were smaller then Mid Sized trucks today. Today's Ranger is bigger then a 90's F150. There hasn't been a true "Compact" truck in 20 years, and since people kept buying bigger and bigger trucks, I feel there was a sense from all manufactures that there was no demand for a "Compact" truck... so why build one?

Well, Ford built one, not knowing what the demand would be. Most truck owners, through demand analysis of market sales, want POWER and TOWING capacity, and trucks have been marketed for that. So, not only did Ford introduce a Compact Truck, but a HYBRID one!! That goes against every market evaluation that has happened for the last 20 years. I bet Ford thought, "there's no way there's going to be a strong demand for a Hybrid Compact truck". I mean, how would they know, there hasn't been a Compact Truck, much less a Hybrid one, on the market for decades, there was no data to let them know otherwise. Ford grossly under estimated the demand for the Maverick.

So.. That's leads me back to my original statement, I feel Ford put a self imposed restriction on 35% Hybrids, as they probably felt there wouldn't be a strong demand for them in a truck. As a result, they probably only set up there manufacturing process to procure only a limited number of the parts needed to make Hybrids.

Know that they know there is a strong demand for them, I feel they have contacted their suppliers and have them produce more Hybrid components. This is supported by the fact that they are hiring more people to not only add a 3rd shift to the plant, but also add employees to their suppliers. As noted in this thread:

https://www.mavericktruckclub.com/f...k-assembly-at-hermosillo-plant-in-july.26480/

In the end, I feel they may have had a supply of Hybrid components recently delivered and that resulted in a large selection of Hybrids being scheduled this time around. There will still be more EB's built in total, and future scheduling emails will reflect this, but for now, they're getting to the Hybrids as they have the parts to do so.

All of this is just my opinion, which is worthless.

 

[Jackovalltrades]

This list from 1/23 still show Hybrid constraint https://www.mavericktruckclub.com/forum/threads/-updated-commodity-constraints-list-as-of-1-23-23.26657/

Yup, was referring to this where previously FHEV would be listed week after week

Versus last several weeks

 

[KevCuRaoi]

Yup, was referring to this where previously FHEV would be listed week after week

Versus last several weeks

They are trying to schedule as many of the rollover hybrids as possible.
It is possible that they have a decent "stockpile" of hybrid components, and are aiming to scheduling many hybrids in a certain week - but that won't change the overall hybrid mix.

Let's say that can schedule 2,000 Mavericks in week 10. They have components for 1500 hybrids. Hybrids aren't constrained that week....but the the next week they many only have the parts for 250 hybrids, so FHEV would be constrained that week.

 

[commadorebob]

I don't think we can judge anything based on yesterday other than Ford scheduled hybrids when they said they would do cleanup. Potato, potato? Who knows.

Next week, Ford will have another chance to do scheduling as I don't know if March filled up yesterday. Also, we might we some January production numbers late in the week that could give us an indication of where things are at.

 

[Raymundo76]

From what I understand, the Hybrid was never "Constrained" Per Se.. Rather it was a self imposed restriction by Ford themselves.

When Ford initially introduced the Maverick as a "Compact" pickup truck, there was no market for it. Trucks have been getting bigger and bigger every year. What used to be a Compact truck in the 90's, for example the Ford Ranger, Toyota Pickup Truck (which is now the Tacoma), Chevy S-10 and Colorado, etc... is now a mid sized truck. Full sized trucks in the 90's were smaller then Mid Sized trucks today. Today's Ranger is bigger then a 90's F150. There hasn't been a true "Compact" truck in 20 years, and since people kept buying bigger and bigger trucks, I feel there was a sense from all manufactures that there was no demand for a "Compact" truck... so why build one?

Well, Ford built one, not knowing what the demand would be. Most truck owners, through demand analysis of market sales, want POWER and TOWING capacity, and trucks have been marketed for that. So, not only did Ford introduce a Compact Truck, but a HYBRID one!! That goes against every market evaluation that has happened for the last 20 years. I bet Ford thought, "there's no way there's going to be a strong demand for a Hybrid Compact truck". I mean, how would they know, there hasn't been a Compact Truck, much less a Hybrid one, on the market for decades, there was no data to let them know otherwise. Ford grossly under estimated the demand for the Maverick.

So.. That's leads me back to my original statement, I feel Ford put a self imposed restriction on 35% Hybrids, as they probably felt there wouldn't be a strong demand for them in a truck. As a result, they probably only set up there manufacturing process to procure only a limited number of the parts needed to make Hybrids.

Know that they know there is a strong demand for them, I feel they have contacted their suppliers and have them produce more Hybrid components. This is supported by the fact that they are hiring more people to not only add a 3rd shift to the plant, but also add employees to their suppliers. As noted in this thread:

https://www.mavericktruckclub.com/f...k-assembly-at-hermosillo-plant-in-july.26480/

In the end, I feel they may have had a supply of Hybrid components recently delivered and that resulted in a large selection of Hybrids being scheduled this time around. There will still be more EB's built in total, and future scheduling emails will reflect this, but for now, they're getting to the Hybrids as they have the parts to do so.

All of this is just my opinion, which is worthless.

Where is my lamp; I found an honest man!!

 

[stopgowalkon]

Will be interesting to see what happens to pricing for the hybrids now in dealership lots. If you're on the hunt for a hybrid, it feels like the highest ADMs are behind us, and in 3 months or so, you might be in position to score a better price than you locked in with your order. Maybe..

 

[LSchicago]

From what I understand, the Hybrid was never "Constrained" Per Se.. Rather it was a self imposed restriction by Ford themselves.

When Ford initially introduced the Maverick as a "Compact" pickup truck, there was no market for it. Trucks have been getting bigger and bigger every year. What used to be a Compact truck in the 90's, for example the Ford Ranger, Toyota Pickup Truck (which is now the Tacoma), Chevy S-10 and Colorado, etc... is now a mid sized truck. Full sized trucks in the 90's were smaller then Mid Sized trucks today. Today's Ranger is bigger then a 90's F150. There hasn't been a true "Compact" truck in 20 years, and since people kept buying bigger and bigger trucks, I feel there was a sense from all manufactures that there was no demand for a "Compact" truck... so why build one?

Well, Ford built one, not knowing what the demand would be. Most truck owners, through demand analysis of market sales, want POWER and TOWING capacity, and trucks have been marketed for that. So, not only did Ford introduce a Compact Truck, but a HYBRID one!! That goes against every market evaluation that has happened for the last 20 years. I bet Ford thought, "there's no way there's going to be a strong demand for a Hybrid Compact truck". I mean, how would they know, there hasn't been a Compact Truck, much less a Hybrid one, on the market for decades, there was no data to let them know otherwise. Ford grossly under estimated the demand for the Maverick.

So.. That's leads me back to my original statement, I feel Ford put a self imposed restriction on 35% Hybrids, as they probably felt there wouldn't be a strong demand for them in a truck. As a result, they probably only set up there manufacturing process to procure only a limited number of the parts needed to make Hybrids.

Know that they know there is a strong demand for them, I feel they have contacted their suppliers and have them produce more Hybrid components. This is supported by the fact that they are hiring more people to not only add a 3rd shift to the plant, but also add employees to their suppliers. As noted in this thread:

https://www.mavericktruckclub.com/f...k-assembly-at-hermosillo-plant-in-july.26480/

In the end, I feel they may have had a supply of Hybrid components recently delivered and that resulted in a large selection of Hybrids being scheduled this time around. There will still be more EB's built in total, and future scheduling emails will reflect this, but for now, they're getting to the Hybrids as they have the parts to do so.

All of this is just my opinion, which is worthless.

It just goes to show how wrong all that research was. People have been wanting a new compact truck since before the 2011 Ranger left production. Instead of updating it with a complete new design, they kept selling the old 93 design with just minor updates. Ford let it die.

People still want the original size Ranger back. A regular cab with a longer bed. I myself would rather have the Maverick in a 2 door long bed. But we all know Ford won't do it. They could build a small 2 door single cab EV pickup though. That could make a lot of sense, and be light enough to help with range anxiety.

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