Some dealers just don't want the Maverick

[Captain]

In today's market definitely a low bid but I am not at all surprised. In "normal times", $18k would be a legitimate offer for a "lightly used" vehicle with a roughly $25k MSRP. The wholesale used car market is already down by roughly 10% since June and values are dropping by about 1% a WEEK. Only about half of the cars at wholesale auctions are actually being sold (i.e., no-sales) since wholesale buyers are not willing to pay what sellers are willing to take. Dealers are sitting on a lot of inventory they over-paid for (and are losing money on every day due to increasing interest payments). At some point in the near future (next 30-60 days?) a lot of this inventory "must" get sold (the banks are starting to force the dealers to sell). Add to that all the repos (3x+ what they were last year) and you should have a lot of vehicles hitting the market to drasticaly increase supply. More importantly, the number of buyers is supposedly WAY down due to rising interest rates. [per Black Book]

If I were a dealer, I would be throwing out low bids as well. Basic hope is to catch someone that is about to be repo'd and willing to deal. The problem is that most of those that are being repo'd probably paid way over MSRP and thus no way to get whole [many banks were doing lones at up to 140% of MSRP]. In that situation, then the dealer will just wait until the unit shows up at auction and buy it for way under MSRP (with the bank taking the loss).

On top of that, everyone is watching Carvana very carefully. Very real possibility of them going bankrupt at some point in 2023. They are sitting on a ton of over-priced inventory that would absolutely flood the used car market for at least a short period of time. I find it absolutely amazing that they are still willing to pay over MSRP (and at least at the Carvana near me, they are over-flowing with used cars).

If the trend continues, I fully expect that most "lightly used" cars will be back under MSRP by early next Spring (even the "in-demand" models). I am keeping my fingers cross that the used car market will be back to "normal" by next Summer. Anyone buying a Maverick (especially the Eco) with the idea of flipping it is likely to be disappointed. If someone is trying to sell a used car, now is the time. It will likely be worth less next week than it is this week.

My sentiments exactly.

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[AutobahnSHO]

In today's market definitely a low bid but I am not at all surprised. In "normal times", $18k would be a legitimate offer for a "lightly used" vehicle with a roughly $25k MSRP. The wholesale used car market is already down by roughly 10% since June and values are dropping by about 1% a WEEK. Only about half of the cars at wholesale auctions are actually being sold (i.e., no-sales) since wholesale buyers are not willing to pay what sellers are willing to take. Dealers are sitting on a lot of inventory they over-paid for (and are losing money on every day due to increasing interest payments). At some point in the near future (next 30-60 days?) a lot of this inventory "must" get sold (the banks are starting to force the dealers to sell). Add to that all the repos (3x+ what they were last year) and you should have a lot of vehicles hitting the market to drasticaly increase supply. More importantly, the number of buyers is supposedly WAY down due to rising interest rates. [per Black Book]

If I were a dealer, I would be throwing out low bids as well. Basic hope is to catch someone that is about to be repo'd and willing to deal. The problem is that most of those that are being repo'd probably paid way over MSRP and thus no way to get whole [many banks were doing lones at up to 140% of MSRP]. In that situation, then the dealer will just wait until the unit shows up at auction and buy it for way under MSRP (with the bank taking the loss).

On top of that, everyone is watching Carvana very carefully. Very real possibility of them going bankrupt at some point in 2023. They are sitting on a ton of over-priced inventory that would absolutely flood the used car market for at least a short period of time. I find it absolutely amazing that they are still willing to pay over MSRP (and at least at the Carvana near me, they are over-flowing with used cars).

If the trend continues, I fully expect that most "lightly used" cars will be back under MSRP by early next Spring (even the "in-demand" models). I am keeping my fingers cross that the used car market will be back to "normal" by next Summer. Anyone buying a Maverick (especially the Eco) with the idea of flipping it is likely to be disappointed. If someone is trying to sell a used car, now is the time. It will likely be worth less next week than it is this week.

I don't think the market will correct that fast. But on the whole, I agree with your last paragraph. But too many people have high hopes....

 

[kkgg]

regular vehicles
low mileage
25k - 30k price range

will always hold their value, no matter the market.

 

[1929]

Carvana has never earned a profit in its years as a publicly traded company. On the contrary, it lost $619 million over the past 12 months and reported $2.7 billion in negative free cash flow. If it keeps losing money at this rate, it will burn through its $1.4 billion in cash reserves in just a little over six months -- and will still have $8.6 billion in total debt to contend with.

 

[commadorebob]

regular vehicles
low mileage
25k - 30k price range

will always hold their value, no matter the market.

Supply and demand still wins. If supply starts to outstrip demand, prices will fall. Doesn't matter what the mileage is. But it will take a while for the market to get to that point and recover from shutting down supply for the pandemic. Too many people put off vehicle replacement and are simply in need of one. That keeps the demand high despite interest rates.

 

[1929]

regular vehicles
low mileage
25k - 30k price range

will always hold their value, no matter the market.

No they will not. Market right now is a bubble. Bubble will NOT last.
Depreciation is highest in first 24 months.
Vehicle values stabilize when vehicles are older.

 

[Dbarr]

I'll match.

$20k cash

 

[kkgg]

Supply and demand still wins. If supply starts to outstrip demand, prices will fall. Doesn't matter what the mileage is. But it will take a while for the market to get to that point and recover from shutting down supply for the pandemic. Too many people put off vehicle replacement and are simply in need of one. That keeps the demand high despite interest rates.

Supply is not outstriping demand any time soon, It will take years. But for now inflation is playing the show.

People need reliable affordable cars no matter.

 

[yb98]

Try algonation they usually have the best offers IME

 

[bearsfan647]

I’ve been saying this on Reddit and have been getting beaten up lol.

Values dropping fast. This is exactly why I walked away from an Area 51 hybrid xlt lux . Hate the color and couldn’t flip it

My question is why did you order two identical Mavericks?

 

[Mikeetch]

Carvana just offered me $13,160 for my 2016 Mini Cooper S that has 75k miles

 

[TexasHybrid]

Carvana has never earned a profit in its years as a publicly traded company. On the contrary, it lost $619 million over the past 12 months and reported $2.7 billion in negative free cash flow. If it keeps losing money at this rate, it will burn through its $1.4 billion in cash reserves in just a little over six months -- and will still have $8.6 billion in total debt to contend with.

Carvana has the markings of a soon to be defunct company, think Circuit City. I see too many good business sources on this.

I agree that used car prices look to have a likely strong drop in overall prices; Interest Rates, increasing supply as buyers who can buy are decreasing. The subprime buyers are about to crater.

On my eyes on the ground, I see many recovery vehicles carrying late model vehicles; which I speculate are repos.

How this will translate to a Maverick Hybrid, I don't know. The Maverick Hybrid is presently one of a kind and in short supply.

 

[Gmood1]

In my area neither the hybrid nor 2.0 is readily available. And if they are, the price for either is insane!
I performed a 100 mile search. There are 41 available per the Ford site. But when you go to the dealers, most of these vehicles are in transit.

 

[Deleted member 19038]

I have to share this.
After 440 days waiting my 2nd (identical) Maverick arrived and I checked the price for my older 3K mile "basic" XLT Hybrid Lux 360 with rear sliding window area 51 and.......$17,951!
are you kidding me?
I am almost tempted to accept it, to just look in the eyes (or receive the call) from whoever is going to close the deal...

View attachment 73083

or sell it to me for MSRP

 

[Edrobyn]

In today's market definitely a low bid but I am not at all surprised. In "normal times", $18k would be a legitimate offer for a "lightly used" vehicle with a roughly $25k MSRP. The wholesale used car market is already down by roughly 10% since June and values are dropping by about 1% a WEEK. Only about half of the cars at wholesale auctions are actually being sold (i.e., no-sales) since wholesale buyers are not willing to pay what sellers are willing to take. Dealers are sitting on a lot of inventory they over-paid for (and are losing money on every day due to increasing interest payments). At some point in the near future (next 30-60 days?) a lot of this inventory "must" get sold (the banks are starting to force the dealers to sell). Add to that all the repos (3x+ what they were last year) and you should have a lot of vehicles hitting the market to drasticaly increase supply. More importantly, the number of buyers is supposedly WAY down due to rising interest rates. [per Black Book]

If I were a dealer, I would be throwing out low bids as well. Basic hope is to catch someone that is about to be repo'd and willing to deal. The problem is that most of those that are being repo'd probably paid way over MSRP and thus no way to get whole [many banks were doing lones at up to 140% of MSRP]. In that situation, then the dealer will just wait until the unit shows up at auction and buy it for way under MSRP (with the bank taking the loss).

On top of that, everyone is watching Carvana very carefully. Very real possibility of them going bankrupt at some point in 2023. They are sitting on a ton of over-priced inventory that would absolutely flood the used car market for at least a short period of time. I find it absolutely amazing that they are still willing to pay over MSRP (and at least at the Carvana near me, they are over-flowing with used cars).

If the trend continues, I fully expect that most "lightly used" cars will be back under MSRP by early next Spring (even the "in-demand" models). I am keeping my fingers cross that the used car market will be back to "normal" by next Summer. Anyone buying a Maverick (especially the Eco) with the idea of flipping it is likely to be disappointed. If someone is trying to sell a used car, now is the time. It will likely be worth less next week than it is this week.

If used Maverick’s come down to below MSRP those of us who will probably never get our ordered one may be able to get one.

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