Next gen 2027 Maverick (P778) predicted to come April 2027

[Shay]

My gut tells me that gets punted. Our grid can't handle that right now and I don't think that changes in 12 years.

No. It's not getting punted. Argue if you want about grid, whatever. It's happening. Period.

If you look at the manufacturers product plans going forward, they are building to it already. It's baked in.

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[BuddyS]

No. It's not getting punted. Argue if you want about grid, whatever. It's happening. Period.

If you look at the manufacturers product plans going forward, they are building to it already. It's baked in.

Exactly. Every auto manufacturer on the planet is committed to an almost exclusive BEV future. The train has left the station, so to speak.

 

[710-oil-614]

My gut tells me that gets punted. Our grid can't handle that right now and I don't think that changes in 12 years.

The grid absolutely can handle it right now. It's called load balancing. As charging infrastructure grows and mandates get vetted out the infrastructure is going to include mandatory batteries that trickle charge when not connected to a vehicle so surges are minimal.

Saying our electric grid won't be able to handle EV charging is just another toothless hit job against EVs.

 

[710-oil-614]

Less the grid (because pols don't care if you can't charge them, in fact, all the better) and more about the coming metal wars to build the batteries. Google the price of Lithium, nickel, cobalt and trend it year over year for the last two decades.

Also, let's take Cobalt. Over 50% of the global supply comes from the Democratic Republic of Congo. According to UNICEF, around 40,000 children are involved in cobalt mining in DRC where they make only $1 – $2 USD per day. How long do you think that cheap supply chain will last? In the next ten years, these metals used for BEVs will probably increase at least twenty fold from where they are now. So, we will be where we are now, which is a place where only the affluent can afford a BEV.

I bought my wife a BEV. It's a Ford Mach-e GT. It's cool, like in party trick cool, but not a $70k vehicle. We paid $68k and change plus tax, etc, which put it at $75k and change out the door. Why so expensive, (see results of Google search on price of metals to make batteries).

Now, in the US, BEVs make up about 4.5% of sales. Ice makes up the rest at just north of 95%. What do you think happens when BEVs make up 30%, 40% or 50%? Here is the deal, an ICE vehicle need only come with a $20 (production cost) tank to hold the fuel. That's it. You need something to put the fuel in. It's simple. OEMs don't care where you get the fuel, how much it cost, etc. It's not germane to the discussion. Now. contrast that with BEV. Each BEV needs a $20k+ battery pack. With ICE vehicles, the more you produce, the cheaper it is. With BEVs, the more you produce, the more expensive it is b/c there's only so much of the metals needed to built the battery pack and as demand outstrips availability, the laws of economics takes over and the price skyrockets.

Without the introduction of some disrupter technology (no solid state batteries are not coming), there is zero chance that Cali is all BEV by 2035. ZERO.

Most car batteries are getting away from the use of cobalt so there is that....

Why is the Mach E only "party trick cool"? What makes it less worth $70k than an F150? Granted you can't drive your Mach E outside of the city because of charging infrastructure but Tesla can go all over the US and that network will soon be open to all EVs.

 

[Old Ranchero]

What isn't listed: Maverick BEV. They have Explorer BEV, Bronco BEV, and Ranger BEV, but not Maverick. Seems to indicate Ford isn't aiming to make a full electric Maverick. So 2033 would be the earliest?

There would have to be a convincing business case that a full BEV would move the Needle significantly on profitability. Same as with hybrid AWD dreams. When we're talking roughly 100k units annual production and demand far outpacing supply already, too many niche variants may actually dilute profitability on this entry level vehicle with obvious internal focus on cost containment.

 

[NoVaJimmy]

Not true grasshopper; redesign/refresh normally happens in year 3, no model 6 years. BMW was redesigned for 3 years, new model year 5. OF course, each manufacturer is slightly different, but most follow a shorter new model schedule.
If Toyota can build and price their new compact truck close to the Maverick, Ford will have to do something quickly; they do not want to lose market share.
I predict a PHEV will happen in MY23 for the Maverick, and an AWD Hybrid will appear. I'm sure when Toyota truck appears, it will have a Hybrid AWD

I would bet that we don't see a PHEV for 2023. Also, not every vehicle gets completely redesigned after their 6 or 7 year cycle. Many get a heavy refresh which is what I said. I seriously doubt Ford is going to put serious development money into the Maverick which is meant as an entry level vehicle to eventually sell more profitable vehicles. It already says it's staying on the C2 platform, you'll get some refreshed bodywork, a refreshed interior, some new options, probably a PHEV sometime between 2024 and then but the bones of it will most likely be exactly what it is today. Toyota is probably looking at a MY24 or 25 intro at the earliest, they are most likely not going to follow Ford's 3 year development process and even if they did that puts them at a 2024 release at the earliest. I'd say 2025 until we see a Toyota competitor.

 

[710-oil-614]

The big issue is that Ford does a really crappy job with any of the tech. They can't OTA there way out of a paper bag, user profiles are wonky and continue to cause issues. Continued problems with the HVBJB that basically bricks your car. It's a beta version.

Also, the crappy interior materials. Vegan leather. NEVER buying another car with that crap in it. The list goes on but I have a 9 oclock meeting I have to get ready for.

Oh, the party trick, 0-60 speed. However, because Ford undersized the HVBJB, it only allows full throttle for 5-seconds. yes, you read that right. After 5 seconds, it cuts the throttle on you. And if you do it too many times or going up really long mountain passes, it will brick on you.

We use ours for a city car and have one ICE vehicle now with a second ICE vehicle on order (the MAV).

Fair response - was actually expecting the usual EV dirt kicking.

I ordered a Model 3 out of frustration with Ford (Maverick and Bronco) and a 6pk of holiday IPAs.....86 days later it was at the service center so I figured what the hell I'll drive it until the Maverick shows up...............................................................................

7,500 miles later and I'm actually so impressed with it I probably won't sell it even when the Maverick arrives.

I don't have any of the Ford related issues you're speaking of. The biggest "gremlin" I see with the Model 3 is that regenerative braking is limited in colder weather or when the vehicle battery is cold but that's about it. Everything else has been flawless.

EDIT: And I'm not just an EV fan boy. I respect what the future holds (EVs) while still enjoying the present and past. We're actually living during a cool time period where we get to experience both EV and ICE and everything in between (hybrid variants).

What it probably has done to me is that I no longer lust for some of my dream ICE vehicles like a Porsche 993, I parted with my 69 Camaro SS, and generally think the prices paid for classic ICE sports cars is maniacal.

But I'm pretty resolute in my desire for an ICE truck and/or 4x4 off road vehicle. As well as my long road trip vehicle (like the wife's Odyssey) even though EVs are capable of doing longer trips the ICE vehicle reigns supreme for now.

 

[richman555]

I am just worried about ordering a 2024 model next year. I don't really need a Ranger, but maybe Id consider it as an alternative based on availability.

Also I have heard rumblings about a Maverick Thunder model in the near future.

 

[710-oil-614]

Lots of similarities you and I. I'm currently looking for a 70 Boss to fulfil my dream car desire, so i get it.

Dad still has his 72 Nova that we're slowly working back into daily driving shape. He's the original owner and while it's rust free and looks fantastic it is mechanically a mess after sitting for 30+ years.

Get it fired up and you drive a few miles and hoses spring leaks, seals are blown.....then you fix one problem and it's like chasing the dragon.

It was mostly all original (he's the original owner) so there was always a desire to kind of keep it as is but time and inactivity will do that to a vehicle.

 

[eRock92]

Let me get this straight. This report is saying that:

• Gen 1 Bronco Sport will go through Summer 2031??? (note there is only one (1) Vehicle Program No. for the BS while others have 2+ VPN's, thus it must be the same generation; so I assume there has to be a couple facelifts during this time)
• Gen 4 Escape wraps up the end of 2025; Gen 5 Escape is on the GE2.1 platform !?!?!? (I thought the Mach-E's platform was strictly for EV's)
• The Lincoln Corsair is finished after 2025 !?!?!? (there is no other Corsair generations listed; is it being axed?)
• The Hyundai Tucson and Santa Cruz no longer share platforms after Fall 2026; the Tucson sharing platform wit the Santa Fe and the Cruz sharing platform with 2 small Genesis CUV and a Kia pickup??? Huh!?!?!?!?

I don't know y'all. I think we need to read this with a grain of salt. Some of the vehicle platforming decisions seem odd. Then again, I'm not an automotive engineer, so I should just stay in my lane.

 

[Shay]

Let me get this straight. This report is saying that:

• Gen 1 Bronco Sport will go through Summer 2031??? (note there is only one (1) Vehicle Program No. for the BS while others have 2+ VPN's, thus it must be the same generation; so I assume there has to be a couple facelifts during this time)
• Gen 4 Escape wraps up the end of 2025; Gen 5 Escape is on the GE2.1 platform !?!?!? (I thought the Mach-E's platform was strictly for EV's)
• The Lincoln Corsair is finished after 2025 !?!?!? (there is no other Corsair generations listed; is it being axed?)
• The Hyundai Tucson and Santa Cruz no longer share platforms after Fall 2026; the Tucson sharing platform wit the Santa Fe and the Cruz sharing platform with 2 small Genesis CUV and a Kia pickup??? Huh!?!?!?!?

I don't know y'all. I think we need to read this with a grain of salt. Some of the vehicle platforming decisions seem odd. Then again, I'm not an automotive engineer, so I should just stay in my lane.

Keep in mind this publication is all a "forecast" based on many different sources of information and not the manufacturer's directly. (They are not in the business of sharing their own future product plans). Also note, there are a lot of "new" vehicle programs underway not shown here.

That said most of the items you note, and other things I see on this forecast jive with what makes sense:

• Bronco Sport through 31 works if they treat it right with updates. After that there may not be a place in the lineup for it.

• Escape moving to a different platform - maybe even EV? Sure. It barely competes right now in its current mission in life and is identical in size to the Bronco Sport. Changing its size and scope makes sense with Edge going away. Ford needs a smaller EV anyway to compete with the laundry list of others already showing up in that size space.

• Lincoln like Cadillac is going 100% EV by decade's end - in a very short period. No need for a new Corsair. You will note that there are no replacements for any of Lincoln's ICE models heading for the exit. Navigator will continue to 30 but will be the lone ICE model at that point and may well by then by PHEV.

• Hyundai/Kia likely see better fortunes in pushing their trucks up to mid-grade/mid-size to compete directly with the Honda Ridgelines of the world. They are not set up to compete in a price conscious space that the compact Maverick class has now become. The Santa Cruz is a premium product by comparison. They likely figure their best play is push it further into that place. And.....given that Genesis has stated their products will always be RWD based it could be possible the Santa Cruz/Kia Truck may go that direction if the platform is shared. (guess)

 

[710-oil-614]

love those Novas. They are getting popular now with collectors. My neighbor has a 69 with the 396. Love it. Little nose heavy but it's cool. Do you yank that 350 out that came stock in the 72, or just build it up a bit.

Still the original 350. He did put a 4 barrel quadrajet carb and some hooker long tube headers (which are currently wide open right now).

It makes a lot of noise but she's not terribly fast.

He had a 66 Chevelle SS (with a 396) that he sold when I was younger. I'm not sure I've forgiven him yet. My 69 Camaro SS was his brothers that we got in the early 2000s and kept through last year. It went back up north (Erie, PA) to get a full resto.

 

[JChristiansen]

Wonder when the Toyota hybrid AWD small truck will be built…..

NOWHERE!! Cause its not coming!

 

[DrewcioAdenade]

I would assume that at -some- point a PHEV Maverick is in the cards.

Remember that the Maverick is by some accounts a pretty acceptable fleet vehicle as-is. (I know when I was working in Telecom contracting, 10 years ago even at 30MPG we would have been over it like hot-cakes. In industries like that fuel payments can easily dwarf a lease.)


Will they go full plug-in? Probably, but that will take a while. Ford would probably much rather milk first F-150, then Ranger BEVs as long as they can. As I alluded to above, a lot of fleet customers would likely do just as well with a 'proper' E-Maverick as they could with the F-150 Lightning.

Mind you, if another manufacturer (I think we are counting on you, Hyundai, GM can barely do an ICE Colorado properly) releases a competitive small BEV truck(let) their motivations will change. But otherwise Ford has little motivation to undercut themselves.

 

[Tirpitz]

Those debating the California EV mandate should understand that it is not BEV only. It does allow PHEV as an acceptable alternative. When everyone tries to say a California is banning gas engines they are wrong. What they are doing is only allowing gas engines with a plug-in option. The media coverage of this has been terrible so it’s not surprising that no one understands this.

What I have yet to see because the rules havent been written yet is the precise EV range that will be required for the plug-ins. For sure, it is going to be more than a measly 20 or 30 miles that some companies have been turning out.

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