Unlikely Scenario for MY22 Fulfillment of All Chapman Horsham Orders...

[Captain]

Not quite. The numbers in the 3 columns on the right are all as of end of month. As of the end of Feb, they had 129 unscheduled hybrid orders and 104 unscheduled EB orders.

The March line are my guesses at the distribution of the 28 scheduling allocations (for May production dates) they got for March. So if my guess of 10 hybrid and 18 EB are correct, as of the end of March they'd have 119 unscheduled hybrids and 86 unscheduled EB.

Thank you for your math skills and of course your patience. I don’t have a Chapman order but your logic , makes sense so I was glad to see how a possible break down would be. My September XLT AWD LUX 360 TOW order will most like be build. Stay safe.

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[Automate]

just got word that Chapman is only getting 28 scheduling allocations for March. ... this one comes in closer to a 35-36% reduction.


It'll be interesting to hear on @fordvideoguy 's YouTube video tonight how many allocations they ended up getting for March, since their preliminary number was a ~67% decline from their recent number.

I'm wondering if these allocation deductions are a result of Ford changing their allocation formula due to all the complaints by people that ordered from small dealers.

 

[theway-yay-ting]

I'm wondering if these allocation deductions are a result of Ford changing their allocation formula due to all the complaints by people that ordered from small dealers.

I really doubt it. @fordvideoguy broke it down on his Episode 30 video - it's based on sales of the following vehicles:
30% Escape
30% Ranger
15% Bronco Sport
15% Ecosport
10% Fusion Hybrid

Honestly, I think the allocation reduction is purely based on what Ford expects it can actually build in the May timeframe, based on supply chain constraints. They already announced they were cutting their scheduling allotments to 5400 for the month, so individual dealer allocations would naturally have to decrease as well.

Another factor could also be the overall distribution of orders at each dealer (percentages of Hybrid vs. Ecoboost remaining unscheduled). As of end of Feb, Chapman's ratio was 55% Hybrid/45% EB. Since the hybrid very likely requires more electronics/modules/chips, dealers with large percentages of Hybrids to be scheduled may be reduced further?

All pure speculation on my part, only time will tell.

 

[Automate]

I really doubt it. @fordvideoguy broke it down on his Episode 30 video - it's based on sales of the following vehicles:
30% Escape
30% Ranger
15% Bronco Sport
15% Ecosport
10% Fusion Hybrid

Obviously this is only part of the overall allocation formula. Other parts could still have changed. The above formula does not even include Maverick orders. So a dealer selling 500 Mavericks would not get any more than a dealer selling 10 Mavericks if the number of the above listed vehicles sold by the dealers are the same.

Also, formulas for Bronco allocation have been posted online and they are much more complicated than the above.

 

[theway-yay-ting]

Obviously this is only part of the overall allocation formula. Other parts could still have changed. The above formula does not even include Maverick orders. So a dealer selling 500 Mavericks would not get any more than a dealer selling 10 Mavericks if the number of the above listed vehicles sold by the dealers are the same.

Also, formulas for Bronco allocation have been posted online and they are much more complicated than the above.

Sure, Tim even mentioned that the massive change in their own allocations made no sense based on this formula and their own sales of these models.

But I also doubt online forum complaints had anything to do with Ford changing dealer allocations.

 

[yakefu]

I wonder to know how many unscheduled Marvicks are June or July orders. So I can estimate when I can get my truck to be built.

 

[theway-yay-ting]

I wonder to know how many unscheduled Marvicks are June or July orders. So I can estimate when I can get my truck to be built.

That's the one question they've never answered. Hopefully you get scheduled this month!

 

[yakefu]

That's the one question they've never answered. Hopefully you get scheduled this month!

Thank you but I've lost my hope already.

 

[Decayed]

I'm wondering if these allocation deductions are a result of Ford changing their allocation formula due to all the complaints by people that ordered from small dealers.

Maybe, but they should still just do a FIFO order system. Allocations screw everything up for the customer. Then again, the dealers are part of ford's customer base.

 

[Automate]

Maybe, but they should still just do a FIFO order system. Allocations screw everything up for the customer. Then again, the dealers are part of ford's customer base.

Seems as though they are trying to get all the June, July, August and First Editions scheduled. If they don't get those made as '22s, they will never hear the end of it.

 

[theway-yay-ting]

It'll be interesting to hear on @fordvideoguy 's YouTube video tonight how many allocations they ended up getting for March, since their preliminary number was a ~67% decline from their recent number. That would at least give us one more data point (albeit in a different region) for how this month's allocations are panning out for the large volume dealers.

Tim confirmed that Long McArthur’s March scheduling allocations stayed at 9, representing a 70% reduction from their February number.

We really won’t know what to make of this until April allocation numbers (both overall Ford target and individual dealers like Chapman & Long McArthur) come out.

Is it a one-time reduction to be followed by a return to previous averages? Or a trend that will continue? As I’ve said before, we’ll all find out sooner or later…

 

[Yar]

Allocations

Unscheduled (as of EOM)

Month	Total	Hybrid	Gas	Total	Hybrid	Gas
Jan	43	(not sure on these)	(not sure on these)	272	170	102
Feb	45	28 41	17 4*	227 233*	142129	85104*
Mar	28	10	18	205	119	86

Thanks for doing this chart. I will follow this thread to watch for your updates. It sort of helps put it in perspective that, although I ordered in June 2021, Ford didn't really start delivering the Hybrids until January. This looks like it's going to be a Lonnnnnnnggg Spring.

 

[Vols44]

Obviously this is only part of the overall allocation formula. Other parts could still have changed. The above formula does not even include Maverick orders. So a dealer selling 500 Mavericks would not get any more than a dealer selling 10 Mavericks if the number of the above listed vehicles sold by the dealers are the same.

Also, formulas for Bronco allocation have been posted online and they are much more complicated than the above.

\

@fordvideoguy mentioned in another YT live stream that last year's Bronco allocation formula included how many Jeeps surrounding dealerships sold the previous year. This year's Bronco formula was based on Escape, Edge, Ranger, Maverick ICE and F-150 sales.

For both models it's called the Market Basket Formula.

Regional Scheduler, if your reading this post. The top selling Maverick dealer in the Kansas City region needs some supplemental allocations this month. Just 9 for a Salina, KS location with 583 orders is an unnecessary constrain.

 

[theway-yay-ting]

Some good news, and some "meh" news...

The good news is that 28 Chapman-Horsham orders are in preview for scheduling this week! The "meh" news is that this is the total number of March allocations, so I would bet there'll be no Maverick scheduling at all next week (especially since this week is scheduling for two full production weeks, 5/2 & 5/9).

But back to the GOOD news... hopefully 28 Chapman-Horsham order-holders get some long-awaited great news this Thursday. The breakdown right now (no guarantee this will be final, but at least the orders in preview) is 19 hybrid and 9 Ecoboost (basically the reverse of my previously adjusted March projections). I've updated the table below accordingly.

Allocations

Unscheduled (as of EOM)​

Month	Total	Hybrid	Gas	Total	Hybrid	Gas
Jan	43	(not sure on these)	(not sure on these)	272	170	102
Feb	45	28 41	17 4*	227 233*	142129	85104*
Mar	28	19	9	205	110	95

It'll be very interesting to see what the April allocation number is (won't likely know that for a few weeks).

One thing that's noteworthy is they've recently reduced the gap between the scheduling email and the actual production week.

• On Feb 7, they were scheduling for production week of 4/11 - 63 days.
• On Feb 14, they were scheduling for production week of 4/18 - 63 days.
• On Feb 28, they were scheduling for production week of 4/25 - 56 days.
• On Mar 21, they'll be scheduling for production week of 5/2 & 5/9 - 5/9 is only 49 days.

Hopefully, this trend continues. It would mean that the overall timeline from scheduled to produced to delivered would be shorter, increasing the chances of delivering all the MY22 orders prior to cutover to MY23.

Good luck this Thursday, especially to all the June/July/August orders!!!

 

[Tylorious]

Thanks for the analysis! Man I hope my August first edition hybrid order gets scheduled soon. My '06 Town & Country with 220k miles is starting to develop electrical issues.

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