Unlikely Scenario for MY22 Fulfillment of All Chapman Horsham Orders...

[theway-yay-ting]

I wish Chapman would be more open on where I am in line. I asked about two months ago when Tom posted there were 170 hybrids outstanding. I asked where I was, if I was 100 or 160, but all I got back was the generic 170 hybrid orders. I ordered from them on 1st of November, so I know I'm toward the end of the line, but would be nice to know how many Lariat Lux hybrids are in front of me. Shouldn't be that hard to check as I know Tim seems to be able to filter through orders pretty easily on his videos.

I agree it'd be nice, but have decided to just accept the non-answer on that for now. It's gotta be tough for them as well, as they don't really know for sure, even if there are X number of hybrids ordered before yours, that you will be the (X+1) hybrid scheduled. For the most part, it seems Ford is scheduling the older orders first, but I'd hate to be the dealer and get someone's hopes up about the when and then have that customer's order get passed over again.

I know I'm toward the end of the hybrid orders as well (26 Oct), so I'll just take satisfaction in knowing that every hybrid that gets scheduled gets one closer to mine coming up.

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[James L. Harrison]

I wish Chapman would be more open on where I am in line. I asked about two months ago when Tom posted there were 170 hybrids outstanding. I asked where I was, if I was 100 or 160, but all I got back was the generic 170 hybrid orders. I ordered from them on 1st of November, so I know I'm toward the end of the line, but would be nice to know how many Lariat Lux hybrids are in front of me. Shouldn't be that hard to check as I know Tim seems to be able to filter through orders pretty easily on his videos.

IMHO Chapman doesn't know where you are in line; that's determined by FoMoCo. And the input parameters of the computer program that chooses what is to be built next week changes/evolves constantly. More than likely FoMoCo doesn't know what they're going to have the correct chips [or whatever constraint] for next week until fairly close to zero day.

 

[theway-yay-ting]

Posting an updated table here, based on additional info. Tim Bartz mentioned in his weekly YouTube update last night that for the month of March, Ford plans to schedule 5400 Mavericks, and unlike recent months, that the split would be 50% Hybrids and 50% Ecoboost. I split the March schedule allocations close to 50/50 (of course adding the extra to the hybrid side because I'm selfish... ;o)

Also of note, he mentioned that Long McArthur's preliminary allocation for March was only 9 (for context, their allocation for Feb scheduling was 30). Tim was obviously disappointed in the low number and said they'd appealed for more. They are in a different region than Chapman, so still unknown what we can expect relative to the 45 I previously projected for March & future months. Fingers crossed on that one, should know by the end of the week or early next week for sure.

The other surprising thing @fordvideoguy mentioned in his video (at the 1:29:42 mark) is that August would be the last production month for MY22 Mavericks. Under normal circumstances, this would be understandable, given that production on the next year's models generally starts in that timeframe.

However, this post stated that the order banks would open for MY23 Mavs on 16 Aug, with production not beginning until 24 Oct. It's highly unlikely Ford would just shut the plant down for all of September and most of October, especially since there likely won't be any major retooling needed for the changeover to the new model year.

Allocations

Unscheduled (as of EOM)​

Month	Total	Hybrid	Gas	Total	Hybrid	Gas
Jan	43	(not sure on these)	(not sure on these)	272	170	102
Feb	45	28 41	17 4*	227 233*	142129	85104*
Mar	45(?)	23	22	188	106	82
Apr	45	28	17	143	78	65
May	45	28	17	98	50	48
Jun	45	28	17	53	22	31
Jul	45	19	26	8	3	5

For the future months, I left the previous 62.5%/37.5% split. Still seems like most of the unscheduled queue could be knocked out, but the big wildcard is the sudden dramatic drop in allocations for another high volume dealer (Long McArthur). Hopefully that doesn't carry over to Chapman!

Given that hybrid orders were cut off on 11/17, I suspect my Oct 26th hybrid order is in the last 20 or so, which means I probably shouldn't expect a build date email any sooner than July (or mayyyyybe Jun). That doesn't mean I won't still be hoping for one every "scheduling week Thursday" between now & then, LOL.

Ultimately, if either a) Chapman's monthly scheduling allocations suddenly drop precipitously, or b) Ford stops building MY22 Mavs at the end of Aug rather than throughout most of September, us late order folks could definitely be getting rolled over to MY23. We'll all find out sooner or later...

 

[theway-yay-ting]

Well, @fordvideoguy Tim (as always!) was quick to respond... he said his mention of August cutoff for MY22 production was just a "safe bet", and agreed that they very well may produce all the way through September. Hope springs eternal!

 

[MLowe05]

Did you ever hear back on allocations for Chapman in March?

 

[theway-yay-ting]

Did you ever hear back on allocations for Chapman in March?

As of yesterday afternoon, they still didn’t have them. I know that Tim Bartz (although different region) had said earlier this week that he would hopefully have them by Friday, but haven’t seen an update from him yet either.
Several odd things of late - Tim had mentioned their preliminary allotment for March scheduling was only 9 (prior month was 30). Tim also mentioned in episode #30 that Ford had announced the formula they were using for Maverick (and other models), and noted that their prelim number didn’t make sense based on the formula.
Ford didn’t post Feb production totals (whereas in prior months they always included them with the sales numbers). Not sure why, but I suspect it was due to the number going on the wrong direction.
The March scheduling allocation (for May production dates) went down by about a thousand (compared to prior month target of 6500 if I recall correctly). This would also indicate that production capacity (and/or parts availability) is not what they’d originally planned for.
Still gonna stay hopeful (and try to be patient, haha!)…

 

[BobS]

As of yesterday afternoon, they still didn’t have them. I know that Tim Bartz (although different region) had said earlier this week that he would hopefully have them by Friday, but haven’t seen an update from him yet either.
Several odd things of late - Tim had mentioned their preliminary allotment for March scheduling was only 9 (prior month was 30). Tim also mentioned in episode #30 that Ford had announced the formula they were using for Maverick (and other models), and noted that their prelim number didn’t make sense based on the formula.
Ford didn’t post Feb production totals (whereas in prior months they always included them with the sales numbers). Not sure why, but I suspect it was due to the number going on the wrong direction.
The March scheduling allocation (for May production dates) went down by about a thousand (compared to prior month target of 6500 if I recall correctly). This would also indicate that production capacity (and/or parts availability) is not what they’d originally planned for.
Still gonna stay hopeful (and try to be patient, haha!)…

Thanks for keeping up with this! It's a big help for us Chapman orders. (July 8th Hybrid XLT Lux CP 360) stopped getting straight answers from them even though I only bug them once a month if then. Maybe this week..... Hope springs eternal!

 

[theway-yay-ting]

Thanks for keeping up with this! It's a big help for us Chapman orders. (July 8th Hybrid XLT Lux CP 360) stopped getting straight answers from them even though I only bug them once a month if then. Maybe this week..... Hope springs eternal!

It’s helped to keep me busy. I definitely hope that the early orders like you get theirs before mine! Especially since yours is my exact build.
I do suspect that the “loaded” XLT Lux 360s like both of ours are being prioritized by Ford since the package generates more revenue than packages missing some or all of the features. Hopefully that bodes well, but with an Oct 26 order date I still don’t realistically expect to get the schedule email anytime before June.
With your early July order and that package, I’d be shocked if you DON’T get an email either this week or next.

 

[Johnkn]

When I ordered in January Chapman stated they ‘had 300 orders ahead of mine’.

For those that do not get built and are converted to ‘23 orders, can changes be made (ie EB to Hybrid) without going to the back of the ordering line ?

Thanks...

 

[Maverick2023]

When I ordered in January Chapman stated they ‘had 300 orders ahead of mine’.

For those that do not get built and are converted to ‘23 orders, can changes be made (ie EB to Hybrid) without going to the back of the ordering line ?

Thanks...

Please don't. You change the trim then it starts all over again. Best not to make any changes. I dropped the SIBL and my prices for other options went up and priority code went to 19 from 10. Not worth it. Do not change since it doesn't guarantee you will move ahead. In fact, you will be pushed to MY23 more likely if you ordered in mid October 21.

 

[Johnkn]

Please don't. You change the trim then it starts all over again. Best not to make any changes. I dropped the SIBL and my prices for other options went up and priority code went to 19 from 10. Not worth it. Do not change since it doesn't guarantee you will move ahead. In fact, you will be pushed to MY23 more likely if you ordered in mid October 21.

Tim stated that if a 22 order is not fulfilled and converted to a ‘23 order, changing the order at that point (ie” EB to Hybrid) would not lose that place in line......



.

 

[theway-yay-ting]

Well dang & double-dang... just got word that Chapman is only getting 28 scheduling allocations for March. Given that Ford announced they would only be scheduling 5400 during March (for May builds - a 17% reduction from the 6500 they targeted for Feb), this is not a complete shock, but it definitely throws doubt on the bigger picture.

A 17% reduction in Chapman's steady ~45 allocations would have left us at 37, but this one comes in closer to a 35-36% reduction.

I wouldn't be surprised if a bunch of EcoBoosts get scheduled this week (and perhaps this month as well), since last month's breakout was 91% hybrid - pendulum was bound to swing the other way. I adjusted my March Hybrid/Ecoboost projection accordingly.

Allocations

Unscheduled (as of EOM)

Month	Total	Hybrid	Gas	Total	Hybrid	Gas
Jan	43	(not sure on these)	(not sure on these)	272	170	102
Feb	45	28 41	17 4*	227 233*	142129	85104*
Mar	28	10	18	205	119	86

I removed the other rows from the table for now, until we at least get some insight on what this month's distribution between Hybrid/EB will be.

This article noted the second consecutive week of closure for the Ohio Assembly plant, and Ford explicitly cited the chip shortage, with Ford saying "it expects chip-related woes to persist through Q1 before easing a bit in Q2, with its global volume increasing by around 10-15 percent by the end of the year ". As noted in this post detailing scheduling for the week of 3/14, multiple other models aren't scheduling at all (after not scheduling last week either).

With a planned early-mid October completion of MY22 production, I expect that there will be ongoing allocations (and scheduling emails) in April, May, June, July, and even August. That's 5 more months; if the monthly scheduling allocation number stays at this month's 28, that accounts for 140 out of the 205 that will be unscheduled at the end of March (leaving 65 to roll over to MY23).

If it jumps back up to even 41 for the remainder of the time, all 205 get built.

It'll be interesting to hear on @fordvideoguy 's YouTube video tonight how many allocations they ended up getting for March, since their preliminary number was a ~67% decline from their recent number. That would at least give us one more data point (albeit in a different region) for how this month's allocations are panning out for the large volume dealers.

 

[Decayed]

Well dang & double-dang... just got word that Chapman is only getting 28 scheduling allocations for March. Given that Ford announced they would only be scheduling 5400 during March (for May builds - a 17% reduction from the 6500 they targeted for Feb), this is not a complete shock, but it definitely throws doubt on the bigger picture.

A 17% reduction in Chapman's steady ~45 allocations would have left us at 37, but this one comes in closer to a 35-36% reduction.

I wouldn't be surprised if a bunch of EcoBoosts get scheduled this week (and perhaps this month as well), since last month's breakout was 91% hybrid - pendulum was bound to swing the other way. I adjusted my March Hybrid/Ecoboost projection accordingly.

Allocations

Unscheduled (as of EOM)

Month	Total	Hybrid	Gas	Total	Hybrid	Gas
Jan	43	(not sure on these)	(not sure on these)	272	170	102
Feb	45	28 41	17 4*	227 233*	142129	85104*
Mar	28	10	18	205	119	86

I removed the other rows from the table for now, until we at least get some insight on what this month's distribution between Hybrid/EB will be.

This article noted the second consecutive week of closure for the Ohio Assembly plant, and Ford explicitly cited the chip shortage, with Ford saying "it expects chip-related woes to persist through Q1 before easing a bit in Q2, with its global volume increasing by around 10-15 percent by the end of the year ". As noted in this post detailing scheduling for the week of 3/14, multiple other models aren't scheduling at all (after not scheduling last week either).

With a planned early-mid October completion of MY22 production, I expect that there will be ongoing allocations (and scheduling emails) in April, May, June, July, and even August. That's 5 more months; if the monthly scheduling allocation number stays at this month's 28, that accounts for 140 out of the 205 that will be unscheduled at the end of March (leaving 65 to roll over to MY23).

If it jumps back up to even 41 for the remainder of the time, all 205 get built.

It'll be interesting to hear on @fordvideoguy 's YouTube video tonight how many allocations they ended up getting for March, since their preliminary number was a ~67% decline from their recent number. That would at least give us one more data point (albeit in a different region) for how this month's allocations are panning out for the large volume dealers.

Am I reading this correctly to say that chapman currently has 86 unscheduled ecoboost orders and is getting 18 ecoboost allocations for march for may build dates?

 

[theway-yay-ting]

Am I reading this correctly to say that chapman currently has 86 unscheduled ecoboost orders and is getting 18 ecoboost allocations for march for may build dates?

Not quite. The numbers in the 3 columns on the right are all as of end of month. As of the end of Feb, they had 129 unscheduled hybrid orders and 104 unscheduled EB orders.

The March line are my guesses at the distribution of the 28 scheduling allocations (for May production dates) they got for March. So if my guess of 10 hybrid and 18 EB are correct, as of the end of March they'd have 119 unscheduled hybrids and 86 unscheduled EB.

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