Unlikely Scenario for MY22 Fulfillment of All Chapman Horsham Orders...

[theway-yay-ting]

I reached out to remove my bed liner and bed rails to boost my chances. Kyle said there were a few rollovers scheduled, so that's good at least. Of course if all 16 of the allocations were scheduled, that could mean a good number of new orders were scheduled also. Just playing devil's advocate

Well @MLowe05 was one of the rollover hybrids to get scheduled, but that one was a stripped down XL. Every one that gets scheduled hopefully brings it that much closer to the rest of us getting scheduled. It was interesting (but not surprising) to see that many of the EBs that got scheduled were Lariat Lux, XLT Lux, had CP-360, etc. The hybrid (whether it's transmission, battery, or assorted other components) continues to really be the big sticking point for the rest of us, it seems.

Hopefully they keep chipping away... (pun sort of intended)

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[theway-yay-ting]

Update as of today... they are at 260 unscheduled MY23s (193 hybrid, 67 Ecoboost). That means that since the past update (11/1, when they were at 206 Hyb/76 EB), they had 13 more hybrids and 11 more EBs schedule. All told, looks like they've had 38 total orders get scheduled since they started (and only Oct allocations have scheduled so far, as this most recent week was just cleanup scheduling).

This might be easier to follow in tabular format, so here goes:

Date	Allocation Month	Hybrid Sched (Total)	EB Sched (Total)	Hybrid Unsched	EB Unsched	Total Unsched
9/30/22	N/A	0 (0)	0 (0)	219	79	298
11/1/22	Oct	13 (13)	3 (3)	206	76	282
11/14/22	Oct (cleanup)	13 (26)	9 (12)	193	67	260

Unlike last time around, I'm not making any projections yet. I will say it's pretty encouraging they have already had 38 of the original 298 orders (12.8%) get scheduled, and especially the large number of hybrids. Then again, given Ford's stated plan of 35%/65% hybrid/EB mix, pretty sure that pendulum is going to swing back to the EB side.

The other wildcard is since we know that Ford hasn't yet created the new MY23 orders for the cancelled MY22 VIN-holding hybrids, the Hybrid unsched number is going to jump upward by some unknown amount (probably some time in the next week or so). AND, those orders will (rightly so) be prioritized ahead of the rest of us hybrid order-holders who didn't get a VIN last model year. I have no idea how many of these Chapman-Horsham had, but I'm pretty confident it's in the double digits.

There's still a chance that a number of (non-cancelled-VIN) hybrid rollovers and/or new hybrid orders get scheduled in the coming weeks, as Horsham & Ford work through the process of modifying trim and/or options and getting those cancelled VINs rescheduled as MY23s. I'm not getting my hopes up, though.

At the end of MY22, there were 35 unscheduled hybrids & 53 unscheduled EBs, although as noted before, not all of those placed rollover orders. By my estimate, about 10-15 of those hybrids were ahead of me in line. The unscheduled hybrid number will grow this week by some unknown amount, and all of those will likely be scheduled before mine as well.

Best case, I don't expect my late Oct 2021 rollover hybrid will get scheduled until Dec or Jan at earliest (and at that point it will be for a Feb-March production date). I remember thinking I'd be getting my Mav in Spring when I ordered in late October 2021; I guess I should have been more specific on which Spring...

 

[skadizzle]

Yes, if Ford did like they said they would and scheduled 22 orders first, then there should've only been 10-15 total outstanding 22 hybrids after these last two weeks and I'm probably in the same boat as you with only 10-15 ahead of us at the beginning, so we SHOULD'VE been scheduled as part of the 26 builds the last two weeks. Of course it's Ford so we weren't and I'm sure some of them were new 23 orders.

 

[Falcon01]

My late October order is also still unscheduled. :/ I was hoping after seeing an additional 26 get scheduled, but no such luck. Oh well. My 911 gets build in the beginning of December, so at least I'll have that

 

[theway-yay-ting]

My late October order is also still unscheduled. :/ I was hoping after seeing an additional 26 get scheduled, but no such luck. Oh well. My 911 gets build in the beginning of December, so at least I'll have that

We originally ordered on the same day, so I'm rooting for you! It'll be interested to see which of yours, mine, and @ssumass gets scheduled. My money is on the loaded (and more profitable) Lariat Lux order... (plus @ssumass was a day ahead of us on 10/25/21 anyway).

 

[theway-yay-ting]

For those tracking here instead of the other thread, latest update from Ashlie is:
239 unscheduled
175 hybrid
64 Ecoboost

Not sure how the hybrid number went down by 18 (since 14 Nov) with the addition of however many cancelled hybrids they had to roll over into new orders, although maybe those numbers still aren't reflected here.

Sure would like to hear from some Chapman-Horsham MY23 hybrid orders who were among the first to get scheduled, see if there's a common thread. If these numbers are accurate, it would suggest they've had over 40 hybrids get scheduled already.

 

[theway-yay-ting]

Updating the table based on info from them today:

Date	Allocation Month	Hybrid Sched (Total)	EB Sched (Total)	Hybrid Unsched	EB Unsched	Total Unsched
9/30/22	N/A	0 (0)	0 (0)	219	79	298
11/1/22	Oct	13 (13)	3 (3)	206	76	282
11/14/22	Oct (cleanup)	13 (26)	9 (12)	193	67	260
11/22/22	Nov?	18 (44)	3 (15)	175	64	239
12/3/22	Nov	6 (50)	14 (29)	169	50	219

Important note - the only numbers I"ve been receiving from them are total unscheduled and how many of those are EBs, so I've been backing into all the other numbers.

Given the relatively low percentage of hybrids they had schedule this week, it's possible that they just didn't have a lot of cancelled VINs, or that they did but there were issues that prevented a smooth rollover. I'm hoping for the former, as it would suggest they'll start chipping away at the non-cancelled rollover hybrids soon.

On the other hand, it's a little disconcerting that they may have had ~50 hybrids schedule already and only 2 of those are among the group we've been tracking in this other thread. Hopefully they get another 20 or so next week and we see some familiar names among them.

On the plus side, looks like none of us unscheduled folks need to worry about making the trip to Horsham until at least March at this point...

 

[theway-yay-ting]

Minor update based on last week's scheduling:

Date	Allocation Month	Hybrid Sched (Total)	EB Sched (Total)	Hybrid Unsched	EB Unsched	Total Unsched
9/30/22	N/A	0 (0)	0 (0)	219	79	298
11/1/22	Oct	13 (13)	3 (3)	206	76	282
11/14/22	Oct (cleanup)	13 (26)	9 (12)	193	67	260
11/22/22	Nov?	18 (44)	3 (15)	175	64	239
12/3/22	Nov	6 (50)	14 (29)	169	50	219
12/10/22	Nov?	0 (50)	4 (33)	169	46	215

Appears they only got 4 EB scheduled last week, and no additional hybrids. Unknown yet whether there will be any scheduling this week, but we should hear soon.

 

[EM33]

Curious to see the effect of Ford's news today (allowing hybrid orders to switch to EB) on the buckets of unscheduled #'s above.

Also curious how Chapman plans to handle priority on any changes (i.e. priority on original order date vs. change/updated order date).

 

[theway-yay-ting]

Curious to see the effect of Ford's news today (allowing hybrid orders to switch to EB) on the buckets of unscheduled #'s above.

Also curious how Chapman plans to handle priority on any changes (i.e. priority on original order date vs. change/updated order date).

Definitely fair questions. I’m still wondering who (if anyone among the MY23s) got the 10s, as they gave all us rollovers Priority 11 back in September.

I definitely recommend that everyone with an unscheduled hybrid Should switch to EB, so my hybrid can get scheduled.

Kidding!

 

[EM33]

I definitely recommend that everyone with an unscheduled hybrid Should switch to EB, so my hybrid can get scheduled.

Kidding!

Can't disagree more but you sure are due! lol Appreciate any and all updates that you get from Ashlie.

 

[skadizzle]

I checked on the outstanding hybrid numbers and they have 34 rollover 22s that are at priority 11.

 

[theway-yay-ting]

I checked on the outstanding hybrid numbers and they have 34 rollover 22s that are at priority 11.

Man that is rough. Back in mid-Sep, at the end of MY22 scheduling, they had 33 rolled-over hybrids. (Edit - or maybe it was 35?) This was before the whole cancelled VIN debacle, which should have driven that number upward. However, based on the unscheduled numbers they’ve reported along the way, they’ve had roughly 50 hybrids schedule. And yet we’re STILL at 34 unscheduled hybrid rollovers?

 

[skadizzle]

Man that is rough. Back in mid-Sep, at the end of MY22 scheduling, they had 33 rolled-over hybrids. (Edit - or maybe it was 35?) This was before the whole cancelled VIN debacle, which should have driven that number upward. However, based on the unscheduled numbers they’ve reported along the way, they’ve had roughly 50 hybrids schedule. And yet we’re STILL at 34 unscheduled hybrid rollovers?

Those are the ones at 11. Maybe they had some at 10 before?

 

[theway-yay-ting]

Those are the ones at 11. Maybe they had some at 10 before?

Far as we know here, the best they gave any of us rollovers was 11.

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