Speculation on MY23's being built?

[bman]

On the bright side, if you live in a state charging personal property tax it's a bonus not to get yours until after new years... sort of.

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[Olikestrains]

I’m hoping for early 2023. My truck is a lariat eb with only fx4 and 4K packages so from what I’ve see quite a strange spec so hopefully they can make ecoboost lariat’s just not lux ones.

 

[IndyChill]

I'm gonna get me a tshirt that says "XL - No Constraints "
I wonder how many confirmation emails Ford sent before midnight 9/15/22 and, should our expectations be based on the MY22 production rates, or can/will Ford improve production?

 

[tdonch]

I'm hoping your correct and we can get our mavericks around the same time.

 

[MakinDoForNow]

Like many of you I ordered September 15th and received a confirmation email from Ford. I think the vast majority of us avoided all currently known constraints. I ordered an XL Hybrid with the ONLY option being the 400W inverter. I'm suspecting March - April delivery.

Go ahead, crush my dreams! When do you expect BASIC September 15th hybrids to be delivered?

Ok, with everyone worried about constraints and as a result minimizing what they ordered, how early on the 15th would you have to have ordered a Hybrid XL to get one of the the 35% of the 15% of all the 2023 XL mavericks reduced by all of the 2022 hybrid XL carry overs ordered as 2023's? Best to not second guess anything do not cancel anything nor reduce your order. Leave it be and give Ford time to figure out how it can build it. Your best bet even if you are several hundred orders past what Ford can build the the answer to your maverick being built becomes "How many who are before yours will cancel their orders?" Good luck.

 

[Drkuhar]

My dealer ordered on the 15th as soon as it opened at 3:30. Got my confirmation at 4:15 before the system crashed. Xlt hybrid with power inverter cab only and tow hitch. Does it matter how early you got the confirmation email at all. My downfall is its a smaller dealership .

 

[JimmyH]

…the answer to your maverick being built becomes "How many who are before yours will cancel their orders?" Good luck.

I hate to bring more negativity to this forum, but even if customers are requesting their orders to be cancelled, they won’t be. The dealers are just gonna let those trucks come to the dealership and mark them up. And to cover any penalties for not selling to the customer that ordered, I’m sure they will use any cancellation correspondence to justify it.

 

[RockHoundTX]

Let's see. I ordered a Hybrid XL with a hitch on October 1, 2021 with a promise that "it should be here by April. Hopefully March. May at the latest". Never got a VIN so had to reorder :-( My guess is that there were probably 10k-20k hybrid orders that were not scheduled last year. I don't know the real numbers, but based on what I have read here and other Forums, roughty 20%-30% of MY22 September Hybrid orders, 75% of October, and 95% of Novemeber MY22 orders were not scheduled. At this point, I expect my chances to be less than 5% that I will see a MY23.

If you are a roll-over with a Priority 10 and were the first one input by your dealer, then probably have a 50% change of getting a MY23. If you were not a roll-over and have a priority code that puts you behind other roll-overs, then your chances are probably close to zero. If you were the 4th or 5th hybrid order entered that day at a small to mid-size dealer, then maybe 10%-20% change of getting it (will depend on if there are any Hybrid XLs in front of you). Figure that given the 15% XL constraint, most small to mid-size dealers will maybe get 1, or at the max 2, Hybrid XLs this year. Large dealers may be lucky to get 3 or 4 out of 100 orders (only 35% of builds will be hybrids and out of these only 15% will be XLs). Based on the current allocation number (which everyone hopes and expects is wrong), there is not a single dealer that has an allocation over 50. That means even the largest dealers in the US will only get 1 or 2 and most small and mid-size dealers get zero. I talked to one dealer whose allocation was ONE (1) for the entire year. His chance of getting an XL is virtually zero.

That is the reality as currently dictated by Ford.

 

[Greg_in_GA]

Go ahead, crush my dreams!

As the saying goes; "Be careful what you ask for you might get it."

Here is how I see the math,

Assume they can make 10,000 Mavericks a month, that is 120,000 a year which might be a bit optimistic.

35% of those will be hybrids.

That is 3,500 a month.

15% of those will be XLs. That is 525 a month or 6,300 a year.

There are over 3,000 ford dealerships in the US so that is about 2 XL hybrids per dealership. If you are third in line at an average dealership then you would not get your Hybrid XL.

A few things that could make the odds even worse.

1) People that converted a 2022 order should get priority.

2) That math assumes that the distributions are spread out evenly. It would be naïve to think that Ford would choose to build an XL Hybrid when they could build a loaded Lariat Hybrid instead.

3) The XL Hybrid is a very popular choice and there are likely also orders for it by dealership employees, relatives of employees, repeat customers, friends of the owner, etc. If the dealership is only getting a few XL hybrids then the odds of a random customer off the street getting one of the XL Hybrids is slim.

Sorry to dash your hopes but you asked for it. While it is possible you might get one that does not sound very likely.

I actually had a pre-order for an XL Hybrid set up in July when the order book was scheduled to open in August. That was changed into an order on Saturday September 17 but by the time that happened there was a lot more information available and it was clear that there were massive orders and about 80% of them were for hybrids.

I ended up getting a second order set up for an XLT LUX Ecoboost with a different dealer. I decided to get the XLT in part because they will be 59% of the production compared to the 15% that will be XL.

If I do not run into other constraints I am hopeful that it will arrive by next spring and possibly even in the winter since only around 20 percent of the orders are for Ecoboosts and if they make 10,000 a month then they can make 6,500 Ecoboosts each month.

I am retired and we will not be putting a lot of miles on our Maverick when we get it so the lower MPG rating of the Ecoboost will not be a big impact on this.

 

[MakinDoForNow]

I hate to bring more negativity to this forum, but even if customers are requesting their orders to be cancelled, they won’t be. The dealers are just gonna let those trucks come to the dealership and mark them up. And to cover any penalties for not selling to the customer that ordered, I’m sure they will use any cancellation correspondence to justify it.

Some will do that, of course but my salaried agent did not want to order for anyone that may possibly consider cancelling. And my dealer is an MSRP dealer. And appears to be concerned about having too many sales that don't have the same address as is on covp/rovp.

 

[mtd14]

As the saying goes; "Be careful what you ask for you might get it."

Here is how I see the math,

Assume they can make 10,000 Mavericks a month, that is 120,000 a year which might be a bit optimistic.

35% of those will be hybrids.

That is 3,500 a month.

15% of those will be XLs. That is 525 a month or 6,300 a year.

There are over 3,000 ford dealerships in the US so that is about 2 XL hybrids per dealership. If you are third in line at an average dealership then you would not get your Hybrid XL.

A few things that could make the odds even worse.

1) People that converted a 2022 order should get priority.

2) That math assumes that the distributions are spread out evenly. It would be naïve to think that Ford would choose to build an XL Hybrid when they could build a loaded Lariat Hybrid instead.

3) The XL Hybrid is a very popular choice and there are likely also orders for it by dealership employees, relatives of employees, repeat customers, friends of the owner, etc. If the dealership is only getting a few XL hybrids then the odds of a random customer off the street getting one of the XL Hybrids is slim.

Sorry to dash your hopes but you asked for it.

Bingo. I ordered a Lariat Hybrid and was second in a mid size dealer and I doubt I get my order. I tossed in the CP360 since I figured it’s a coin toss at best anyways, so may as well go for the one extra I care about. While the XL is tempting as a bargain, I figured it was going to take the coin landing my way 3-4 times to have a chance.

 

[Finnster]

Some will do that, of course but my salaried agent did not want to order for anyone that may possibly consider cancelling. And my dealer is an MSRP dealer. And appears to be concerned about having too many sales that don't have the same address as is on covp/rovp.

I'll mark that down!
Let's see.... One in 26 replies has an actually honest dealer! I'd say that's a fairly close match to what I've experienced. Lol

 

[WesM]

I ordered a Hybrid XLT with lux and spray in bed liner. Last one took 9 months. I expect 9-12 months for this one.

 

[Esteban88]

Yes what data is available so far suggests that very few people who ordered 2023 hybrids will get one. Future MBA students will be writing theses about Ford's public relations blunder.

 

[Tezcatlypoca]

I feel slightly annoyed that those who got a MY22 are ordering a MY23. Maybe save one for the rest of us?

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