Oversimplified version
Think of the allocations like the NFL draft. The number of allocations a dealer has for that month equals the number of rounds they can participate in. But the order of each round is completely random and some dealers will participate in more rounds than other dealers.
When it is your dealership's turn, Ford will take the first (priority or time) order that they can build and then move on to the next dealership. If your dealer has no retail order Ford can build, Ford skips them or grabs a fleet order. So even if the 37th truck in line, if the 36 before you can't be built but you can, you will be selected.
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As for the predictions, Ford said 65% capacity was EB and they have scheduled ~41,000 Maverick so far according to @Automate's VIN tracker. 65% of 41,000 is 26,650. There were only 27,230 EB orders to start with so leaving Ford with only 580 EBs left to go. However, our numbers show Ford actually has ~8,600 EBs left to go, indicating they are not building EB retail orders at the ratio they said they would, even taking international orders in account. Thus, any spring prediction was rendered moot by Ford not actually scheduling EBs like they said they would.
Thanks for that info commadorebob. Its just a hard thing to grasp when I keep hearing/see "basic numbers = all ecoboosts built by spring/summer"...yet that doesn't actually represent how the vehicles will get delivered. I could wait months and months from now and my own dealership could get the exact same vehicle as mine as a dealer stock item before I even get mine built/delivered.
It sounds like it technically means the same amount of ecoboosts that were ordererd would be mathematically built by X day... but it does not mean that each one of those built has been built for a specific person who had an ecoboost order. Does that sound about right?
Is the dealership stock/allocation its own system? As in if my dealership is getting 5 allocations a month, are those 5 supposed to be what fills the dealer lots as well as custom orders, or just for custom orders? Because again, I would be so mad to see my dealer end up getting my same vehicle (hypothetically) as a dealer stock before I even get my order in. haha.
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