Elephant in room: Around 80% of orders are Hybrids.

[wrbrb]

Sorry to take this thread back on topic, but... Any idea if Ford will likely release a dealer memo with nationwide order book numbers so we know how many hybrid vs Ecoboost orders they actually got, and whether or not they will be able to source components and adjust their production mix accordingly?

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[tdonch]

I hope they release the amounts ordered to begin to set expectations soon. I went by my dealer today and they too had about 80% order hybrids. He tried to set the expectation of folks who ordered late and was told they wanted to take a chance. So, I have a bad felling about this.

 

[Impetus19]

Sorry to take this thread back on topic, but... Any idea if Ford will likely release a dealer memo with nationwide order book numbers so we know how many hybrid vs Ecoboost orders they actually got, and whether or not they will be able to source components and adjust their production mix accordingly?

They are going to need to address it, whether they will ask people to switch to EB, increase hybrid production, or just cancel orders ( I see no point in stringing people along if there is no chance of getting the vehicle built). Could take a couple of weeks to get sorted out though.

 

[GTBuzz]

I get that the Ecoboost works for some people, but I would have never wanted a Maverick if it wasn't for the Hybrid. My 2018 F-150 2.7l Ecoboost gets 26 mpg highway, almost as good as the maverick Ecoboost with way more capability. 42 mpg is what I'm looking for and the primary reason I want a Maverick, so I will wait however long it takes

I need just one thing, the small bed to get home supplies.

Should all day1 orders be marked priority10? Mine is marked 11

I hope they release the amounts ordered to begin to set expectations soon. I went by my dealer today and they too had about 80% order hybrids. He tried to set the expectation of folks who ordered late and was told they wanted to take a chance. So, I have a bad felling about this.

Yea my dealer did same thing trying to warn buyers.

I am seeing 80% hybrid orders all over. Ford was cutting 22 hybrid production at the end, I dont see how they could get the supply chain fixed for upcoming 23s quickly.

Maybe Ford should have hybrid price to 1 or 2k higher than EB, oppisite of last year, maybe that would even things out. That was main reason I went hybrid last year, the lower up front cost and then additional mpg savings. Now that they are same price I switched to EB.

 

[brucerob62]

im in the majority I guess i ordered XLT EB..luxury package so hoping be quicker

 

[nwrbs]

I ordered a XLT Hybrid on 9/16. I'm only interested in the hybrid... Only need the bed occasionally so it will be more like a car most of the time. I would have paid 1k more for the hybrid. Even with that, it really would be the cheapest hybrid...

 

[Milqueman]

Just out of curiosity, why does it seem that a lot of people are concerned with Retail Orders for Hybrids being at (or around) 80%?

Yes, there is information floating around out there that Ford said 35% will be Hybrids – I’m not debating this.

Yes, 80% of the orders so far have been Hybrids – I’m also not debating this.
I think what people are forgetting or not understanding is that this is for RETAIL orders.
Dealer STOCK orders are still OPEN.

When Ford put out the other day that they were closing the order banks, I feel a lot of people don’t realize this was for RETAIL orders ONLY. Ford continued on to say that “For the remainder of the 2023 Model Year, dealers will continue to be able to submit orders for dealer stock inventory”

So I figure it this way. Ford determined how many they can build in one year. Let’s use simple numbers and say 100,000 Mavericks. Then they calculated that they can make 35% of those Hybrids. That would be 35,000 Hybrid Mavericks.

5 days after the RETAIL order banks opened, they reached their 35,000 (35%) Cap on Hybrids, so they closed the RETAIL order banks. Yes, that happened to be 80% of the orders, but again, those are RETAIL orders. That just means that 80% of the Retail Orders are Hybrids – SO WHAT! Who Cares? People like Hybrids, that’s all that means. Ford still have STOCK orders for dealerships to fulfill.

If 35,000 Hybrids makes up 80% of the RETAIL orders, then mathematical, EcoBoost RETAIL orders would be around 8,750 Orders. That would make the total RETAIL orders at around 43,750 vehicles. This would leave around 56,250 remaining builds (from the total projected 100,000 total builds) for DEALER STOCK orders. If all of those Dealer STOCK orders are EcoBoost (which Ford can do, because they determine what gets built for STOCK orders, Dealerships don’t get to choose, hence the whole dealer allotment thing), then that would make a total amount of EcoBoost built at 65,000. (8,750 Retail + 56,250 Dealer Stock)

That would make 35% Hybrids and 65% EcoBoosts.

And just like that, BOOM, Ford met there percentage goals.



Nobody knows the actual numbers, but I feel people are worrying about nothing.



(ALL NUMBERS ARE HYPOTHETICAL TO EXPRESS MY POINT)

 

[Impetus19]

I think the reported dealer allocations are what is freaking everybody out.

 

[Rivers90]

The tracker is being revamped as I am making this post. There was some problem and it was mixing 22 and 23 orders. At least someone posted that it was. 80% may be using data from last years orders.
I do think your right, with orders only being open for a few days we all have a chance this time. Ford will make lots of plane gas trucks to fill dealer stock. So we all get our constrained orders.

 

[DavesMav]

Your numbers make a lot of sense, assuming Ford can make 100,000 Mavericks.

However, seeing the recent emails going around (super low allocations) really has me thinking Ford cannot match 2022 numbers and may be anticipating less Mavericks produced in 2023. Everyone was expecting Ford to build more Mavericks (myself included). But at this time, we have to at least consider that might not be the case...

What if Ford has a shorter MY2023 run planned that ends sometime around April? What if Ford can only secure parts to build 5,000 a month as well? That would cut production of 2023 down to roughly 30,000 units. 35% hybrid would mean only 10,500 Hybrids built as MY23.

Unfortunately all of our numbers at this point are speculation. We'll need to wait for more info. to trickle from Ford or the reputable dealers on this forum to get a better idea of what's actually going to happen.

 

[Rivers90]

I think the reported dealer allocations are what is freaking everybody out.

yes, but the numbers are so low I don't believe them. They cant be right.

 

[Darnon]

Considering how much Ford has (at least publicly) been emphasizing wanting to pivot to a "build to order" model would be contradictory to having >50% of Maverick orders be dealer stock.

 

[Impetus19]

Also you are assuming in your numbers that Ford received 35k hybrid orders. My feeling is that they received far more than that.

 

[RockHoundTX]

What you are missing is that Ford did not stop the Order Banks at 35k orders. Their are likely somewhere on the order of 150k-200k orders that were put in over the last 5 days. There are over 3000 Ford dealers and even the smallest of the small placed 10-20 orders. Mid-size dealers placed several hundred and larger dealers were placing over 700. Just the dealers here on MTC placed well in excess of 5k orders (and they represent less than 1% of all Ford dealers).

 

[Syntax Error]

I think we really can't know unless if Ford publishes just how many retail orders came out during the short order bank, and which percentage of that is for the Hybrid model. If, say, the retail orders numbered around 50,000, and 80% of that are Hybrid, then yes, that would mean ~40,000 Hybrids ordered out of a theoretical production run of 100,000 Mavericks for MY2023, and that would be close to the 35/65 split of the Hybrids to Ecoboost, assuming afterwards the dealer inventory orders are all pretty much for basic model Ecoboosts.

But if there were like 70,000-100,000 retail orders placed in the 2023 retail window, then that would mean those of us who ordered Hybrids are just purely luck-of-the-draw.

It all depends on how many retail orders were placed during the window.

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