How Quickly Will The 2023 Maverick Sell Out

[Stevieray]

How quickly do you think the 2023 Maverick will sell out and Ford will stop taking orders? I waited too long to pull the trigger on ordering a 2022 and alredy have a deposit at a dealership for the 2023.

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[Old Ranchero]

Depends how many Ford thinks they can sell, produce, and reliably get parts for. 3 unknowns, but most industry people say supply chains will still be hosed and chip shortages through much of 2023. I'll take a wild guess they'll leave orders open until End of year or 100k orders submitted- whichever comes 1st, then evaluate where they stand against their internal predictions. Then expext a price bump starting January 2023 for any further orders.

 

[adsandiego]

very quickly.

 

[Charles]

He who hesitates is lost.

 

[VectorsForDelay]

I think it sold out 06/2021

 

[Area51BS]

I think it sold out 06/2021

Agree! Sold out for the foreseeable future.

 

[Jakb]

The market is cooling down, but gas is still expensive, cars are hard to find and plenty of buyers are fed up with ADM's.

I'm pretty sure dealers promising a no ADM are gonna see a significant amount of orders.

I would be surprised if they don't hit 100k by EOY, especially with 20-30k orders rolling over from MY2022

 

[James D]

Depends how many Ford thinks they can sell, produce, and reliably get parts for. 3 unknowns, but most industry people say supply chains will still be hosed and chip shortages through much of 2023. I'll take a wild guess they'll leave orders open until End of year or 100k orders submitted- whichever comes 1st, then evaluate where they stand against their internal predictions. Then expext a price bump starting January 2023 for any further orders.

Hi Ranchero, I like your posts. Your 100k estimated build capacity is probably close with supply issues and the factory shared with the Bronco Sport. My understanding is 6k per month = 72k/yr. If they can increase to 10k per month = 120k per yr. So 100k Mav builds seems reasonable.

A big problem for new orders is Ford keeps quiet about how many 2022s are left to build. I know 2 people who ordered hybrids June 2021 ahead of the long line with no special requests that are still not scheduled. Based on these people still waiting, Vectors from CO could be right, the Maverick (hybrid at least) really sold out in the first month.

For all we know, there still might be 50k Mavs that get pushed to 2023MY. Even if somehow zero 2022s get pushed to 2023s, now that millions more know the Maverick exists, there are probably already 100,000 people waiting for the morning of Sept 15 (including thousands of flippers). My bet is 2023 MY orders will close in days, not months.

 

[Shay]

I would not wait too long. There is pent up demand now, meaning people ready to order 23's as well as 22 model year orders to be converted. Would not be surprised if orders stop by January or February like last year - Hybrids by November.

 

[xplorguy]

Five to Eight days.

 

[Chicolini]

Five to Eight days.

I agree.
Get 'em while they're hot!

 

[theway-yay-ting]

Hi Ranchero, I like your posts. Your 100k estimated build capacity is probably close with supply issues and the factory shared with the Bronco Sport. My understanding is 6k per month = 72k/yr. If they can increase to 10k per month = 120k per yr. So 100k Mav builds seems reasonable.

A big problem for new orders is Ford keeps quiet about how many 2022s are left to build. I know 2 people who ordered hybrids June 2021 ahead of the long line with no special requests that are still not scheduled. Based on these people still waiting, Vectors from CO could be right, the Maverick (hybrid at least) really sold out in the first month.

For all we know, there still might be 50k Mavs that get pushed to 2023MY. Even if somehow zero 2022s get pushed to 2023s, now that millions more know the Maverick exists, there are probably already 100,000 people waiting for the morning of Sept 15 (including thousands of flippers). My bet is 2023 MY orders will close in days, not months.

They've already issued 105k VINs for MY22, and they're still not done scheduling. The big wildcard is truly how much the supply chain recovers (or continues on the same path). Keep in mind, production volume this year was dramatically impacted not only by supply chain issues, but also in delays incurred dealing with typical first model year gremlins (bad wiring harness, gas tank damage from incorrect spray-in bedliner procedures, mods required to stave off engine fires, etc.).

This would tend to suggest that production numbers for MY23 should increase, but the other thing to keep in mind is that a typical model year production run would usually end closer to late September, but due to all the delays, MY22 Maverick production is running into November. This means, if they try to get back onto the old cycle next year, this extension of MY22 production will cut into MY23 volume. Even at 10k per month, if they produce From mid-Nov 2022 to even mid-Oct 2023, that's roughly 110k trucks.

The only saving grace of my order getting rolled over is that it will supposedly get built before that wave of pent-up demand crashes into Hermosillo. I'll believe it when I see it, though!

 

[jsus]

I figure they're already sold out. Be pleasantly surprised if you get an order in given the backlog - don't delay on that.

Note that unless you enter into a binding agreement with a dealer, you can back out later should you change your mind. Thus it's no risk to get your order in right away; there's risk in waiting that you'll be too late.

 

[Old Ranchero]

Hi Ranchero, I like your posts. Your 100k estimated build capacity is probably close with supply issues and the factory shared with the Bronco Sport. My understanding is 6k per month = 72k/yr. If they can increase to 10k per month = 120k per yr. So 100k Mav builds seems reasonable.

A big problem for new orders is Ford keeps quiet about how many 2022s are left to build. I know 2 people who ordered hybrids June 2021 ahead of the long line with no special requests that are still not scheduled. Based on these people still waiting, Vectors from CO could be right, the Maverick (hybrid at least) really sold out in the first month.

For all we know, there still might be 50k Mavs that get pushed to 2023MY. Even if somehow zero 2022s get pushed to 2023s, now that millions more know the Maverick exists, there are probably already 100,000 people waiting for the morning of Sept 15 (including thousands of flippers). My bet is 2023 MY orders will close in days, not months.

I don't think there will be anywhere near 50k 2022s not getting built as 22s. I would bet less than 1/2 that and we can actually verify for sure by simply taking the actual numbers produced since start of production Ford publishes in monthly readouts and subtracting that from the total VINs issued like theway-yay-ting has been monitoring. Most of them not getting built will be due to constrained items requiring parts that haven't shown up in time from vendors. CP360 keeps having shortages, hybrids have had shortages repeatedly, even "Full size" spares and mud flaps have been constrained during production run this year, etc.

Monthly build capacity can always be increased by adding overtime and shifts. They could build another complete production line in Hermosillo if demand called for it -IF- they have all the parts- and that has been more than anything responsible for not seeing bigger monthly production rates all year IMO.

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