Selling in a year. Less depreciation with XL or Lariat Lux?

[greenweever]

I plan to keep the Maverick for one year. Do you think (percentage wise) the XL or Lariat Lux would depreciate more?

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[tebowed]

Prepare to get preached to about waisting money. To answer your question, I think the XL will depreciate less.

 

[kw86er]

XL

 

[93nighthawk]

Both will appreciate. Depreciation of vehicles is a thing of the past.

 

[Mr.T]

I think they will depreciate at the same rate, meaning the higher price vehicle will lose more money. In a years time things should get back to normal for pricing.

 

[Bushpilot]

Both will appreciate. Depreciation of vehicles is a thing of the past.

^^ Not this ^^

I think they will depreciate at the same rate, meaning the higher price vehicle will lose more money. In a years time things should get back to normal for pricing.

^^ This ^^

 

[MortyHooper]

^^ Not this ^^

^^ This ^^

93Nighthawk is just riffing on the current insanity of the used vehicle market, i found it humorous, and exciting.

 

[MattIngram]

I plan to keep the Maverick for one year. Do you think (percentage wise) the XL or Lariat Lux would depreciate more?

Under normal depreciation, I’d pick the XL solely because it has a lower base over the same span of time, meaning less depreciation. XLT is more desirable b/c people like middle of the road in general, so may pay additional premium in the secondary. But XLT will still have higher depreciation than the XL b/c more value to lose. Lariat/luxury will have the most value to lose and depreciate faster than the xlt or lariat. Yeah people love the bells and whistles but don’t like to pay for them.

Some folks are playing car lottery but that won’t last forever and I expect depreciation to make a return In 2022. A one year truck is a gamble, and most are forecasting the chip shortage to end mid 2022. And I’d follow the Ford earnings calls to better understand, when they expect to return to normal b/c that 30% drop will hurt if and when the price relationship between used and new returns to normal. Don’t get stuck with a dutch tulip you can’t sell.

 

[volksnuts]

I’ve been saying the same ^^
people buying new cars right now should plan to keep them for a while as once production gets caught up we won’t have to order/pay MSRP anymore
Used car market will eventually go back to normal a little after that happens

I paid $14k under sticker for my F150 in 2019, and it’s an XL/STX
Prediction is in 2023 you’d be able to walk onto the lot and negotiate something similar
What will that mean for used car values?
They will tank
Especially with all the people that overextended themselves to buy new in 21/22

 

[93nighthawk]

The used car market has been out of wack sense cash-for-clunkers, the world shutdowns and lack of production has exasperated the situation to the n'th degree.

Please explain why everything keeps saying things will get back to pre-pan production? The chip shortage was suppose to end Q2 of 2021. Yet people are aspousing that it will be fixed around Q2/Q3 of 2022. Accross the board, manufacturing is down. There are massive labor shortages. And don't forget all the trillions of dollars printed. It all will catch up with us and will not be fixed in 6 months, it will take a decade at least if nothing else happens.

 

[olderbudwiser]

The used car market has been out of wack sense cash-for-clunkers, the world shutdowns and lack of production has exasperated the situation to the n'th degree.

Please explain why everything keeps saying things will get back to pre-pan production? The chip shortage was suppose to end Q2 of 2021. Yet people are aspousing that it will be fixed around Q2/Q3 of 2022. Accross the board, manufacturing is down. There are massive labor shortages. And don't forget all the trillions of dollars printed. It all will catch up with us and will not be fixed in 6 months, it will take a decade at least if nothing else happens.

I think we will be OK, heard 2 more printing presses are on order. Money will flying off the shelves.

 

[ITSATRUCK]

If inflation is unofficial 18 percent. My bet is on not much less if taken care of with not crazy miles.

Another wild card is 2023 pricing.

 

[dalola]

Generally, the higher the MSRP, the greater the short-term depreciation. Of course, there are always exceptions and nuances, not to mention the crazy market conditions right now.

Rather, I would focus on getting the truck you'll most enjoy for a year.

 

[MattIngram]

The used car market has been out of wack sense cash-for-clunkers, the world shutdowns and lack of production has exasperated the situation to the n'th degree.

Please explain why everything keeps saying things will get back to pre-pan production? The chip shortage was suppose to end Q2 of 2021. Yet people are aspousing that it will be fixed around Q2/Q3 of 2022. Accross the board, manufacturing is down. There are massive labor shortages. And don't forget all the trillions of dollars printed. It all will catch up with us and will not be fixed in 6 months, it will take a decade at least if nothing else happens.

Couldn’t disagree more, cash for clunkers started around 2009 and has nothing to do with today’s disconnect between new and used vehicle values. The effects of cash for clunkers have long since dissipated. The current shortage and impacts to secondary/used market occurred around a year ago. Used cars values have risen almost 30%, essentially putting them on par with new car values, or so says car and driver.

https://www.caranddriver.com/news/amp36638746/used-cars-biggest-price-increases/

There’s no aspousing, or espousing or anything else to it. What is going on is a number of analysts are predicting when shortages will subside but they’re really guesses. Ford also makes some forecasts (more guesses) too on their earnings call. But what happens to secondary/used car values won’t be a guess. When consumers are able to choose between new and used, all things being equal (including price), they will choose new if available. The price of used cars will have to drop to reach a new equilibrium with less demand and more supply, essentially giving back that 30%, or so says KBB.

https://www.kbb.com/car-news/a-used-car-price-bubble-new-report-says-yes/

Also, interest rates are rising this year, Fed is predicting/guessing three interest rate hikes for 2022, lowering demand, increasing supply of both new and used vehicles. That also causes vehicle values to fall even more.

 

[MarcusBrody]

I'm not sure why you're focusing on percentage depreciation as the cost of ownership for one year is about absolute depreciation. As folks have said, even if the XL depreciates more in terms of percentage, you're still likely to lose less money on having it short term as it's a lot cheaper. Depreciation would have to be 50% higher on the XL to make it even close.

Let's say that selling prices are 23k for the XL and 33k for the Lariat Lux (I'll assume ecoboost as I doubt many hybrids are available within a year). If they both depreciate 10%, you're losing ~1k more on the Lariat Lux. For it to be roughly comparable, you'd need the XL to depreciate 15% and the Lariat to only depreciate 10%.

But that ignores some other things in favor of the XL. When you buy the truck, you'll need to pay sales tax on it. You won't get that back when you sell it, so the Lariat is going to be more expensive up front in a way that won't be reflected in depreciation. If that could be a $5-800 difference depending on state.

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