Maverick Sales Total 11,956 in August 2025, up 16.4%

[ClemsonU88]

I never said I gleaned it from this data but let’s do some basic math.

The most recent official figure of median household income from the US Census Bureau is for 2023 and that number was $80,610. That was a few years ago though and people tend to get raises year over year so let’s be generous and assume that they receive a raises that aligned to the CPI which was 4.1% for 2023 and 3.4% for 2024. That would place their current income at $86K.

Monthly take-home is generally accepted to be 75-80% of gross, and frankly that is also rather generous. Let’s assume 80%. That’s $68,800 which works out to about $2,650 per pay period.

A conservative car payment is generally accepted to be around 10% of take home pay. In this case that would equate to $529. Let’s call it $530.

Total transportation costs should generally not exceed 20% of take home pay. To be clear, total transportation cost includes the car payment, insurance, fuel, and maintenance. In this case, that equates to $1,030.

The 20/4/10 rule is the most common rule used by financial experts when determining a budget to buy a car.

• 20%down payment
• Finance for 4 years or less
• Total transportation costs should not exceed 10% of your gross monthly income.

So working backward from a $530 payment (10% of a monthly net income of $5,292) on a four year loan with a 7.2% interest rate (Q22025 average) the average household earning the median income can afford a car loan of around $24k. With a 20% down payment, the total cost should not exceed $29K. Surprise! That’s right where the Mav sits in pricing. How curious.

KBB pegs the average new vehicle transaction price (ATP) at $48,841for July 2025 (https://www.kbb.com/car-news/new-car-prices-stayed-largely-steady-in-july/#:~:text=The average American new car,the rest of North America.)

That is far and above what the average us household earning the median income can sustainably carry. Now if that’s true, how is it that the ATP is $48.8K when all they can afford is $29k?

Stupid long terms. Ridiculously high notes. Overly lax underwriting standards from lenders who are approving buyers for amounts that are 15-20% of gross income which is well above a prudent and reasonable standard. In fairness to that wicked high ATP, many households also roll negative equity from their previous loan into the new loan, which skews the ATP high and that’s dumb for all kinds of obvious reasons but I digress.

An $80k household cannot afford a $50K car. Not without making massive financial sacrifices that will cripple them. $1,000+ car payments for 84 months is not normal and not sustainable.

Excellent analysis, but it holds to the 20 (possibly 30) year old notion that people should get a 4 year loan. What's so magical about a 48 month loan? Don't get me wrong, I hate all debt! A one year loan is 12 months too long for me.

BUT if you're going to go into debt, is 5 years really that much worse than 4 years? If so, why not make 3 years the standard? Because 3 years is unreasonable with today's car prices? Some might make the same argument with 4 year loans.

Here's the best car buying advice I ever got. When you do finally pay off your vehicle, keep making that payment to a savings account. You could save enough money in 3 years to buy a new car, because you're getting the interest instead of paying it to the lender. Once you have enough saved up for a new car, keep making payments to the savings account! Then you'll have money for when your car breaks down. It's a get rich slow scheme, but it works!!

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[pigsareus]

Need to know profit margin on each model. If you have a small margin ( Maverick ?) you need to sell more cars. Also, it seems the volume reflects that people are not put-off by the pricing. The Maverick is still a low-cost purchase in the car world. My Lobo was < 40K out the door. I feel I got a good deal for my money.

they make their money on the upgrades - at 30K for the base xl they're making an ok profit on that considering just years back it was almost 10K less. They love when customers load them up with option and get out the door for 40K there's at least an additional 5k profit in that.

 

[pigsareus]

Interesting. Around me the trucks are sitting. I check daily.

the good thing is that if mavs are sitting on the lot then in a few months when the 25s start hitting the lots at approx the same price then the 24s should get a price cut, so hang on if you're looking to save some $

 

[mapnerd]

Excellent analysis, but it holds to the 20 (possibly 30) year old notion that people should get a 4 year loan. What's so magical about a 48 month loan? Don't get me wrong, I hate all debt! A one year loan is 12 months too long for me.

BUT if you're going to go into debt, is 5 years really that much worse than 4 years? If so, why not make 3 years the standard? Because 3 years is unreasonable with today's car prices? Some might make the same argument with 4 year loans.

Here's the best car buying advice I ever got. When you do finally pay off your vehicle, keep making that payment to a savings account. You could save enough money in 3 years to buy a new car, because you're getting the interest instead of paying it to the lender. Once you have enough saved up for a new car, keep making payments to the savings account! Then you'll have money for when your car breaks down. It's a get rich slow scheme, but it works!!

Just because rules of thumb are old, does not mean they are wrong but I would agree that there's no magic to a 4-year loan (imo) other than it's pretty obvious that the longer you are servicing debt, the longer you are undermining your ability to build wealth. I think the specific 4-year number - though this is speculative - likely is based on the average standard manufacturer warranty duration. Ford is a little under that at 3/36K which I personally think is a joke. RAM CEO recently stated they are going to bump their warranty to 10/100K iirc. Not sure if GM is doing anything or what their warranty is as I don't really pay much attention to them.

The advice you received is excellent, but unfortunately not a lot of people have the financial discipline to do that. I personally drove a 2004 Ford Ranger that I bought new when I graduated high school for 21 years all the way to 250,000 miles. I've had many other Fords (Taurus, Mustang, Edge, F150) along the way but the Ranger was the vehicle that never, ever let me down until finally started giving me regular issues earlier this year. Few people are willing to commit to living like that. Their lifestyles and needs change, and they can't/won't adapt to the realities of their situation, refuse to recognize the reality, or just cannot resist the shiny new thing. To each their own. I'm not condemning them or vilifying their decisions. Just sort of shaking my head in disbelief.

 

[mapnerd]

the good thing is that if mavs are sitting on the lot then in a few months when the 25s start hitting the lots at approx the same price then the 24s should get a price cut, so hang on if you're looking to save some $

The discounts are already there for some dealers (some have not yet come to Jesus). I got out the door for $31K on a '24 Maverick Lariat Tremor that had an MSRP of $40K. With MY26 order books opening soon, lots of MY24s and MY25's still on the lot (which was due to a 6-month stop sale due to a software issue with the backup camera), any dealer with MY24 Mavs is looking at taking a bath real soon.

They have few choices - load it up with high margin dealer addons and sell it to a retail customer well below invoice hoping to make it up in the finance office (bad), or pray to the good lord for a fleet sale (worse), take it to auction (worst). The longer a dealer holds, the worse it gets for them. Ford did give dealers floorpan assistance during the stop sale to limit the blood loss, but the next quarter is going to hurt those who have built up these Maverick museums.

When I was shopping just a few weeks ago, my local dealer had 24 MY24 Mavs on the lot, 17 of them Lariats, 11 of those 17 were Tremors. God help them.

 

[Glen Baker LLC]

Excellent analysis, but it holds to the 20 (possibly 30) year old notion that people should get a 4 year loan. What's so magical about a 48 month loan? Don't get me wrong, I hate all debt! A one year loan is 12 months too long for me.

BUT if you're going to go into debt, is 5 years really that much worse than 4 years? If so, why not make 3 years the standard? Because 3 years is unreasonable with today's car prices? Some might make the same argument with 4 year loans.

Here's the best car buying advice I ever got. When you do finally pay off your vehicle, keep making that payment to a savings account. You could save enough money in 3 years to buy a new car, because you're getting the interest instead of paying it to the lender. Once you have enough saved up for a new car, keep making payments to the savings account! Then you'll have money for when your car breaks down. It's a get rich slow scheme, but it works!!

I don't mind DEBT as long as I'm making money on it. By using someone else's money.
Starting in the 80s, when I was able to pay off my first new car in 24 months.
I took the payroll deductible $500 car payments and had them deposited into the credit union. We were living fine making those car payments, so I didn't think we would miss that $500 if it went into the credit union. That alone has allowed me to self Finance every car we purchased since then,
Unless I was able to get discount financing that was lower than my investments. The best part about agreeing to dealer financing is that most times you get a better price on the vehicle. Even if you end up paying it off after one or two months.
Having a great credit score also helps.

 

[Cherokee]

Post #31, well said !

 

[JHMaverick]

Maverick is still a good buy. They have added content and unfortunately have to deal with tariff costs because of it's Mexican production so price increases inevitable. As far as Lincoln, their vehicles are really well done. The new Nautilus is doing very well as is the redesigned Navigator. Lincoln vehicles are competitive but the brand has to find a fresh identity.

 

[pigsareus]

The discounts are already there for some dealers (some have not yet come to Jesus). I got out the door for $31K on a '24 Maverick Lariat Tremor that had an MSRP of $40K. With MY26 order books opening soon, lots of MY24s and MY25's still on the lot (which was due to a 6-month stop sale due to a software issue with the backup camera), any dealer with MY24 Mavs is looking at taking a bath real soon.

They have few choices - load it up with high margin dealer addons and sell it to a retail customer well below invoice hoping to make it up in the finance office (bad), or pray to the good lord for a fleet sale (worse), take it to auction (worst). The longer a dealer holds, the worse it gets for them. Ford did give dealers floorpan assistance during the stop sale to limit the blood loss, but the next quarter is going to hurt those who have built up these Maverick museums.

When I was shopping just a few weeks ago, my local dealer had 24 MY24 Mavs on the lot, 17 of them Lariats, 11 of those 17 were Tremors. God help them.

wish some dealer around me would drop the prices in the next couple weeks - I'd be happy to sell my '22 xl and pick up a new 25 xl for about 26-7k , that'd save me from dropping 2k on the extended warranty. Every mav around me is pretty much list price

 

[pigsareus]

Maverick is still a good buy. They have added content and unfortunately have to deal with tariff costs because of it's Mexican production so price increases inevitable. As far as Lincoln, their vehicles are really well done. The new Nautilus is doing very well as is the redesigned Navigator. Lincoln vehicles are competitive but the brand has to find a fresh identity.

'26 prices are essentially the same as 25s, no tariff affect.

 

[JHMaverick]

Look at Ford's bottom line. They are having to write off $1.9 billion in tariff costs in the first half of the year. Prices have to go up to cover those costs. Not being political, stating facts.

 

[pigsareus]

Look at Ford's bottom line. They are having to write off $1.9 billion in tariff costs in the first half of the year. Prices have to go up to cover those costs. Not being political, stating facts.

they don't jack up their EV prices when they lose $5 Billion a year (as they have for the last 4-5 years) on them as a matter of fact they lower the prices sometimes.

 

[mapnerd]

wish some dealer around me would drop the prices in the next couple weeks - I'd be happy to sell my '22 xl and pick up a new 25 xl for about 26-7k , that'd save me from dropping 2k on the extended warranty. Every mav around me is pretty much list price

MY25's aren't going to discount that heavily. The difference between a MY25 and a MY26 is not that substantial. The difference between a MY24 and an MY24 is more considerable (design refresh, sync 4). MY24s will be where the deep discounts are.

 

[Hot Runr Guy]

The discounts are already there for some dealers (some have not yet come to Jesus). I got out the door for $31K on a '24 Maverick Lariat Tremor that had an MSRP of $40K.

Honestly, I'd have to see the paperwork to believe that number. You'd have to be in the neighborhood of $29K pre-tax, or a 25% discount off of MSRP. Unless you're failing to disclose a trade-in or a hefty cash down payment.

HRG

 

[pigsareus]

MY25's aren't going to discount that heavily. The difference between a MY25 and a MY26 is not that substantial. The difference between a MY24 and an MY24 is more considerable (design refresh, sync 4). MY24s will be where the deep discounts are.

all the 24s are gone around me, just 25s. Just thinking that if there's 25s on the lot and 26s start arriving then if the prices are the same the sane customer would take the '26, leaving the 25s to just sit around and age unless they drop the price on them. Alternately I guess the dealer could jack up the 26 prices and keep the 25s at list. Be interesting to see what happens.

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