Exceedingly Long Oversimplified Explanation of Maverick Order Allocations

[tdonch]

Excellent write up and summary. I completely agree with your assessments and conclusions.

However, I feel compelled to say that Ford IMO messed up when halfway through MY22 they made the announcement of changing to assigning VINs with a first in-first out queue model, which tells me they know the allocation system is not right for this new world of having a majority of custom orders populating the order banks. As someone new to Ford, it tipped me off that my order was not being processed in the way that I expected, since no one set me down at the dealership and explained how allocations worked.

After lurking on this forum, my dealership could not explain how or when my hybrid order would be selected when we switched back to an allocation system in MY23. Plus, the amount of cancelled MY22 VINs being pushed back on the order banks for my dealership in MY23 was a huge number that took over 4 months to work through, while I saw other new MY23 orders being fulfilled at other dealerships in the area at that time. So, the issue of uneven VIN assignment was something that was happening at the beginning of last model year. It depended on the dealership.

I understand the frustration, because I felt it myself having to wait over 600 days to receive our order. But it does seem a little better this year and folks should be grateful they are not dealing with the cancelled VINs issue we had to wait through at the beginning of MY23.

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[commadorebob]

Excellent write up and summary. I completely agree with your assessments and conclusions.

However, I feel compelled to say that Ford IMO messed up when halfway through MY22 they made the announcement of changing to assigning VINs with a first in-first out queue model, which tells me they know the allocation system is not right for this new world of having a majority of custom orders populating the order banks. As someone new to Ford, it tipped me off that my order was not being processed in the way that I expected, since no one set me down at the dealership and explained how allocations worked.

After lurking on this forum, my dealership could not explain how or when my hybrid order would be selected when we switched back to an allocation system in MY23. Plus, the amount of cancelled MY22 VINs being pushed back on the order banks for my dealership in MY23 was a huge number that took over 4 months to work through, while I saw other new MY23 orders being fulfilled at other dealerships in the area at that time. So, the issue of uneven VIN assignment was something that was happening at the beginning of last model year. It depended on the dealership.

I understand the frustration, because I felt it myself having to wait over 600 days to receive our order. But it does seem a little better this year and folks should be grateful they are not dealing with the cancelled VINs issue we had to wait through at the beginning of MY23.

I think the reservation system used with Lightning would have been a better approach. At least then the Maverick retail orders are FIFO but dealers can still get their allocations. However, by the time Ford would be able to implement that, the order density should decrease to a point it is no longer needed.

Lessons learned.

 

[Old Man]

Bob, you aren't suppose to use logic, common sense and reality on this forum. We want half-truths, conspiracy, falsehoods and half-baked ideas on how to run an international company. That helps us focus our anger and frustration on someone.

On the real life side, back a few years ago when I was ordering/driving Jeep Wranglers I read a study done by the business school of the University of Ohio - Toledo (where Wranglers are built) about supply chain management. Jeep had a system with tiered suppliers. Critical suppliers were on the grounds of the Jeep plant (I think Hermosillo has one of them on their grounds also). Next level suppliers had to be within so many miles (like 100 or so) of the plant with traffic routes to the plant that did not have railroad crossings. Those suppliers could be supplied by other plants around the world but had to have final assembly there. That included things such as dashboards, seats. Final level could be around the world but had to have plans and processes to supply parts in a timely manner. Big ones were engines and transmissions plus wiring, nuts, bolts, clips, etc.

So it was JIT, kind of. JIT works in a perfect world like ours. With pitfalls. Like supply chain disruption, Covid, strikes (like UAW which just voted to strike). If a company can forecast demand accurately - not done well with Maverick. Don't run into material constraints like batteries - everyone has that constraint. It does help reduce waste when a product turns out to be bad - you don't have 2,000,000 bads ones sitting in the warehouse.

Thanks for the write-up. Doubt it will assuage many.

 

[commadorebob]

Bob, you aren't suppose to use logic, common sense and reality on this forum. We want half-truths, conspiracy, falsehoods and half-baked ideas on how to run an international company. That helps us focus our anger and frustration on someone.

On the real life side, back a few years ago when I was ordering/driving Jeep Wranglers I read a study done by the business school of the University of Ohio - Toledo (where Wranglers are built) about supply chain management. Jeep had a system with tiered suppliers. Critical suppliers were on the grounds of the Jeep plant (I think Hermosillo has one of them on their grounds also). Next level suppliers had to be within so many miles (like 100 or so) of the plant with traffic routes to the plant that did not have railroad crossings. Those suppliers could be supplied by other plants around the world but had to have final assembly there. That included things such as dashboards, seats. Final level could be around the world but had to have plans and processes to supply parts in a timely manner. Big ones were engines and transmissions plus wiring, nuts, bolts, clips, etc.

So it was JIT, kind of. JIT works in a perfect world like ours. With pitfalls. Like supply chain disruption, Covid, strikes (like UAW which just voted to strike). If a company can forecast demand accurately - not done well with Maverick. Don't run into material constraints like batteries - everyone has that constraint. It does help reduce waste when a product turns out to be bad - you don't have 2,000,000 bads ones sitting in the warehouse.

Thanks for the write-up. Doubt it will assuage many.

I wrote it mainly because there have been a lot of questions about how allocation works. Not everyone will feel great about it and the magic sauce for earning an allocation is still up in the air. But at least when we say, "allocations is king" people will understand why that is.

 

[colinl]

The Ford of today is not the Ford of just a few years ago. Not that long ago, a dealer could order vehicles for inventory "on the lot". They knew what sold in their market, and what they could sell. So there was no problem ordering cars and trucks to have on display since they knew they could sell them.

I'm told that today, a dealer has to have a customer order before they can order a vehicle, so no more "ordering for the lot". I cannot believe that is 100% true but that's my understanding; however my dealer in Michigan also said that Ford was building ill-specified F-series that my dealer couldn't easily sell in his market. They couldn't get the trucks they needed due to...yeah, supply constraints.

The entire allocation nonsense caused in part by covid and also in part by just bad management decisions (single source suppliers) has thrown a huge wrench into the works. So none of the old rules of a just a few years ago completely apply. We used to routinely order vehicles and it was rarely more than a 4-8 week period from order to delivery. That's ancient history today.

As for the JIT, well that's not exactly true. It's more a game with accounting than anything else. Ask anyone who has worked in automotive manufacturing. Textbook JIT simply doesn't work. You cannot risk shutting down an assembly line because a tractor trailer overturned, or there was a snowstorm or whatever. What is more likely is that the suppliers carry the burden of inventory. Parts are shipped to the assembly plant but not booked until the manufacturer retrieves them. This was explained to me years ago by a friend in manufacturing at Wixom Assembly (now long gone) when I asked why there were HUNDREDS of trailers in the parking lot. He laughed and explained that it's the "parts warehouse", and that as items are needed for manufacturing they are fetched from the trailers and then booked as shipped/received. But to think that there's finely tuned machine like the Swiss trains with trucks arriving just in time or JIT as they are needed, well, that wouldn't really work.

We're all just venting because we are all tired of the new reality.

that's a bunch of good thoughts. the line must run. employees are going to be paid, possibly even if there's a shutdown, so the opportunity cost of not running something down the assembly line is very high.

that's why they're making F-150s that don't match the spec of desired stock orders or customer retail orders and it's not hard to imagine that is happening with Mavericks also. this is why some stock units (green window stickers) got built as we near the end of MY23 production. they had excess capacity for ecoboost and dealerships still with ecoboost retail orders were either out of allocations, or had configurations that couldn't be built.

 

[colinl]

Excellent write up and summary. I completely agree with your assessments and conclusions.

However, I feel compelled to say that Ford IMO messed up when halfway through MY22 they made the announcement of changing to assigning VINs with a first in-first out queue model, which tells me they know the allocation system is not right for this new world of having a majority of custom orders populating the order banks. As someone new to Ford, it tipped me off that my order was not being processed in the way that I expected, since no one set me down at the dealership and explained how allocations worked.

After lurking on this forum, my dealership could not explain how or when my hybrid order would be selected when we switched back to an allocation system in MY23. Plus, the amount of cancelled MY22 VINs being pushed back on the order banks for my dealership in MY23 was a huge number that took over 4 months to work through, while I saw other new MY23 orders being fulfilled at other dealerships in the area at that time. So, the issue of uneven VIN assignment was something that was happening at the beginning of last model year. It depended on the dealership.

I understand the frustration, because I felt it myself having to wait over 600 days to receive our order. But it does seem a little better this year and folks should be grateful they are not dealing with the cancelled VINs issue we had to wait through at the beginning of MY23.

they temporarily gave some preference to order date in MY22 to try to get more of the early orders done, at the expense of later orders. (but not too late; order banks closed in December for first edition, January for all hybrid, and March '22 for everything.)

it was still not FIFO. it was still allocation. one line per dealership.

 

[MABarb]

Ok, so my dealer had 14 allocations. He had 9 rollovers, one of which is mine. One got scheduled yesterday. What are my chances of getting my magic ticket next month?

If I am following correctly, the dealer will get about 1 1/6 mavericks scheduled a month. Figuring all 9 of the rollovers are priority 2, I should be the first 9 for our dealer, but we will still be competing against each other for a monthly slot. 9 / 1.1667 = 7.75 months for all of the rollovers to get built.

I could potentially be scheduled in Apr 16, 2024 with the 50/50 date of Dec 22, 2023.

My sister ordered a MY 2024 EB with no rollover two days after me from a larger dealer. My guess is she will be scheduled before me.

I realize the early customers waited close to 2 years and I do not wish to bark at anyone on this forum, but this is a horrible way to treat customers that have hung with you 11 months.

 

[tdonch]

they temporarily gave some preference to order date in MY22 to try to get more of the early orders done, at the expense of later orders. (but not too late; order banks closed in December for first edition, January for all hybrid, and March '22 for everything.)

it was still not FIFO. it was still allocation. one line per dealership.

That may be what Ford was in fact doing. However, Ford was announcing they would process MY22 orders in the order received. I took notice of this announcement (see below) since I had been waiting almost 6 months at that point.

Ford Authority: 2022 Ford Maverick orders now being scheduled when they're received

 

[itzyoboipaul]

Ok, so my dealer had 14 allocations. He had 9 rollovers, one of which is mine. One got scheduled yesterday. What are my chances of getting my magic ticket next month?

If I am following correctly, the dealer will get about 1 1/6 mavericks scheduled a month. Figuring all 9 of the rollovers are priority 2, I should be the first 9 for our dealer, but we will still be competing against each other for a monthly slot. 9 / 1.1667 = 7.75 months for all of the rollovers to get built.

I could potentially be scheduled in Apr 16, 2024 with the 50/50 date of Dec 22, 2023.

My sister ordered a MY 2024 EB with no rollover two days after me from a larger dealer. My guess is she will be scheduled before me.

I realize the early customers waited close to 2 years and I do not wish to bark at anyone on this forum, but this is a horrible way to treat customers that have hung with you 11 months.

This is what im thinking also. My unicorn XL hybrid ordered Sept 2022 from a smaller dealership. My friend ordered his hybrid lariat same day, same dealer and also didnt get scheduled. Dont know if ours will ever get built. I texted the rep yesterday and he told me ONE of their mavericks got scheduled. ONE

 

[MABarb]

As an addendum to my previous rant, those are scheduling dates. The date of manufacture will probably be 6 weeks from the scheduling date. Add another 6 weeks for the truck to leave the factory and get to the dealership, I am looking at another year of waiting.

I have a 16 year old that is waiting for me to replace the car I am driving so he can take over my old car.

 

[PriusHater]

Nice explanation, although it raises one related question. If a dealership has 325 carryover ‘23 orders and only are allocated 325 new trucks for 2024, does that mean they are getting ZERO MY24 Mavericks? And if not, why not?

 

[commadorebob]

Nice explanation, although it raises one related question. If a dealership has 325 carryover ‘23 orders and only are allocated 325 new trucks for 2024, does that mean they are getting ZERO MY24 Mavericks? And if not, why not?

They took no new orders. So, to answer your question, maybe. Simply because Ford admitted to dealers that their annual allocation counts provided last month only made up 80% of Ford's planned production. So, there is a chance Ford provides more allocations as the year goes along.

 

[Greg_in_GA]

A couple of things to add which are mostly pure speculation on my part.

1) Transportation has been a big constraint and is also scheduled far in advance and involves multiple components like space on trains, space in rail yards, and a truck and driver to deliver it from the final railyard to the dealership. If these cannot be scheduled then it is unlikely that a Maverick will be scheduled to be built since it would just sit in Hermosillo or some random railyard halfway to its destination. It also costs a lot less to ship a Maverick to some place like Texas, Arizona, or Southern California than it does to ship it to some place like New England which is a lot farther away and Ford gets to pocket the savings.

2) It would be naive to think that both the dealership and Ford don't give priority to higher margin Mavericks.

3) The allocation process has changed frequently in the past and likely will change again in the future.

 

[Esteban88]

That may be what Ford was in fact doing. However, Ford was announcing they would process MY22 orders in the order received. I took notice of this announcement (see below) since I had been waiting almost 6 months at that point.

Ford Authority: 2022 Ford Maverick orders now being scheduled when they're received

Here's a quote from that article: '...orders are scheduled in the order in which they are received, regardless of dealer, pending any capacity and commodity limitations. Oldest Maverick retail orders are prioritized first.."

So when did Ford stop doing this...prioritizing oldest orders regardless of dealer?

 

[Huchipapa]

Technically Long McArthur is not a large dealership. I was born and raised in Salina and lived there 40 years of my life and I have seen much larger dealerships than what they are. They are a mid sized dealership at best. They sell lots of certain vehicles, especially trucks. They work hard at what they do and are successful at doing it.

If Tesla sold as many models and variants of those models as Ford FIFO wouldn't work for them either. Having said that I think Ford should scale down their offerings because they clearly have issues keeping up.

No, I believe Ford didn't expect the overwhelming response to the Maverick they got, especially hybrids. As was said, just about anything else they make is readily or shortly available (Ford Transit excepted).

The original MSRP was exceptional; Ford could have started at $5k more and still gotten a strong response for their entry-level vehicle. Even now it still remains a strong value. My only wish for my pending order is that I get it by the holidays (ordered 9/22), and it is as reliable as my last 4 new cars have been. But the weekly game of desperately waiting for a happy email is becoming tiresome I will say.

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