- First Name
- PW
- Joined
- Sep 27, 2021
- Threads
- 21
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- 244
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- 297
- Location
- Asheville NC
- Vehicle(s)
- Chevy S-10
- Engine
- 2.5L Hybrid
- Thread starter
- #1
My best guess is mid-to late February. Below is how arrived at that guesstimate.
Would love to know what others think.
============
My goal is to estimate how much longer before I get a build date. I ordered my truck on Sept 3. XLT Lux with 360. [For the record, my initial guess when I placed my order was end of March.]
What we know from various press statements:
1. There were about 40,000 reservations after first week when it was possible to make a reservation.
2. There was a total of 80,000 reservations around July 28.
3. There were a total of 100,000 reservations as if Aug 23.
We know that Ford apparently planned for a 40%-60% split of orders between hybrid and Ecoboost.
It seems that the actual split is the inverse: 60% Hybrid and 40% EcoBoost.
If true, this would mean of the 100,000 reservations placed by Aug 23 that the estimated number of reservations are:
60,000 Hybrid
40,000 EcoBoost
We know that not every reservation was turned into an actual retail order.
At this point I have to make the following assumption about the ratio of reservations to actual orders. I could assume that they are roughly even. But I am going to say that there was a larger percentage of hybrid reservations turned into orders. The actual count of final orders is not necessarily important but rather the relative number of actual orders. Ford Bronco converted about 65% of their reservations so let's go with that for EcoBoost and say Hybrid is 75% (a guess).
Adjusted counts:
45,000 Hybrid orders
26,000 EcoBoost orders
[Remember it's the proportion that is important here. The actual count could be way off for this tea leaf reading experience.]
We also know that even some EcoBoost orders are getting build dates currently.
To me this seems to indicate that, in some cases, Ford is semi-current for EcoBoost orders. That bodes well for EcoBoost. Congratulations!
But I am interested in Hybrids and when I might get a build date (It is all about me -after Gabbydad, DryHeat, EMD, of course!)
It seems to me that Ford reservations are starting to pick up mid-July orders. Eighty percent of total orders (at the time when I placed my order at least) were placed by end of July. This, the me, means that Ford scheduling is looking for trucks to build from about 80% of the total orders. We also know that there have been and will be more constraints and issues affecting production. So maybe 50% of the 80% being considered have build dates. This means about 18,000 hybrids have build dates. (Remember actual counts are irrelevant.)
Where does this leave me with a Sept 3rd order date? I don't see that Ford scheduling will continue expanding to include later order dates at the same rate. Those overlooked earlier will be scheduled first. Later order dates will only be added if all prior orders filled (generally). To me it feels like Ford Scheduling won't be looking at orders placed after Aug 31st until mid to late February. That means my initial guess of a March delivery date is highly optimistic but not totally without possibility.
What does all this really mean?
I could have played Vincini in the movie The Princess Bride!
Hope the journey was enjoyable!
Would love to know what others think.
============
My goal is to estimate how much longer before I get a build date. I ordered my truck on Sept 3. XLT Lux with 360. [For the record, my initial guess when I placed my order was end of March.]
What we know from various press statements:
1. There were about 40,000 reservations after first week when it was possible to make a reservation.
2. There was a total of 80,000 reservations around July 28.
3. There were a total of 100,000 reservations as if Aug 23.
We know that Ford apparently planned for a 40%-60% split of orders between hybrid and Ecoboost.
It seems that the actual split is the inverse: 60% Hybrid and 40% EcoBoost.
If true, this would mean of the 100,000 reservations placed by Aug 23 that the estimated number of reservations are:
60,000 Hybrid
40,000 EcoBoost
We know that not every reservation was turned into an actual retail order.
At this point I have to make the following assumption about the ratio of reservations to actual orders. I could assume that they are roughly even. But I am going to say that there was a larger percentage of hybrid reservations turned into orders. The actual count of final orders is not necessarily important but rather the relative number of actual orders. Ford Bronco converted about 65% of their reservations so let's go with that for EcoBoost and say Hybrid is 75% (a guess).
Adjusted counts:
45,000 Hybrid orders
26,000 EcoBoost orders
[Remember it's the proportion that is important here. The actual count could be way off for this tea leaf reading experience.]
We also know that even some EcoBoost orders are getting build dates currently.
To me this seems to indicate that, in some cases, Ford is semi-current for EcoBoost orders. That bodes well for EcoBoost. Congratulations!
But I am interested in Hybrids and when I might get a build date (It is all about me -after Gabbydad, DryHeat, EMD, of course!)
It seems to me that Ford reservations are starting to pick up mid-July orders. Eighty percent of total orders (at the time when I placed my order at least) were placed by end of July. This, the me, means that Ford scheduling is looking for trucks to build from about 80% of the total orders. We also know that there have been and will be more constraints and issues affecting production. So maybe 50% of the 80% being considered have build dates. This means about 18,000 hybrids have build dates. (Remember actual counts are irrelevant.)
Where does this leave me with a Sept 3rd order date? I don't see that Ford scheduling will continue expanding to include later order dates at the same rate. Those overlooked earlier will be scheduled first. Later order dates will only be added if all prior orders filled (generally). To me it feels like Ford Scheduling won't be looking at orders placed after Aug 31st until mid to late February. That means my initial guess of a March delivery date is highly optimistic but not totally without possibility.
What does all this really mean?
I could have played Vincini in the movie The Princess Bride!
Hope the journey was enjoyable!
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