$4200 Less For Hybrid vs. 2.0 @ 120,000 miles

[Rob Cactus Gray]

You make a good point, if you are planning on keeping the vehicle long term you have to deduct the cost of battery replacement from your fuel savings. You should still make out and hopefully batteries will be cheaper by then.

I disagree that you should deduct battery cost from fuel savings. Do we add the cost of a turbo replacement on the EcoBoost? Is there a way to know the cost savings of the brake pads, water pump, serpentine belt, oil changes, etc. I couldn’t see this battery costing more than $2k by the time it fails. It bolts up easy to the underside too. Might get incredibly better mileage with an upgraded battery by then. Most of us in 10-12 years will be ready for a new vehicle.

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[brnpttmn]

That's definitely not worth it to me. It's a pittance really. Considering I drive ~12k miles per year, that's ~$400 per year. Almost any lifestyle change I make will overwhelm that. Or it's ~33 per month. Just some change in what I pay for home insurance or something can easily be a bigger monthly swing than that. Or when in yr 9 your mechanic says "you need a new hybrid battery, it's $5000" And I say "bububu, the guys on Maverick Truck club said it would be cheap by now!". That and 20 bucks will buy me dinner, and none of you will be posting here.

It's a small battery that will likely cost a fraction of that, and the same could be said for the EB. What happens when any of the ICE-specific components (transmission, alternator, turbo, etc) need replacing? Further up the thread I posted some research that shows empirical evidence that HEVs are the lowest cost of ownership (including maintenance).

 

[710-oil-614]

I've calculated that considering fuel, upfront cost, and interest/opportunity cost, the hybrid is likely to save an owner about $10-15K over 10 years of ownership compared to the AWD EB. So, about $100/mo.

That's a broad range and quite optimistic.

I don't think you can factor in what you do with the money not spent as part of TCO. WIth that avoided cost of an EB - I could win the lottery with the money I avoided spending and then the TCO is exponentially better for the Hybrid. You can count the money saved upfront imo.

That being said - at 3.35 per gallon (impossible to apply linear inflation to fuel costs so we will hold it at 3.35) over 120,000 it's closer to $4,600 in fuel savings.

Fuel savings: $4,596.67
EB Cost Avoidance: $1,085.00
Oil change savings: $300
Brake savings: $1,000
Miscellaneous: $500

Total savings: $7,481.67

 

[brnpttmn]

That's a broad range and quite optimistic.

I don't think you can factor in what you do with the money not spent as part of TCO. WIth that avoided cost of an EB - I could win the lottery with the money I avoided spending and then the TCO is exponentially better for the Hybrid. You can count the money saved upfront imo.

That being said - at 3.35 per gallon (impossible to apply linear inflation to fuel costs so we will hold it at 3.35) over 120,000 it's closer to $4,600 in fuel savings.

Fuel savings: $4,596.67
EB Cost Avoidance: $1,085.00
Oil change savings: $300
Brake savings: $1,000
Miscellaneous: $500

Total savings: $7,481.67

You don't have to factor in what you do with the money, but it's pretty standard practice to build in time-value into long-term cost calculations (i built in 6%). I intentionally left off the potential other costs (maintenance and such). Research shows that they're likely to be less for the hybrid, but I think it's fair to consider them a wash (mostly for simplicity).

You've missed the AWD up front cost on your calculation (my calc includes that), and just adding that extra $2,200 puts your own estimate near $10K (the low end of my range)

Agreed that it's a pretty wide range, but I tried to estimate for a range of "reasonable use" of the car (i.e., 10-15K annual mileage). I'd probably put my personal estimate closer to the 10K mark because I drive a moderate number of miles (but I'm also driving a higher proportion of city miles, so the savings delta is higher).

 

[710-oil-614]

You don't have to factor in what you do with the money, but it's pretty standard practice to build in time-value into long-term cost calculations (i built in 6%). I intentionally left off the potential other costs (maintenance and such). Research shows that they're likely to be less for the hybrid, but I think it's fair to consider them a wash (mostly for simplicity).

You've missed the AWD up front cost on your calculation (my calc includes that), and just adding that extra $2,200 puts your own estimate near $10K (the low end of my range)

Agreed that it's a pretty wide range, but I tried to estimate for a range of "reasonable use" of the car (i.e., 10-15K annual mileage). I'd probably put my personal estimate closer to the 10K mark because I drive a moderate number of miles (but I'm also driving a higher proportion of city miles, so the savings delta is higher).

OP clearly stated FWD 2.0EB so I didn't miss the AWD up front cost. Hybrid Mavericks are not AWD so it would not be apples to apples to compare.

There is no time-value for cost avoidance.

 

[JASmith]

There's pretty much zero chance you are going to go a full 120K miles on a direct injection engine without either suffering significant performance loss or going ahead and getting it carbon cleaned. Seafoam won't do enough for a direct injection engine, and its usually best to have a shop do the blasting as you don't want to "woops" and get any of that material in your engine.

So factor in $600 for the walnut blasting, probably every 60K miles if you're smart, so that's $1200 added to the price differential on the ecoboost.

 

[brnpttmn]

OP clearly stated FWD 2.0EB so I didn't miss the AWD up front cost. Hybrid Mavericks are not AWD so it would not be apples to apples to compare.

There is no time-value for cost avoidance.

But you were comparing your calculation to my estimate--that you called high--that is clearly labeled as "EB AWD."

The upfront $3,300 savings is not cost avoidance, it's straight up cost savings.

 

[710-oil-614]

But you were comparing your calculation to my estimate--that you called high--that is clearly labeled as "EB AWD."

The upfront $3,300 savings is not cost avoidance, it's straight up cost savings.

Even with AWD - account for the additional fuel it's really another $1,600 in cost savings.

So that takes my number to just over $9k.

The only way a Hybrid owner is going to realize $15,000 TCO savings is if they drive their Hybrid 240k+ miles.

 

[brnpttmn]

Even with AWD - account for the additional fuel it's really another $1,600 in cost savings.

So that takes my number to just over $9k.

The only way a Hybrid owner is going to realize $15,000 TCO savings is if they drive their Hybrid 240k+ miles.

It's not "savings" per se, it's the delta in TCO.

Here's my breakdown.
$3300 up front cost
$3000 interest/opportunity cost (6% interest over 10 years on the up front cost)
$4000-7000 gas cost (based on the EPA 55/45 and high | low on the schedule below)
$10,300-$13,000 total

This is without discounting the time-value based on cost avoidance of the reduced monthly gas costs. Doing so would add another $1500-2500 (viola, $15K ceiling for the estimate). My estimate also assumes that gas prices will be the same over 10 years. I'm not sure where they'll be but it's a conservative estimate that they'll be $3-3.50.

City %	Hwy %	EB AWD	Hybrid	% diff	MPG diff	$/yr (@15K $3.50)	$/yr (@10K $3.00)
100​	0​	22​	42​	91%​	20​	$ 1,136	$ 649
90​	10​	22.7​	41.1​	81%​	18.4​	$ 1,035	$ 592
80​	20​	23.4​	40.2​	72%​	16.8​	$ 938	$ 536
70​	30​	24.1​	39.3​	63%​	15.2​	$ 843	$ 481
60​	40​	24.8​	38.4​	55%​	13.6​	$ 750	$ 428
55​	45​	25.2​	37.95​	51%​	12.8​	$ 704	$ 402
50​	50​	25.5​	37.5​	47%​	12​	$ 659	$ 376
40​	60​	26.2​	36.6​	40%​	10.4​	$ 569	$ 325
30​	70​	26.9​	35.7​	33%​	8.8​	$ 481	$ 275
20​	80​	27.6​	34.8​	26%​	7.2​	$ 394	$ 225
10​	90​	28.3​	33.9​	20%​	5.6​	$ 306	$ 175
0​	100​	29​	33​	14%​	4​	$ 219	$ 125

 

[710-oil-614]

It's not "savings" per se, it's the delta in TCO.

Here's my breakdown.
$3300 up front cost
$3000 interest/opportunity cost (6% interest over 10 years on the up front cost)
$4000-7000 gas cost (based on the EPA 55/45 and high | low on the schedule below)
$10,300-$13,000 total

This is without discounting the time-value based on cost avoidance of the reduced monthly gas costs. Doing so would add another $1500-2500 (viola, $15K ceiling for the estimate). My estimate also assumes that gas prices will be the same over 10 years. I'm not sure where they'll be but it's a conservative estimate that they'll be $3-3.50.

City %	Hwy %	EB AWD	Hybrid	% diff	MPG diff	$/yr (@15K $3.50)	$/yr (@10K $3.00)
100​	0​	22​	42​	91%​	20​	$ 1,136	$ 649
90​	10​	22.7​	41.1​	81%​	18.4​	$ 1,035	$ 592
80​	20​	23.4​	40.2​	72%​	16.8​	$ 938	$ 536
70​	30​	24.1​	39.3​	63%​	15.2​	$ 843	$ 481
60​	40​	24.8​	38.4​	55%​	13.6​	$ 750	$ 428
55​	45​	25.2​	37.95​	51%​	12.8​	$ 704	$ 402
50​	50​	25.5​	37.5​	47%​	12​	$ 659	$ 376
40​	60​	26.2​	36.6​	40%​	10.4​	$ 569	$ 325
30​	70​	26.9​	35.7​	33%​	8.8​	$ 481	$ 275
20​	80​	27.6​	34.8​	26%​	7.2​	$ 394	$ 225
10​	90​	28.3​	33.9​	20%​	5.6​	$ 306	$ 175
0​	100​	29​	33​	14%​	4​	$ 219	$ 125

LOL. I called it cost avoidance and you call it cost savings. I call it cost savings and you tell it is something else.

Regardless - we're not going to agree that you can slip in "opportunity cost" into TCO. TCO in the most basic sense is capital cost + operating cost - disposal value = TCO.

 

[brnpttmn]

LOL. I called it cost avoidance and you call it cost savings. I call it cost savings and you tell it is something else.

Regardless - we're not going to agree that you can slip in "opportunity cost" into TCO. TCO in the most basic sense is capital cost + operating cost - disposal value = TCO.

No, you called the TCO delta "cost savings." I called the "$3,300" lower sticker price "cost savings." Two different things.

Agree to disagree on including opportunity costs, but it's normal sound analysis for this type of calculation. See my previous citation.

TCO calculations involve an extensive set of financial parameters. Among these, interest rate, inflation, and discount rate parameters are the most important for calculating a private quantitative TCO based on real prices. -p.19

 

[myred65]

but your battery is only warrantied for 100,000 miles so if it has to be replaced after that, you have eaten up most or all of that savings.

 

[brnpttmn]

but your battery is only warrantied for 100,000 miles so if it has to be replaced after that, you have eaten up most or all of that savings.

Don't make me tap the sign.

 

[mikedege]

Did your car come in?

Per Ford tracking, It got delayed until the 23rd, not sure why. Doh... I'm very hopeful it will show up before Xmas.

Mike

 

[Decayed]

I disagree that you should deduct battery cost from fuel savings. Do we add the cost of a turbo replacement on the EcoBoost? Is there a way to know the cost savings of the brake pads, water pump, serpentine belt, oil changes, etc. I couldn’t see this battery costing more than $2k by the time it fails. It bolts up easy to the underside too. Might get incredibly better mileage with an upgraded battery by then. Most of us in 10-12 years will be ready for a new vehicle.

Of course you would deduct those costs. TCO includes everything.

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