Are maverick prices due to crash?

[Scott Asheville]

I don't know if I'd use the term "crash". To me, "crash" means dealers are offering $10,000 off sticker. I think anyone would agree that, at least in many areas, Maverick prices are moderating. Demand is not infinite. Fleets will always want them. Lots of people will always want them.

But they're building close to 150,000 Mavericks a year? Maybe Ford will sell that many Mavericks at list price forever? I'm kind of dubious. OTOH, there is not a big enough number to count how many times I've made the wrong prediction about a zillion things in my long, long life.

PS: Remember that fleet buyers negotiate prices for bulk buys. And we have no visibility into those transactions.

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[MakinDoForNow]

So after the flooding and hurricane this last weekend took out several hundred thousand vehicles what's the new price gonna be for a new OR used Maverick in a couple weeks or so??? Just saw on TV a Tesla in a Florida garage that had water in it with fire coming out from battery burning.

 

[Probity]

“Crash”? No. Regressing to pre-covid/pre-Build-to-Order conditions? Yes.

Lots of articles this year on overall industry conditions – a recent (week ago) high level overview here:

Q3-2024-Cox-Automotive-Industry-Insights-and-Sales-Forecast-Call.pdf (coxautoinc.com)

2024 – ‘official’ end of Sellers’ market. Have to compare/look at trends before and after ~2020. Used market still relatively strong but not like the craziness of 2021-23. Used prices down in general – “Listing Price is 6% lower Y/Y and remains below the last several years, helping affordability”.

New market – inventories approaching pre-covid levels – “Currently 800K more units (+40%) than last year; Days of supply at 77 (+26%)”. Transaction prices approaching (but still not at) pre-covid ~10 year trend. For the automakers, their larger/higher margin vehicles (i.e. F-150’s etc) are underperforming.

Current wild cards – impending dockworkers strike - Looming Port Strike Could Wreck Car Supply Chain - Kelley Blue Book (kbb.com) . If a prolonged strike this could help Ford/GM/etc clear out their current inventory gluts. So it will be interesting to see what FoMoCo does incentives/rebate wise in their next cycle (current incentives offers end today 9/30/2024), in a week or 2 will Ford raise/lower/keep the same incentives levels? Who knows.

Regards new Maverick pricing, nationally other than a few dealers offering ‘dealer discounts’ on unloved/weirdly options units (usually XL’s w/o hitch receivers), I’d be very surprised to see any FoMoCo incentives movement lower than MSRP + whatever financing you can secure. Maverick margins just too low for Ford. On the used side as a seller – be happy if you find a buyer willing to be reasonable per pre-covid price trends.

 

[Deerjack]

The thing is when you click on Maverick on the Ford site it’s still the 24. I’m guessing a lot of people don’t realize they can build and order a 25 yet.

You can build a 25 on the site

https://shop.ford.com/configure/maverick/2025/model/customize/xl?intcmp=reveal-360cta-fbc

 

[Deerjack]

Yes, but this is not clear to someone who doesn't know about it.....which is the point of their post. The "default" Maverick is still the 2024 model, which is ridiculous since the order banks are closed for 2024.

Agree with this. Very confusing.

 

[Scupking]

You can build a 25 on the site

https://shop.ford.com/configure/maverick/2025/model/customize/xl?intcmp=reveal-360cta-fbc

Yeah I know but it's not clear. If you go to trucks and then Maverick the first thing that comes up is the 2024 (in a big bold font). Right next to the "2024 build and price" it says "meet the 2025 Maverick" (in small font).

 

[Deerjack]

Yeah I know but it's not clear. If you go to trucks and then Maverick the first thing that comes up is the 2024 (in a big bold font). Right next to the "2024 build and price" it says "meet the 2025 Maverick" (in small font).

100% agree

 

[lajlmt]

Just traded away my mav and did OK on it. KBB and Carfax had it as trading higher than I was ever offered in trade by 3 different dealers even after some negotiating. KBB's average trade value dropped $1k in a week while I was shopping.

I just read on another thread that Ford only got like 6k pre-orders for 2025. If this is true, it means supply has caught up with demand. THAT means prices are set to drop across the board unless Ford reduces production.

When I first got my '22, Carvana was offering people like $5k over what they paid and a IIRC few people here said they took the deal. Now Carvana made the lowest offer of anyone. Their prices crashed a while ago but it was enough to make me think that the used market for mavs is changing a lot. This will tend to drive new prices down as well.

I feel like I got out just before the used prices take a nose dive.

Anyone seeing anything to confirm or deny this?

If I sold my ‘23 XLT Lux right now I would lose $6,000. Due to the inability to get it for MSRP. I tv I as in excellent shape and has 6,000 miles. I ordered a ‘24 here in Albuquerque and gave it up because I had not moved here yet from Hawaii (I thought the build would take longer.)

 

[infowars]

I still love the size, versatility and mpg of a maverick. The cost increases have really turned me off and the economy being so volatile right now has led me not to buy one. i have a good job and good job security.

 

[Chase300]

Maverick margins just too low for Ford.

Ford sold me a 2024 for 2023 pricing...,and I'm sure they didn't lose money on the sale, so I'm sure they could throw 3-4K for a rebate and still make money

 

[Probity]

Ford sold me a 2024 for 2023 pricing...,and I'm sure they didn't lose money on the sale, so I'm sure they could throw 3-4K for a rebate and still make money

1. Is it Ford or a Ford dealer that sold you....a dealer can discount to get rid of a unit for floor plan cost reasons, lightly or poorly optioned/unloved unit, whatever. Granger's 3% under invoice for a new B-T-O Mav still makes them (Granger) money but not 3-4K ave./unit, and only Ford knows what their pre-tax margin is per average Mav unit built.
2. "they could throw 3-4k for a rebate and still make money" - maybe for a fully loaded Lariat, but for an XL or XLT that's a WAG not a SWAG.

 

[TomD]

Just traded away my mav and did OK on it. KBB and Carfax had it as trading higher than I was ever offered in trade by 3 different dealers even after some negotiating. KBB's average trade value dropped $1k in a week while I was shopping.

I just read on another thread that Ford only got like 6k pre-orders for 2025. If this is true, it means supply has caught up with demand. THAT means prices are set to drop across the board unless Ford reduces production.

When I first got my '22, Carvana was offering people like $5k over what they paid and a IIRC few people here said they took the deal. Now Carvana made the lowest offer of anyone. Their prices crashed a while ago but it was enough to make me think that the used market for mavs is changing a lot. This will tend to drive new prices down as well.

I feel like I got out just before the used prices take a nose dive.

Anyone seeing anything to confirm or deny this?

I think Ford hurt the entire market.
They didn’t have enough trucks to meet the demand. In 2024 they fixed their problem by making the hybrid an option and raising prices from launch to present.
When you have to pay extra for what was standard equipment it changes demand.
I really hope Ford doesn’t wind up killing the truck.

 

[Propane Burning Man]

Hello Maverick fans. New member here and first post. My buying experience has been: June 2023 I decided to buy a new Maverick. I knew the order books were close on the 23's so I would just wait till August and try to order a 24 at MSRP. I had already decided I wasn't paying over MSRP, and that dealer price gouging conditions would not last forever. I wasn't in a bind with my perfectly running 08 Ranger. I visited 3 dealers within 20 miles of my home. Not a single Maverick in stock. All 3 dealers were asking 3-5K over MSRP. I started waiting. 1 salesman told me it would be 2 years before I could buy at MSRP. Fast forward to August 2024. Books open on the 25 Mav. I start shopping again. I see there is 26 Mavs in stock at my 3 local dealers + Roseburg, Oregon. They still wanted 2-5K over. I decide to contact the Bend, OR dealer, 180 miles away. They had 24 new '24's in stock or in transit all at MSRP. At first I wanted a space white 2025 but the salesman told me those are 2K over MSRP, but I could still order a 2024 at MSRP. So that's what I did, ordered a Hybrid in hot pepper red. So there is a huge difference in 1 year, in my area anyways. Mavs are in stock waiting for buyers, and it is game over for the flippers.

 

[AlsMaverick]

Hello Maverick fans. New member here and first post. My buying experience has been: June 2023 I decided to buy a new Maverick. I knew the order books were close on the 23's so I would just wait till August and try to order a 24 at MSRP. I had already decided I wasn't paying over MSRP, and that dealer price gouging conditions would not last forever. I wasn't in a bind with my perfectly running 08 Ranger. I visited 3 dealers within 20 miles of my home. Not a single Maverick in stock. All 3 dealers were asking 3-5K over MSRP. I started waiting. 1 salesman told me it would be 2 years before I could buy at MSRP. Fast forward to August 2024. Books open on the 25 Mav. I start shopping again. I see there is 26 Mavs in stock at my 3 local dealers + Roseburg, Oregon. They still wanted 2-5K over. I decide to contact the Bend, OR dealer, 180 miles away. They had 24 new '24's in stock or in transit all at MSRP. At first I wanted a space white 2025 but the salesman told me those are 2K over MSRP, but I could still order a 2024 at MSRP. So that's what I did, ordered a Hybrid in hot pepper red. So there is a huge difference in 1 year, in my area anyways. Mavs are in stock waiting for buyers, and it is game over for the flippers.

I ordered my '24 Lariat FX4 w/ 4k tow for MSRP the day the order banks opened. What did you miss?

 

[Propane Burning Man]

I ordered my '24 Lariat FX4 w/ 4k tow for MSRP the day the order banks opened. What did you miss?

Apparently your Cincy dealer was selling at MSRP, none of dealers near me were.

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