Order Banks hours opened compared to build days! Yikes

[Gene Ab]

The way I figure it there are 5 build days (1 week) for each hour the orders were opened. This means if your Maverick was ordered at 2:00 on 9/18 then you will have to wait 8 1/2 months before your Maverick gets scheduled to build.

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[Impetus19]

It sounds about right for a non hybrid build.

 

[bearsfan647]

The way I figure it there are 5 build days (1 week) per each hour orders were put in when the banks were opened. This means if your Maverick was ordered at 2:00 on 9/18 then you will have to wait 8 1/2 before your Maverick gets scheduled to build.

How do you figure? Where did you get this data? Kinda confused how you attributed 5 build days per hour banks were open?

 

[Gene Ab]

I figured 344 built per day by dividing 86K by 250 work days. I figured orders were placed in a 67 hour window. Crunched some more and it came out to 5 days per hour.

 

[Raymundo76]

Assumes a lot but shows some original thinking. Would guess this does not deal with 2.0L vs 2.5L issues. Makes me feel good about noon on 9/16. Thankyou for the first feel good !! On second thought assuming (= an ass out of you & me ) two 2.0L built for every one 2.5L I may get a build date in about 6 mo. Naw I don't buy it.

 

[Gene Ab]

I’m sure there is lot more to the equation. I was hoping greater minds on here would go deeper with constraints. But I’m sure your 9/16 order is a good thing. Time will tell.

 

[Mymaverick2021]

I figured 344 built per day by diving 86K by 250 work days. I figured orders were placed in a 67 hour window. Crunched some more and it came out to 5 days per hour.

Sounds good if you say it fast enough

 

[gte105u]

Critical thinking should be done to determine if stats that appear connected fall into Causation, Correlation, or Coincidence. This stat falls into coincidence.

Really it's not even that. Those are just two different stats shoved on top of each other. The time the order banks were open has no direct bearing on the build time beyond simple quantity of orders received. The method of scheduling is based upon priority codes and constraints, so timing within the bank is irrelevant. Might as well say something like the number of times the letter "R" appears on your build sheet will impact the number of days you wait or some other nonsense.

 

[bbhaag]

The day/hour that you ordered your Maverick has very little barring on when it will be manufactured.

Dealer allocation is the secret sauce that will get your Maverick to you faster.

 

[commadorebob]

It is an interesting thought. If you are an EB order and placed on 9/18, in general I think the wait will be months longer than those whose order went in on 9/16, assuming a particular dealer was putting in orders that entire time.

The allocation method does throw a wrench in this a little. Because if every dealer has an equal chance at their retail orders being processed in a given week, that means the dealer that waited until 9/19 to put in their first retail order has just as good a chance of having his truck built as the dealer who put all their orders in on 9/16. Because the allocation order goes: Region then dealer then priority then timestamp.

Constraints notwithstanding...

 

[mtd14]

Critical thinking should be done to determine if stats that appear connected fall into Causation, Correlation, or Coincidence. This stat falls into coincidence.

Really it's not even that. Those are just two different stats shoved on top of each other. The time the order banks were open has no direct bearing on the build time beyond simple quantity of orders received. The method of scheduling is based upon priority codes and constraints, so timing within the bank is irrelevant. Might as well say something like the number of times the letter "R" appears on your build sheet will impact the number of days you wait or some other nonsense.

You’re trying to make something statistically that isn’t pretending to be anything more than a back of the napkin estimate. It’s simply a rough way to put the date/time of order into some sort of context, which is better than having no idea of what it means. We all know there’s a bunch of assumptions, but it’s still interesting nonetheless.

 

[gte105u]

You’re trying to make something statistically that isn’t pretending to be anything more than a back of the napkin estimate. It’s simply a rough way to put the date/time of order into some sort of context, which is better than having no idea of what it means. We all know there’s a bunch of assumptions, but it’s still interesting nonetheless.

Turning an order hour into a delivery window is based in statistics. What you just said makes no sense. Any reasonable estimate is going to have a basis which is rooted in a correlation of data. When you ordered in the order bank window has 0 impact on order delivery. A person who ordered the last day could be first built, and vice versa.

If people don't want to get called out for bad analysis (or made up estimates if that makes you feel better) don't post things with glaring logical fallacies.

 

[GA Hot Pepper]

What would be interesting if you knew and shared your dealer’s allocation number. Also how many orders were placed by your dealer. There are some very large dealers that get their share of the products. Just thinking!

 

[Finnster]

What would be interesting if you knew and shared your dealer’s allocation number. Also how many orders were placed by your dealer. There are some very large dealers that get their share of the products. Just thinking!

Good idea! You should start a new thread!

 

[mtd14]

Turning an order hour into a delivery window is based in statistics. What you just said makes no sense. Any reasonable estimate is going to have a basis which is rooted in a correlation of data. When you ordered in the order bank window has 0 impact on order delivery. A person who ordered the last day could be first built, and vice versa.

If people don't want to get called out for bad analysis (or made up estimates if that makes you feel better) don't post things with glaring logical fallacies.

You sound like someone who took high school stats and thinks that is the way the world works. Have you ever worked with a heuristic? You want an estimate of when your truck is being built, and you have the information available on the web.

The simple approximation OP came up with is if we assume 86k truck orders came in, they're all the same, being produced in order, and account for the entirety of 12 months production. You can assume how long the order bank was open and orders were entered uniformly to come up with an estimate for when you order will be produced. What's nice is it's very flexible to different assumptions and levels of complexity. You can add in some rough logic for hybrids vs EB, adjust the hours orders could be entered (like if you're Tremor), etc.

There likely isn't a reliable way to come up with an estimate that would hold true for everyone, given how dealership allocations and supply constraints impact things. If you think there's a model for estimating everyone's production week with statistical significance I'd love to see it, since it would help me out. Until then, it's probably not worth complaining about someone else's attempt not being accurate enough for your preference.

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