Order Banks hours opened compared to build days! Yikes

[olderbudwiser]

You sound like someone who took high school stats and thinks that is the way the world works. Have you ever worked with a heuristic? You want an estimate of when your truck is being built, and you have the information available on the web.

The simple approximation OP came up with is if we assume 86k truck orders came in, they're all the same, being produced in order, and account for the entirety of 12 months production. You can assume how long the order bank was open and orders were entered uniformly to come up with an estimate for when you order will be produced. What's nice is it's very flexible to different assumptions and levels of complexity. You can add in some rough logic for hybrids vs EB, adjust the hours orders could be entered (like if you're Tremor), etc.

There likely isn't a reliable way to come up with an estimate that would hold true for everyone, given how dealership allocations and supply constraints impact things. If you think there's a model for estimating everyone's production week with statistical significance I'd love to see it, since it would help me out. Until then, it's probably not worth complaining about someone else's attempt not being accurate enough for your preference.

Wow OP was having a little fun and sounds like he got kicked in the nads.

Carry on with the beatings...

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[huunvubu]

It is an interesting thought. If you are an EB order and placed on 9/18, in general I think the wait will be months longer than those whose order went in on 9/16, assuming a particular dealer was putting in orders that entire time.

The allocation method does throw a wrench in this a little. Because if every dealer has an equal chance at their retail orders being processed in a given week, that means the dealer that waited until 9/19 to put in their first retail order has just as good a chance of having his truck built as the dealer who put all their orders in on 9/16. Because the allocation order goes: Region then dealer then priority then timestamp.

Constraints notwithstanding...

Yes each dealers allocations are primary and secondary is constraints on the orders.

Orders from a dealer that have allocations available will be selected for scheduling consideration based on priority of order (10 being the best) followed by date/time order was placed.

Then constrained items have an effect if the order gets selected. Based upon Ford constrained percents the order may get selected for a build or passed over.

Last year my 2022 Maverick XLT Hybrid was selected for a build date very quickly because I only had Co-Pilot360 as a constrained item along with it being a Hybrid. Other orders at the dealer were passed over even though they were EcoBoost orders because of the many constrained items on their orders (told to me by the dealer) like Lux packages, Bed Liners, Bed Covers etc.

 

[gte105u]

You sound like someone who took high school stats and thinks that is the way the world works. Have you ever worked with a heuristic? You want an estimate of when your truck is being built, and you have the information available on the web.

The simple approximation OP came up with is if we assume 86k truck orders came in, they're all the same, being produced in order, and account for the entirety of 12 months production. You can assume how long the order bank was open and orders were entered uniformly to come up with an estimate for when you order will be produced. What's nice is it's very flexible to different assumptions and levels of complexity. You can add in some rough logic for hybrids vs EB, adjust the hours orders could be entered (like if you're Tremor), etc.

There likely isn't a reliable way to come up with an estimate that would hold true for everyone, given how dealership allocations and supply constraints impact things. If you think there's a model for estimating everyone's production week with statistical significance I'd love to see it, since it would help me out. Until then, it's probably not worth complaining about someone else's attempt not being accurate enough for your preference.

I hope you don't work with numbers for a living. I build conceptual estimates daily, paid well to do so. And in doing so I use actual data, not fairy tale metrics. I don't estimate the cost of wood using unicorn farts...

There is no correlation between order window hour and delivery. If it was a FIFO model then it would actually be a decent method. But with Ford's allocation, priority code, constraint based models it would take pretty extensive analysis to get any sort of reasonable guess.

If you want to use bad data to guess when you'll get a truck go ahead. But you also come across as the kind of person who will latch onto that then complain when your bad assumption doesn't come true. You also come across as the kind of person who will argue this issue to death despite it being glaringly obvious you are wrong. Unfortunately that is one of the common issues in our day and age.

 

[gte105u]

Wow OP was having a little fun and sounds like he got kicked in the nads.

Carry on with the beatings...

If OP was joking around... Apologies for missing the joke. Seems like a recipe for disgruntled posters to grab and later complain though.

 

[skadizzle]

I got an easy way to figure out build dates. Take 5 red darts (Eco) and one Blue dart( hybrid).Throw them on the wall and schedule the five reds in reverse order as they are pulled with most recent going first. Just throw the blue one in the garbage because it's never getting built.

 

[olderbudwiser]

If OP was joking around... Apologies for missing the joke. Seems like a recipe for disgruntled posters to grab and later complain though.

I knew it wasn't a joke joke, but could see it was just a simple math calculation. If adult posters can't see that shame on them.

 

[commadorebob]

If OP was joking around... Apologies for missing the joke. Seems like a recipe for disgruntled posters to grab and later complain though.

If numbers are accurate, people would still latch onto them and complain.

I doubt the OP meant any ill will. It was just some basic "if-this-then-that" calculations. At the end of the day, this is supposed to be entertainment.

 

[GA Hot Pepper]

Allocation is a big factor. Check on the Bronco sites, one smaller dealer took 800 reservations. How many have they delivered, 200. Let’s hope the 86,000 reservations/orders can be built in a timely manner. Remember, dealers will get stock units also, based on their size.

 

[Flight Test]

Very interesting conversation here. Unless there is a member on this board who works intimately with scheduling at the Hermosillo production facility; someone who has detailed info on every single variable involved with producing the Mav, who the hell knows for sure if/when our trucks will be built. Needless to say. I watch in both humor and horror at the shit show that is FoMoCo production.

 

[Impetus19]

Allocation is a big factor. Check on the Bronco sites, one smaller dealer took 800 reservations. How many have they delivered, 200. Let’s hope the 86,000 reservations/orders can be built in a timely manner. Remember, dealers will get stock units also, based on their size.

From Ford's perspective, that kind of scenario just makes zero sense to me. Why wouldn't they limit the number of orders that dealer could put through to a reasonable number? All that does is make for a horrible CX.

 

[Skeeter163]

The day/hour that you ordered your Maverick has very little barring on when it will be manufactured.

Dealer allocation is the secret sauce that will get your Maverick to you faster.

You are right, dealer allocations and parts supply are the MAIN
drawbacks to builds.my dealer has not got one hybred while Long has got hundreds!

 

[Hatonapug]

If they're not lying about rollovers getting priority... and assuming they keep giving dealer stock priority as they've repeatedly shown they will... and will lie about... I doubt newly ordered 23 hybrids have ANY hope of a pre-June build date.

 

[Gene Ab]

You are right, dealer allocations and parts supply are the MAIN
drawbacks to builds.my dealer has not got one hybred while Long has got hundreds!

Long is the king of Mavericks

 

[Raymundo76]

The day/hour that you ordered your Maverick has very little barring on when it will be manufactured.

Dealer allocation is the secret sauce that will get your Maverick to you faster.

FYI, my dealer said that "no dealer allocations' per se, based only on customer orders this time. And first in first build. Of course I have no way to verify this. Also the 22 that were pushed to 23 had to reconfirm or they were SOL.

 

[SimonMore]

FYI, my dealer said that "no dealer allocations' per se, based only on customer orders this time. And first in first build. Of course I have no way to verify this. Also the 22 that were pushed to 23 had to reconfirm or they were SOL.

If you find yourself starting a comment with "my dealer said", rethink if you want to go further. It is useless "information".

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