MY22 Rollover Percentage

[pa-outdoorsman]

Interesting tidbit from last night's YouTube live with @fordvideoguy -- based on his expected allocations for July and August, Tim figures roughly 20 percent of Long-McArthur's MY22 Maverick orders will be pushed to MY23.

Since Ford provides zero data on such things, that's really the only data point we have to go on. If you extrapolate that out nationally, and figure a 20 percent carryover, give or take a couple percent either way, you're probably looking at at least 20,000 orders that will be carrying over, given that Ford is on pace to produce roughly 100,000 MY22 Mavericks.

Now, think about how many people who don't have current orders have been sitting on the sidelines waiting for a chance to get their hands on a Maverick. Any guesses on how many MY23 orders Ford will have on its book by the end of August? I don't think it's unreasonable to say that number could be well in excess of 100,000. Not that Ford will ever tell you. However, if you do want a MY23 Maverick, best get your order in early. This year, the books may close by fall...

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[paneubert]

I agree. But as a counter-point, there is a percentage of current orders that will bring the numbers down a bit for various reasons.

1. Folks who are fed up with Ford and won't reorder on principle, even if they still wish they could have a Maverick. Stick it to Ford!
2. Folks who have already moved on to purchase something else since they could not wait as long as it has been taking. We see these people post on here all the time.
3. Folks who have no clue about ANY of this and don't know to contact their dealer to order a 2023. They think things will just roll over automatically. They don't even realize the model year is ending. They did not know they were supposed to remove constraints. Hell......I know there are some DEALERS who probably don't even understand the process. And those clueless dealers are probably some of the same dealers who don't communicate well with their customers.

All of those situations above will result in the 2022 orders being canceled as soon as Ford balances out the model year. If we go with the 20% "rollover" percentage from Long McArthur as the average, what percentage could we assign to folks who don't plan to go thru the motions of "rolling" theirs to 2023? Perhaps when the dust settles we find that only something like half of the unscheduled 2022 orders get ordered again as a 2023.

 

[Bad Actor]

What's really going to throw a wrench into the works is people placing multiple orders. A lot of those will turn into dealer stock with ADM's and slow down the delivery to folks who placed just one order. We see that this year already.

 

[VectorsForDelay]

My dealer is telling me my 22 will automatically roll over to a 23.

 

[MLowe05]

My dealer is telling me my 22 will automatically roll over to a 23.

Your dealer is what we around here like to call: wrong.

 

[projectvortex]

Interesting tidbit from last night's YouTube live with @fordvideoguy -- based on his expected allocations for July and August, Tim figures roughly 20 percent of Long-McArthur's MY22 Maverick orders will be pushed to MY23.

Since Ford provides zero data on such things, that's really the only data point we have to go on. If you extrapolate that out nationally, and figure a 20 percent carryover, give or take a couple percent either way, you're probably looking at at least 20,000 orders that will be carrying over, given that Ford is on pace to produce roughly 100,000 MY22 Mavericks.

Now, think about how many people who don't have current orders have been sitting on the sidelines waiting for a chance to get their hands on a Maverick. Any guesses on how many MY23 orders Ford will have on its book by the end of August? I don't think it's unreasonable to say that number could be well in excess of 100,000. Not that Ford will ever tell you. However, if you do want a MY23 Maverick, best get your order in early. This year, the books may close by fall...

For the 2022 MY, trucks produced in 2021 totaled 25,880. So far through June there has been 43,533 produced in 2022. July and October will only have a few thousand each……say a total of 4000. September has been announced as 4000. IF August would be 7500, the grand total of 22 MY Mavs would be close to 85,000. I think a rollover number of 20-25,000 seems reasonable.

This amount would, ordinarily, be about 3 months production for Hermosillo. That pushes a LOT of 23 MY orders out a ways.

 

[pa-outdoorsman]

For the 2022 MY, trucks produced in 2021 totaled 25,880. So far through June there has been 43,533 produced in 2022. July and October will only have a few thousand each……say a total of 4000. September has been announced as 4000. IF August would be 7500, the grand total of 22 MY Mavs would be close to 85,000. I think a rollover number of 20-25,000 seems reasonable.

This amount would, ordinarily, be about 3 months production for Hermosillo. That pushes a LOT of 23 MY orders out a ways.

Exactly. If the "average" wait time for a MY22 was eight months, what will the average be for a MY23?

Of course, it's a moving target. Ford's supply crunches could ease and they could start building more Mavericks, more quickly. Then again, things could stay as bad as they are now for the foreseeable future, or even get worse...

 

[skadizzle]

I would say a good majority of the orders will get reordered in 2023. Many that already have gotten something else will just take the order to flip for a profit (thus sticking it to Ford). While unethical, I wouldn't be surprised either if dealers resubmit them as 23 orders regardless if the customer requests it so make a profit themselves. I know the dealers have a quota to meet, but I could see them doing it to a handful of orders for straight profits.

I think there will be a good number of later non-constraint orders that get built to close out 22s also.

Either way, I have two late October orders so I think I should "hopefully" be close to the front of the queue when its all said and done. There are a lot of October orders getting scheduled now so I imagine there won't be more than 300-400 orders ahead of me at the beginning. Then again, watch me get my order July 2023.

 

[Landric]

I have 3 orders at present (which probably makes me part of the problem). I don't expect any of them to get scheduled, all are January orders with CP360.

So, my plan is simple:

-Cancel my local order and get my $500 deposit back. My local dealer has had absolutely zero communication with me since I ordered and has failed to respond to my contact efforts (which haven't been that much). I have CP360 on my order so they should have at least contacted me to see if I wanted to change anything; they didn't.

-Keep my $3000 off MSRP order with Granger. I might switch that to a bare bones XL. Hopefully that means it will be delivered quickly as a 2023 and I can drive it for a while.

-Keep my Long McArthur order but change it to a hybrid with the luxury package and CP360. That will probably mean it doesn't show up quickly, I don't expect constraints to magically go away just because of a change in model year. Once it is delivered either sell the Granger Maverick or trade it on the hybrid. My oldest son might be in the market by then so maybe I will sell him the Granger Maverick.

 

[KevCuRaoi]

Your dealer is what we around here like to call: wrong.

In the past, vehicles that had to transition to the next model year did automatically roll over. Dealers did have to take action to resubmit so they would be looked at for scheduling, but the process has been (semi-)automatic in the past.

 

[KevCuRaoi]

I have 3 orders at present (which probably makes me part of the problem). I don't expect any of them to get scheduled, all are January orders with CP360.

So, my plan is simple:

-Cancel my local order and get my $500 deposit back. My local dealer has had absolutely zero communication with me since I ordered and has failed to respond to my contact efforts (which haven't been that much). I have CP360 on my order so they should have at least contacted me to see if I wanted to change anything; they didn't.

-Keep my $3000 off MSRP order with Granger. I might switch that to a bare bones XL. Hopefully that means it will be delivered quickly as a 2023 and I can drive it for a while.

-Keep my Long McArthur order but change it to a hybrid with the luxury package and CP360. That will probably mean it doesn't show up quickly, I don't expect constraints to magically go away just because of a change in model year. Once it is delivered either sell the Granger Maverick or trade it on the hybrid. My oldest son might be in the market by then so maybe I will sell him the Granger Maverick.

I don't know what you have currently ordered, but making major changes (like EB to hybrid) may set you in the back of time line. Not sure how major changes like that will affect any price protect/ incentives for the MY transition.

 

[Landric]

I don't know what you have currently ordered, but making major changes (like EB to hybrid) may set you in the back of time line. Not sure how major changes like that will affect any price protect/ incentives for the MY transition.

The current theory seems to be that 2023 will be an all new order and the "private offer" will apply even if major changes are made to the configuration. At any rate, I plan to keep my Granger order basically the same with the possible change to an XL EB instead of an XLT EB. If my LM order that I change to a hybrid gets bumped back that is fine, I will hopefully have the Granger EB to drive while I wait.

 

[999]

Agree!

Your dealer is what we around here like to call: wrong.

 

[KevCuRaoi]

The current theory seems to be that 2023 will be an all new order and the "private offer" will apply even if major changes are made to the configuration. At any rate, I plan to keep my Granger order basically the same with the possible change to an XL EB instead of an XLT EB. If my LM order that I change to a hybrid gets bumped back that is fine, I will hopefully have the Granger EB to drive while I wait.

That is certainly a possibility. We'll have to wait until Ford releases the details to know for sure!

I hope it works out for you! I am enjoying my hybrid (11 month wait for me).

 

[MLowe05]

The current theory seems to be that 2023 will be an all new order and the "private offer" will apply even if major changes are made to the configuration. At any rate, I plan to keep my Granger order basically the same with the possible change to an XL EB instead of an XLT EB. If my LM order that I change to a hybrid gets bumped back that is fine, I will hopefully have the Granger EB to drive while I wait.

I wondered this myself. If you got from a Lariat Lux to an XL, surely the private offer amount will change..

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