MY22 Carryover Percentage

[pa-outdoorsman]

I checked with my dealer (Koch 33 in PA) again today and asked for some specifics regarding my Maverick order. Here's what I was told:

"Yours is 20th of our 21 that are still unscheduled."

I believe the dealership had roughly 60 total Maverick orders for MY22. So, that means about a third of their orders will be pushed to MY23.

Consider that Tim Bartz @fordvideoguy had indicated about 20 percent of Long-McArthur orders may be pushed to MY23, and I am wondering if we can safely assume that 20-30 percent is a fairly solid nationwide estimate for carryover percentage.

Since we know Ford is up to at least 106,xxx MY22 Mavericks to be built, with a couple more weeks of production still to be scheduled, I think it's fair to assume at least 110,000 total MY22 Mavericks will be produced. Assuming a 20-30 percent rollover or orders, I think a ballpark of 22,000-33,000 rollover orders seems pretty plausible. And yes, I realize not ALL MY22 Mavericks are in the U.S. Some go to South America and Canada.

Still, if we take a conservative estimate of 25,000 rollover orders, with the knowledge that roughly 110,000 can be produced annually, that means almost a quarter of MY23 production is already spoken for. If that doesn't make you a little sick to your stomach, well, you haven't been waiting for a Maverick for 8 or more months...

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[pa-outdoorsman]

Follow up: My dealer didn't dispute my assumptions, and added:

"Crazy right, we already have a huge schedule of people to order 2023's."

If you thought MY22 Maverick delivery was a s*%# show, we may not have seen nothing yet.

 

[DavesMav]

Me trying to avoid all of these threads lately..

I think your assumptions are fair though. I'm still surprised Ford is opening order banks for new orders at the same time existing are to be converted/rolling over. I think a better approach would be what they are doing with the Bronco rollover/ordering. But what do I know, Ford may have significantly more outstanding orders for the Bronco compared to the Maverick. I don't see Maverick order banks staying open much more than couple of months though. Then they'll shut it down, bump prices and reopen later. Rinse, repeat into 2024 MY.

 

[Topdog!]

I believe anyone that is not a carryover from 22 to 23 will be lucky to have a truck built any sooner than a year. I am guessing my order XLT LUX- FX4 which was placed this past January at this point will be the same.

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