Unlikely Scenario for MY22 Fulfillment of All Chapman Horsham Orders...

[MLowe05]

Interesting, what state you order in? Just curious to see if a pattern arises.

Georgia

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[Kameron512]

Georgia

Interesting I'm in Texas, and someone did say all of the south was one region. Don't know if that's true but maybe the region we are in are dropping the ball in moving our orders to PC2.

 

[MLowe05]

Interesting I'm in Texas, and someone did say all of the south was one region. Don't know if that's true but maybe the region we are in are dropping the ball in moving our orders to PC2.

If you have a Chapman order, we're in the same region regardless of where we live. It should be based on dealership.

 

[Kameron512]

If you have a Chapman order, we're in the same region regardless of where we live. It should be based on dealership.

Sorry I meant I ordered in Texas.

 

[theway-yay-ting]

Well what the heck, let's see where we stand as of today... as I mentioned on 5/20,

As a side note, on 4/15 there were 181 unscheduled Horsham orders. Today is 5 weeks later, and there are still 181 unscheduled Horsham orders. Additionally, no Maverick scheduling next week, so it’ll be 6 full weeks with no orders scheduled.

Not really sure what happened to change the previous rhythm (especially since several other large volume dealers had orders get scheduled in the same timeframe), but hopefully the floodgates open that week of 5/30 & all those 22 Horsham May allocations actually get scheduled for production sometime in July.

Also hopefully, we don’t see another month like April where some of the allocations don’t even get scheduled.

I probably won’t even check in with them until June 3rd or so. Of course maybe the week there is no Mav scheduling (5/23) is when we actually see a few… haha. Keep the faith, early orders!

So it's now 7 weeks since any Horsham builds were scheduled, and here we sit (still!) at 181 unscheduled. There were 7 April allocations that never got scheduled, and another 15 for May which also never got scheduled. Figured I'd update the projections chart accordingly.

Allocations

Unscheduled (as of EOM)

Month	Total	Hybrid	Gas	Total	Hybrid	Gas
Jan	43	(not sure on these)	(not sure on these)	272	170	102
Feb	45	28 41	17 4*	227 233	142129	85104
Mar	28	19	9	204*	110	94
Apr	25	14	9	181	96	85
May	15 0	0	0	181	96	85
Jun	20	8	12	161	88	73
Jul	20	8	12	141	80	61
Aug	20	8	12	121	72	49

The numbers in italics are projections, based on nothing other than wild-@ss-guessery. I broke out the hybrid vs EB projections going forward based upon the 40% hybrid constraint ratio we've been hearing all along.

They only had 15 allocations for May, none of which got scheduled, so the steady 20 allocations going forward is likely wishful thinking. Obviously disappointing, but nothing we can do except wait & see.

 

[MLowe05]

I wonder what happened? They've obviously been trying to do something as they've shuffled priority codes around.

 

[theway-yay-ting]

I wonder what happened? They've obviously been trying to do something as they've shuffled priority codes around.

We'd have to see 60 allocations per month for Jun-Aug to knock out all the unscheduled orders, so I've updated the thread title accordingly.

 

[MLowe05]

They could still surprise us, I suppose. But I think my Philly order looks a lot more likely than the Horsham one as a 2022 at this point.

 

[theway-yay-ting]

They could still surprise us, I suppose. But I think my Philly order looks a lot more likely than the Horsham one as a 2022 at this point.

Eh, I still think you have an excellent shot - you're the next Lariat Lux Hybrid among all of our reported orders.

 

[Dun4791]

Isn’t Ford already scheduling for the first week of august?

 

[MLowe05]

Eh, I still think you have an excellent shot - you're the next Lariat Lux Hybrid among all of our reported orders.

I think them moving me to 16 says they have a lot in front of me that need to get built. So perhaps in our sample size, I look to be next. But probably not overall.

 

[theway-yay-ting]

Isn’t Ford already scheduling for the first week of august?

The table shows the scheduling event, not the corresponding production week. This is why it stops in Aug - as by then they will be scheduling the last builds of the model year (to be built in late Sep thru mid Oct).

 

[theway-yay-ting]

I think them moving me to 16 says they have a lot in front of me that need to get built. So perhaps in our sample size, I look to be next. But probably not overall.

I still suspect that if they marked a Jun XLT Lux as 12 and a Oct Lariat Lux as 16, the powers that be (region or Ford Corp) are focusing on getting the higher margin Lariats scheduled first, since both use many of the same constrained items.

 

[BobS]

I still suspect that if they marked a Jun XLT Lux as 12 and a Oct Lariat Lux as 16, the powers that be (region or Ford Corp) are focusing on getting the higher margin Lariats scheduled first, since both use many of the same constrained items.

Couldn’t do it, but really, one would be better off upgrading to a Lariat LUX instead of removing LUX on the XLT.

 

[theway-yay-ting]

Couldn’t do it, but really, one would be better off upgrading to a Lariat LUX instead of removing LUX on the XLT.

I prefer the cloth seats of the XLT Lux to the brown pleather in the Lariat Lux 9and the lower price), so I wouldn't anyway. I've seriously considered asking Ashlie to add splash guards or protective fender film or some other highly constrained stuff to mine to ensure I roll to MY23 at this point, but I'll probably just leave it alone.

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