Hybrid Fuel Savings vs Battery Replacement Cost (With Inflation Adjustment)

[Masejoer]

You are somewhat correct. But you simply will not have a bad turbo at 50k no matter the age. Lots of 88-89 turbo coupe’s with that mileage and good turbos.
And same could be said about the hybrid. My point was that people always bring up turbo failure which is almost nonexistent at this point. Barring some sort of issue that kills it. Not turbos fault.
turbos simply should not be factored into replacement parts like batteries, brakes, and fluids.

For sure - I wasn't aiming any of this specifically at you, even if I clicked the "quote" bottom from your last post.

Mechanically, I'm rarely worried about vehicles today, and especially with hybrids having longer hybrid-component coverage. It's all the electronics that have me worried - they should be reliable, but often aren't. That's why I went with a 10-year/100k mile ford warranty, since it was only $1200 after using my otherwise-useless fordpass points for the rest, on a Lariat Lux. Relatively cheap warranty and I won't have to worry about stupid things like part-serialization if some electronic item fails.

If anything, it's those half shafts that are the biggest nuisance on these so far.

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[Gray Maverick]

If your hybrid vehicle is 10-15 years old and battery dies, what's stopping you from driving it with dead battery!?

 

[HeyBales]

If your hybrid vehicle is 10-15 years old and battery dies, what's stopping you from driving it with dead battery!?

When that time comes - there will likely be some known Forscan mods that will allow truck to run with out it, in which case lose the dead weight and pull it!
But you'll never be able to start the engine, so...

 

[Phimosis]

If your hybrid vehicle is 10-15 years old and battery dies, what's stopping you from driving it with dead battery!?

The car should shut down if the battery is not working.

The epicyclic CVT, e-cvt uses a planetary gear set for gear reduction:

The sun gear (yellow) is driven by the engine crankshaft. The gear reduction is the ratio of teeth on the sun gear divided by the teeth on the planetary gears (blue). The transmission output comes from the planetary carrier (green). But that is a fixed ratio. Only one gear. How do you get the infinite ratios of a cvt? By allowing the ring gear (red) to rotate. The direction and rotational speed of the ring gear determines the variable gear reduction.

The velocity of the ring gear is controlled by motor generator 2 (blue). MG2 is powered by the high voltage battery. If the high voltage battery is completely dead, MG2 can’t control the velocity of the ring gear, allowing it to free-wheel, which is what is happening when you’re at stall speed against a load. The sun gear is rotating, the ring gear is rotating and the planetary carrier is at a dead stop.

And heres how the whole system works together:

The TL;DR is that the car needs high voltage battery power to work. If there is no voltage, or critically low HV battery voltage, it is programmed to shut down.

 

[dochawk]

If your hybrid vehicle is 10-15 years old and battery dies, what's stopping you from driving it with dead battery!?

Decency, sir. Decency.

If there is no voltage, or critically low HV battery voltage, it is programmed to shut down.

nice explanation above. but does this mean that if "fails" means "won't hold much" rather than "nuthin'", that it might still do this job?

 

[Phimosis]

Decency, sir. Decency.





nice explanation above. but does this mean that if "fails" means "won't hold much" rather than "nuthin'", that it might still do this job?

Somewhere around 10 years and 150k miles, the battery capacity will be at 70% as much as new. And it is going to still be working just fine. The city mpg will probably be 1-2 mpg less, but you probably won’t even notice it.

70% is the typical threshold for battery replacement under EV warranties.

At some point lower than 70%, the battery management system is going to start throwing error codes for low battery voltage, increased internal pack resistance, unbalanced battery cells, etc, etc. Only Ford, or hybrid trained mechanics, will know what those thresholds are. Will it be at 60% capacity? 50%? Maybe.

My bet is that it will start throwing error codes before it gets to 50% capacity. In the beginning it will just be error codes telling you to take it in to get serviced. But if you keep driving it and the pack health keeps going lower, it will eventually go into limp mode when the battery is not able to discharge the 25,000 watts that the hybrid system is expecting to output.

And then sometime after that, the degrading battery parameters will be so far out of spec that the BMS will just shut the car down to prevent damage to the wiring. You know, Power=Amps x Volts. As the voltage sags during discharge due to increased internal pack resistance of the aging battery, the current will have to go up for a specified power output. But maximum current is limited by wire diameter. Too much current overheats the wires, so it shuts off.

At what point does that happen? I’m not sure. I seriously doubt that the car will keep going, even in limp mode, when the battery pack health is at something like 20% of new.

 

[The Real Maverick]

Somewhere around 10 years and 150k miles, the battery capacity will be at 70% as much as new. And it is going to still be working just fine. The city mpg will probably be 1-2 mpg less, but you probably won’t even notice it.

70% is the typical threshold for battery replacement under EV warranties.

At some point lower than 70%, the battery management system is going to start throwing error codes for low battery voltage, increased internal pack resistance, unbalanced battery cells, etc, etc. Only Ford, or hybrid trained mechanics, will know what those thresholds are. Will it be at 60% capacity? 50%? Maybe.

My bet is that it will start throwing error codes before it gets to 50% capacity. In the beginning it will just be error codes telling you to take it in to get serviced. But if you keep driving it and the pack health keeps going lower, it will eventually go into limp mode when the battery is not able to discharge the 25,000 watts that the hybrid system is expecting to output.

And then sometime after that, the degrading battery parameters will be so far out of spec that the BMS will just shut the car down to prevent damage to the wiring. You know, Power=Amps x Volts. As the voltage sags during discharge due to increased internal pack resistance of the aging battery, the current will have to go up for a specified power output. But maximum current is limited by wire diameter. Too much current overheats the wires, so it shuts off.

At what point does that happen? I’m not sure. I seriously doubt that the car will keep going, even in limp mode, when the battery pack health is at something like 20% of new.

In general, yes.

Low voltage will have a shut-down or unable to start threshold. % battery capacity, probably not.

5% battery capacity would be enough to start it and allow you to drive it. But can you have a battery degraded by 95% and still have normal voltage? Probably not.

So I'm going to call battery capacity unimportant.

Fun fact: factory new the truck only uses 40% battery capacity.

Battery recharge is forced at 30% charge. Discharge is forced at 70%.

The battery can degrade by 60% and you won't notice and MPG won't suffer.

 

[The Real Maverick]

I had an Escape Hybrid for 15 years and nearly a quarter million miles.

The MPG never changed.
The power output and EV range never changed.

It used NiMH cells back then.
The only symptom with age was the battery would get hotter. As it ages, internal resistance goes up. Technically less efficient but too small of a change to notice at the pump.

 

[Phimosis]

In general, yes.

Low voltage will have a shut-down or unable to start threshold. % battery capacity, probably not.

5% battery capacity would be enough to start it and allow you to drive it. But can you have a battery degraded by 95% and still have normal voltage? Probably not.

So I'm going to call battery capacity unimportant.

Fun fact: factory new the truck only uses 40% battery capacity.

Battery recharge is forced at 30% charge. Discharge is forced at 70%.

The battery can degrade by 60% and you won't notice and MPG won't suffer.

As you said in your follow up post: as a battery ages, it’s internal resistance goes up.

In this equation, R1 is the internal resistance of the battery. R2 is the resistance of the load (electric motor). As R1, internal resistance, drops to zero, the equation becomes R2/R2, which equals 1, meaning the voltage IN is the same as the voltage OUT (V in x 1.0 = V out), which means no drop in battery voltage. But, as internal resistance goes up, the result is a fraction that is less than one. For example, if the internal resistance of the battery is the same as the motor, say 10 Ohms, the voltage out would be voltage in x (10/(10+10)) =0.5, meaning the output voltage will be 0.5 x the input voltage. This is known as voltage sag.

A “400 volt nominal” EV battery that is charged to 100%, will be at 440 volts (+10%). When completely dead, it will be at 360 volts (-10%).

When the battery is brand new and fully charged, under load, it will sag from like 440V to 430V. No problem.

When a brand new battery is at 1% charge, under full load it will sag from 360v to 350V, which will trigger an over current situation and the car will shut down to prevent damage to the wiring.

Fast forward to the worn out battery with 40% of max capacity and a high internal resistance that is similar to the resistance of the electrical motor. At full charge, 440V, and under full load, the voltage will sag to 220V, which will immediately trigger a shut down. Anything under 360V and the electronics will shut it down to prevent over current damage to the wiring and circuits.

So an old battery pack with 40% of max capacity could be used for something like powering the lights in your cabin, but apply a 25,000 watt load from an EV motor and “click” it shuts off.

So at what percentage of battery degradation will the Ford maverick hybrid trigger an over-current / under-voltage situation? I’m not sure. But with Tesla vehicles, they start throwing error codes when the battery is around 70% of original capacity.

 

[The Real Maverick]

I will venture about 40% of original capacity and the Hybrid Mavericks will still be drivable.

Unlike the Tesla, Hybrids don't put very heavy, and certainly not sustained heavy loads on the battery.

6,000 watts will start the thing every time. 5,000 watts probably will most of the time.

Question is: if the limit is 100 amps and voltage sags will the current be limited? 99% sure yes it will.

There are PID's we can monitor for both maximum charge rate and maximum discharge rate.

Ford does not want to change / replace these batteries. Ever.
They are meant to be "lifetime" batteries.

 

[Phimosis]

I will venture about 40% of original capacity and the Hybrid Mavericks will still be drivable.

Unlike the Tesla, Hybrids don't put very heavy, and certainly not sustained heavy loads on the battery.

6,000 watts will start the thing every time. 5,000 watts probably will most of the time.

Question is: if the limit is 100 amps and voltage sags will the current be limited? 99% sure yes it will.

There are PID's we can monitor for both maximum charge rate and maximum discharge rate.

Ford does not want to change / replace these batteries. Ever.
They are meant to be "lifetime" batteries.

That is simply not true.

 

[The Real Maverick]

That is simply not true.

Dude.... nice cut and paste about PHEV's that only loosely resemble your Maverick.

Not good information.

I've been doing this as a Ford Hybrid Driver and Owner since early 2005.

 

[Phimosis]

Dude.... nice cut and paste about PHEV's that only loosely resemble your Maverick.

Not good information.

I've been doing this as a Ford Hybrid Driver and Owner since early 2005.

The Maverick is built on the same C2 platform that the Escape is. The Maverick uses the same battery pack that the Escape hybrid does. It’s not a loose resemblance. It is the same battery and the same battery management system.

Ford corporate says the battery is expected to last 100-150k miles. The warranty is only for 100k miles. There’s a reason for that. If they thought the battery would routinely last longer, they would offer a longer warranty, since that is one of the largest factors causing hesitancy to buy hybrids and EV’s.

Going back to your comments:

“I will venture about 40% of original capacity and the Hybrid Mavericks will still be drivable.
Unlike the Tesla, Hybrids don't put very heavy, and certainly not sustained heavy loads on the battery.”

I have a 9 year old Tesla with 140k miles on it. I charge it to 80%, 4 times a week, so 200 charge cycles per year. The battery shows 16.7% degradation. The Recurrent app tracks your charging and it shows 83.3% maximum capacity compared to new. It sees heavy loads, every day, full throttle at least 5 times a day, but usually more like 10-15 times per day. 400 kw of discharge, yet the battery degradation is still only 16% after 9 years.

The warranty on the battery was 8 years and 150k miles. It will fail at some point. We know this happens. When fails, it will not be because the maximum battery capacity keeps creeping downward until you finally get fed up with only having 40% as much range as when new. When it fails, it will be because of increased internal pack resistance and voltage sag under load.

The Maverick battery will suffer the same fate as it is also a lithium, nickel, cobalt, manganese chemistry.

And I’ll say it again, the Maverick needs the full output of the high voltage battery to be able to change gear ratios in the eCVT. If/when the battery fails to deliver the full 27kw, it is going to shut the vehicle down to prevent damage to the wiring.

 

[The Real Maverick]

And I'm saying you are incorrect and you still are comparing apples to bananas. You skipped right over oranges.

 

[The Real Maverick]

From Reddit:


QUESTION: I am curious to know how many daily first gen Prius drivers are still out there.


"We have 2 Priuses. A 2013 (200,000 miles) Prius which is a great car, and a 2002 Prius (383,000 miles) with original battery. I still daily drive my first gen and my wife drives the '13.
My 2002 still runs like new. Get's awesome gas milage, and the only repair that it ever needed was a wheel bearing 5 years ago."

From Google AI:

"While it's impossible to know the exact number, a "fair number" of the first-generation Toyota Prius (1997-2003) are still on the road. Toyota doesn't have precise estimates, as its data only goes back 10 years. They sold 52,171 in the U.S. during that time. New batteries are still being made and cost $2000 in 2018.

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