EV Deep Dive - Ford/Toyota

[Chops]

Very interesting analysis of how Chinese EV’s are forcing Toyota & Ford to “abandon ship” and “build an ark” respectively.

Toyota is abandoning its long established dependence on JIT & CI, while Ford is building an ark to survive the upcoming controlled demolition of Ford…

It is an hour long video that most won’t watch - but those that do will gain some insights into the purpose of Ford’s EV skunkworks. With insights into the current relationship between the Ford CEO and the Ford Family - along with the impact of the Unions & their pensions and the Dealer Network too.

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[The Cyber Orange Guy.]

Sign me in. I gonna watch it.

 

[Scott Asheville]

I'll watch it, but I already know that obstacles the American OEMs are facing. TBD if they will survive the 2030s. Absent incredible change, zero chance they keep current market share, which is a fraction of what Detroit enjoyed back in the day.

• Unions. Enough said. Unions killed GM, until the taxpayer stepped in to resurrrect it.
• Arrogance. If you listen to the American OEMs, they're an arrogant bunch. Even American journalists based in Michigan are arrogant and insular.
• Lack of coherent and consistent national industrial policy. You can't run a business when the rules swing dramatically every 4 years. Leading to tens of billions in writeoffs.
• Company culture. It's not enough that the CEO sees the problem. He/she has tens of thousands of employees set in their ways and not seeing past their noses. Good luck getting them to see an inch past their next paycheck.
• A stock market obsessed with quarterly results. Leading to short term decisions that pad CEO bonuses while killing the company. See Stellantis and Carlos Tavares.
• Nimble, unencumbered American challengers. Tesla. Rivian. Bad mouth them if you want, but they are vertically integrated and they move fast. Their tech stack is 5 years ahead of Detroit, as exampled by Rivian being paid billions by VW for their software and electrical system.
• And of course, superior competition from abroad. Not just the Chinese, but the Koreans and the Japanese.

 

[Cherokee]

I’m too old to care but I’ll watch the video anyway.
Will assume it’s all A I and chat GTP click bait.

 

[Chops]

I’m too old to care but I’ll watch the video anyway.
Will assume it’s all A I and chat GTP click bait.

Let’s just say it is not “AI Slop”.
It is interesting, insightful, and thought provoking AI - if you’re curious about EV manufacturing

I dislike “AI Slop” links very much. This is not one…

 

[Chops]

I'll watch it, but I already know that obstacles the American OEMs are facing. TBD if they will survive the 2030s. Absent incredible change, zero chance they keep current market share, which is a fraction of what Detroit enjoyed back in the day.

• Unions. Enough said. Unions killed GM, until the taxpayer stepped in to resurrrect it.
• Arrogance. If you listen to the American OEMs, they're an arrogant bunch. Even American journalists based in Michigan are arrogant and insular.
• Lack of coherent and consistent national industrial policy. You can't run a business when the rules swing dramatically every 4 years. Leading to tens of billions in writeoffs.
• Company culture. It's not enough that the CEO sees the problem. He/she has tens of thousands of employees set in their ways and not seeing past their noses. Good luck getting them to see an inch past their next paycheck.
• A stock market obsessed with quarterly results. Leading to short term decisions that pad CEO bonuses while killing the company. See Stellantis and Carlos Tavares.
• Nimble, unencumbered American challengers. Tesla. Rivian. Bad mouth them if you want, but they are vertically integrated and they move fast. Their tech stack is 5 years ahead of Detroit, as exampled by Rivian being paid billions by VW for their software and electrical system.
• And of course, superior competition from abroad. Not just the Chinese, but the Koreans and the Japanese.

Agree & the video touches on your points.

What surprised me was the Japanese move away from Just In Time (JIT) & Continuous Improvement (CI). Did not see that coming…

 

[Mavster Mechanic]

Those automakers that do not embrace EV quickly will go the way of Kodak.

Kodak: "Digital is a niche. It will never replace film."

U.S. Automaker: "EV is a niche. It will never replace ICE."

 

[Chops]

Those automakers that do not embrace EV quickly will go the way of Kodak.

Kodak: "Digital is a niche. It will never replace film."

U.S. Automaker: "EV is a niche. It will never replace ICE."

True. Although “EV is a niche” is a media statement not an automaker’s statement.

But as the video explained - moving too quick on a bad EV design is costly. GM, Ford, Toyota, and even Tesla learned that lesson the hard way.

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